UEFA Cup and Conference

Firstly, the UEFA Cup.

Bolton travel to Red Star Belgrade tonight minus Nicolas Anelka, Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan, Andy O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jussi Jaaskelainen all of whom have been left at home and rested and Ivan Campo who is not registered. They were thrashed 4-0 at the weekend while Red Star, who sit 2nd in the Serbian league, had the weekend off. Red Star must win to have any chance of qualifying and according to their coach will be going straight for the jugular tonight. Bolton will struggle for sure tonight, and although they have drawn all three matches so far they could well be facing their first loss, and possibly a heavy one... The odds seem way out to me...
Spurs travel tonight too and face Anderlecht in a battle of 1st vs 2nd knowing a win will see them through. Anderlecht know the same but have one match left after tonight while Spurs are done. Both sides will be going for the win, and this means one thing in a Spurs match... goals.
Finally Bordeaux host Helsingborgs in another game where surely goals are on the menu. In their last 12 games Bordeaux have scored 21 and conceded 19 while Helsingborgs have scored 31 and conceded 19. I'm going to cover some high scores...
4pts Red Star Belgrade to beat Bolton @ 2.34
3pts Anderlecht v Spurs Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 2-3 @ 60
0.6pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-2 @ 30
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-3 @ 85
1pt Bordeaux v Helsingborgs Unquoted @ 7.6

On to the Conference and on form Cambridge travel to out of form Kidderminster looking to extend their good run of 27 points out of the last possible 36... not much time for detail but they should carry on tonight
2pts Cambridge to beat Kidderminster @ 2.4


Oh dear... also backed Anderlecht in running for a point and everything has lost! Back to where I started the month!

Bugger

Total: -12pts
December so far: -0.02pts

Wednesday Premiership & UEFA Cup

One Premiership match tonight and a few UEFA Cup bets:

In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to a Newcastle side who have not won in 5 matches which includes heavy home defeats to Portsmouth and Liverpool. Arsenal are unbeaten this season in the League and will be looking to extend their lead at the top of the table to 6 points. Arsenal have a few injuries with Flamini joining Fabregas and Hleb on the treatment table but Newcastle have a defensive crisis and are also missing Owen. I think Arsenal will come out for the win all guns blazing and should do it now problem, but they can still be vulnerable at the back. With that in mind I have 2 bets on the game
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11


On to the UEFA Cup and first of all Everton host Russian League leaders Zenit. Everton are minus Yobo, Stubbs and Howard and I think they may struggle at the back. A win for Everton will mean they definitely qualify but they may have to wait tonight against a team who should be in the Champions League next season...
Also in Everton's group are Nurnburg and AZ Alkmaar. Nurnburg are struggling in the league but a win tonight should boost their confidence and set them up for a grand finale in the group stages...
Another team that can qualify tonight is Atletico Madrid with a win in Copenhagen. The Spanish side will be at full strength and should score a couple. Copenhagen meanwhile seem pretty toothless up front and this could be the difference.
Panathinaikos host Locomotiv Moscow in the same group where they have won 2 out of 2. They are a strong side at home and play a side winless in 7 games knowing a win will see them finish the group on top.
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02

Results:
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 - Lost 3pts
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8 - Lost 2.4pts
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46 - Won 2.77pts
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3 - Won 3.09pts
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02 - Won 3.88pts

Total: +3.34pts
December so far: +11.98pts

Sri Lanka v England 1st Test: Final

Just a final result update, Sri Lanka won (just) so it's a winner for me...

Total: +6.07pts
December so far: +8.64pts

Tuesday Champs League & English Leagues

And there is a fair bit of it. I'm off out to the Natwest Christmas Cocktail party at about 4ish so will try and get my bets up before I go:

First up is Milan v Celtic... and the draw at around evens is a mad price. Just because two teams don't need to win, doesn't mean they won't try to win or want to win. I was tempted to lay the draw, but Celtic, winning away in Europe? I'm not having that... so back Milan? Well, possibly, the odds are good, but I'm going for a couple of correct scores. Putting 2pts on what I see as the most likely correct scores will give me a profit of between 10 and 12pts if any of them come in unless I trade. I'm not sure if I'll be back in time to trade, and don't really like to if I've been out drinking, so they'll probably be left to it...
0.9pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 16.5
0.5pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 28
0.6pts AC Milan v Celtic Unquoted @ 21

Championship:
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94

League 1:
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1

League 2:
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91

Results:
2pts AC Milan v Celtic Scores - Lost 2pts
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64 - Won 2.77pts
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3 - Won 2.47pts
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94 - Lost 4pts
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1 - Lost 2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02 - Lost 3pts
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91 - Won 2.62pts

Total: -3.64pts
December so far: +2.57pts

Sri Lanka v England 1st Test: Update

The end of Day 4 approaches. Quite a pickle I got myself into over the last day or so, but hopefully I've turned it round, and as long as there is a result (which I think is more probable than the odds suggest) all is ok:

Current Position: SL +6.07pts / England +6.3pts / Draw -10pts

Monday Night Football

Two matches tonight, first in the Premiership where United host Fulham. United should win and win with ease, but that's reflected in the odds with United best priced 1.2 and short on the HT/FT market. The handicap of evens for -2 doesn't grab me either although I think it will be hit. I'm going the way of correct scores. 7.2 for 3-0 looks good, much better than the 3.7 for the unquoted score.

I'm going for 3-0 with a view to trade out at 2-0 and/or 3-0
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2

Also in the Championship where Scunthorpe host Blackpool. In their combined last 12 games these teams have 3 points between them but score goals:
Scunthorpe at home, 7 overs from 9
Blackpool away, 6 overs from 9
Blackpool have only failed to score twice in their last 18 league games and this game points to goals...
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12

Update: United 2-0 after 60 minutes and stake taken back @ 3.2
Update: 80 minutes and traded a little so 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 are all winning scores
Update: 2-0 United and a win through trading, meanwhile both Blackpool and Scunthorpe score, but it's 1-1

3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2 - Won 3.64pts
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 - Lost 2.5pts

Total: +1.14pts
December so far: +6.21pts

Sunday Football

After getting the month off on the wrong foot yesterday I'm looking for my first good Sunday in a while to get back on track.

First up Hibs travel to Aberdeen with the Dons having played and lost in Spain midweek. Their manager Jimmy Calderwood has already said he's worried about his team being tired and Hibs are at full strength and worth a cheeky point
1pt Hibs to win at Aberdeen @ 2.78

Watching the first 12 minutes of Harrogate Railway v Mansfield in the FA Cup and it's very open, both teams look like scoring so the 2.18 in running on the overs seems a decent bet.
2.5pts H.Railway v Mansfield Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18

Inter Milan have a fantastic away record and also a decent record against Fiorentina, odds of 2.64 on the win are too big.
2pts Inter to win at Fiorentina @ 2.64

Spurs host Birmingham today and are playing three strikers, while Birmingham have 5 in midfield, this match screams goals.
3.5pts Spurs v Birmingham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83
0.5pts Spurs to beat Birmingham 2-0 @ 7.4

I'm going to have my first French League bet of the season, it's a league I rarely bet on but I think I've found some value today. I always think teams are dangerous coming off the back of a spanking, and Bordeaux were spanked last weekend, and spanked good, going down 5-0 at Caen. Apart from that they're having a good season, sat 3rd in the League and very good at home. Toulouse on the other hand are poor, they've won once since 15th September and are particularly bad on the road. Bordeaux can win well today and make up for the last match, I expect them to start well and build from there, winning by two or three.
3pts Bordeaux -0.75 v Toulouse @ 1.97
0.5pts Bordeaux to beat Toulouse 3-0 @ 17.5

On to the Conference where league leaders Aldershot travel to Salisbury. Salisbury have won only 1 in the last 9 (league matches, 11 if counting the cup) and are missing top scorer Matt Tubbs. Granted Salisbury are better at home than away but Aldershot have won 6 of 9 away and a win puts further daylight between them and the chasing pack. It won't be a hammering but I feel a one or two goal win is the order of the day.
2.5pts Aldershot to win at Salisbury @ 2.24

And one final bet (not football though!) as it's the Premier League Snooker final between John Higgins and the Rocket. I'm backing Higgins here, O'Sullivan won 5-1 last night, but Hendry had chances in every frame, if Higgins gets the same chances he'll take them. Of course Ronnie may fly out and demolish Higgins, but at the odds the value is with Higgins
2.5pts Higgins to beat O'Sullivan @ 3


1pt Hibs to win at Aberdeen @ 2.78 - Lost -1pt
2.5pts H.Railway v Mansfield Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 - Won +2.8pts
2pts Inter to win at Fiorentina @ 2.64 - Won +3.11pts
3.5pts Spurs v Birmingham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 - Won +2.76pts
0.5pts Spurs to beat Birmingham 2-0 @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
3pts Bordeaux -0.75 v Toulouse @ 1.97 - Won +1.38pts
0.5pts Bordeaux to beat Toulouse 3-0 @ 17.5 - Lost -0.5pts
2.5pts Aldershot to win at Salisbury @ 2.24 - Won +2.95pts
2.5pts Higgins to beat O'Sullivan @ 3 - Lost -2.5pts

Total: +8.5pts
December so far: +5.07pts

Premier League Snooker Semi Final

After leaving the Ding v Higgins match alone I'm having a small bet on O'Sullivan v Hendry... Ronnie is fantastic at this type of snooker and is playing well, while Hendry is off form, the 9/1 on 5-0 to the Rocket is too much to resist.

1pt O'Sullivan to win 5-0 @ 10

Total: -1pt
December so far: -3.43pts

December 1st Football...

A slightly new direction on my Premiership write ups as any match that is a no bet game I won't be previewing... also the Villa v Arsenal match is an evening kick off so I'll preview that separately.

Chelsea v West Ham

On paper Chelsea should win this game, but they are missing a few players for the visit of West Ham with Essien, Cech, Ballack, Malouda, Carvalho and Ferreira all out. However the Hammers are missing their own fair share of players but will hopefully welcome Ashton and Bowyer back and they could cause Chelsea a few problems if they are on song. As a result I'm going to have a small play on the draw and hope that West Ham can frustrate for a while.

1pt Chelsea v West Ham to Draw @ 6


Blackburn v Newcastle

After going down 0-4 to Villa at Ewood Park midweek Blackburn will be hoping to bounce back against a Newcastle side that have been getting progressively worse as the season has unfolded. The fans have turned on Big Sam and there are rumours that the players are doing the same. To be fair Mark Hughes couldn't have really asked for a better fixture to get back on track and the home fans will be right behind their team as they look to beat a side that has scored three and won on each of their last two visits to Ewood. I think both teams will be looking to ensure there are no repeats of their last results so will hope to keep it tight at the back and as such the unders could be a decent place to start with a view to a possible trade

2.5pts Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92


Sunderland v Derby

Sunderland were battered last time out (7-1 at Everton) while Derby have been hammered a few times this season, today's result depends on how Sunderland bounce back. Roy Keane is the key here, he has gone on record about the 7-1 and he will learn a lot from it. Results like that happen to the best of managers and teams but I think this game will be a testament to the spirit Keane has instilled in his team and they'll show him what they're made of. Derby haven't scored away from home yet this season and I don't expect much relief today

1pt Sunderland to win 3-0 @ 17


Wigan v Manchester City

City with poor away form, Wigan gritty at home, City missing their talisman Elano, Wigan with a new manager. So many variables today means this could go many ways. I see Wigan holding, frustrating, stifling City in the same way they did with Liverpool earlier this season and Arsenal last week, but City under Sven, as I've said before are a different team than last year and they'll need to grind these results out in order to keep in their position towards the top of the table. This could be where they show their mettle.

1pt HT/FT Draw/City @ 7.8


Championship
2pts West Brom to win at Crystal Palace @ 2.48
2pts Sheffield United to win at Coventry @ 2.82
2.5pts Double Watford & Ipswich @ 2.77

FA Cup
3pts Bury to beat Exeter @ 1.88
2pts Brighton to win at Torquay @ 2.42

Scotland
1pt Hearts to beat Celtic @ 4.8
2.5pts Dundee to win at Dunfermline @ 2.22


Update: Layed the draw back at 56 minutes and 0-0 in the Chelsea game for a 3pts profit if it comes in, no loss if it doesn't.


Will update everything at the end of the day, but on to the evening matches, firstly Arsenal travel to Villa looking to stay unbeaten so far this season, Villa are on form and will give Arsenal a game but I think Arsenal will be too strong and in the same way United and Liverpool have done, come away with the win. Both teams also have a few defenders who can get on the score sheet so I've had a small punt on a couple of them.

I've also had an opening bet on the Watford game with a coupld of correct scores, I think Watford will beat Bristol City today and they're a free scoring side, once the first has gone in it could easily be two, three or more. Will also look at over 2.5 goals in play as Bristol City can bang them in too...

1pt HT/FT Draw/Arsenal @ 6.2
0.25pts Gallas FGS @ 29
0.25pts Laursen FGS @ 38
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-0 @ 15
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-1 @ 15

Update: Aresnal 2-1 up but both in the 1st half unfortunately, Villa pressing at the end though so:
LAY Arsenal to lose 1pt @ 1.1


No point starting a new post for this little snippet (as I imagine it's a loser - but worth a punt). Hope were awful on X-Factor tonight, but the public have saved them before so I'm going to have a cheeky half point on who I see as the two other eviction contenders, Leon and Niki
0.25pts Leon to go @ 37.6
0.25pts Niki to go @ 42


1pt Chelsea v West Ham to Draw @ 6 - Traded for no loss
2.5pts Blackburn v Newcastle Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 - Lost -2.5pts
1pt Sunderland to win 3-0 @ 17 - Lost -1pt
1pt HT/FT Draw/City @ 7.8 - Lost -1pt
2pts West Brom to win at Crystal Palace @ 2.48 - Lost -2pts
2pts Sheffield United to win at Coventry @ 2.82 - Won +3.46pts
2.5pts Double Watford & Ipswich @ 2.77 - Lost -2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Exeter @ 1.88 - Won +2.51pts
2pts Brighton to win at Torquay @ 2.42 - Won +2.7pts
1pt Hearts to beat Celtic @ 4.8 - Lost -1pt
2.5pts Dundee to win at Dunfermline @ 2.22 - Won +2.9pts
1pt HT/FT Draw/Arsenal @ 6.2 - Lost -1pt
0.25pts Gallas FGS @ 29 - Lost -0.25pts
0.25pts Laursen FGS @ 38 - Lost -0.25pts
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-0 @ 15 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-1 @ 15 - Lost -0.5pts
LAY Arsenal to lose 1pt @ 1.1 - Lost -1pt
0.25pts Leon to go @ 37.6 - Lost -0.25pts
0.25pts Niki to go @ 42 - Lost -0.25pts

Total: -2.43pts
December so far: -2.43pts

Sri Lanka v England 1st Test

December starts with a bang with the Test Series between Sri Lanka and England, but first we'll concentrate on the First Test in Kandy.

Kandy is a ground where the draw doesn't often come into play, but the forecasts for the next 5 days aren't great with thunderstorms due Sunday and Monday and an early sunset play may be restricted, I'm going to keep the draw in mind for my bets. Kandy is historically Sri Lanka's worst home ground results wise (the only ground they have lost more than they have won on with six wins and 9 defeats) and the venue is often low scoring.

Both the English batting and bowling line up are relatively inexperienced on the sub-continent but the fast bowlers will be encouraged by the pitch which has favoured the pace in the past and England's general record on the sub-continent is good and Sri Lanka's recent test performance isn't great.

I feel that at sub evens to back Sri Lanka are too low in the market while England and the draw are too high, my usual play would be to back England and hope they can either bat first and start to put on a total or they can get a couple of early wickets but with the worry about the weather I'm wanting the draw on side so will be laying Sri Lanka. With the match starting at 5am UK time I will miss at least the first couple of hours (probably more if I'm honest) so if Sri Lanka start with a bang either with the bat or the ball I could wake up to a pretty bad position... it could go the other way though.

If I'm trading on a cricket match I'll use a maximum larger than my normal bet, with my bank being as it is at the moment I'm setting my maximum exposure on the match at 10pts, but will be opening with a 5pts lay this morning @ 1.95 to open my exposure at 4.75pts

5pts LAY Sri Lanka v England @ 1.9


Update: Day 1 Lunch and Sri Lanka 86-5, lovely to wake up to... but the odds still have Lanka favourites... I've had to wee trade
Current position: SL -6pts / England +7.2pts / Draw Level
Update: SL out for 188 and England lose an early wicket, they're 4-1 but still SL are favourites, England have to be backed here at 2.2
Current Position: SL -10pts / England +11.77pts / Draw -4pts
Update: England finish the day on 49-1 hopefully they can build on that tomorrow
Current Position: SL -10pts / England +10.79pts / Draw +2.01pts