After bailing on Janice, I've gone back in with two points at 7. She's getting most of the coverage and is the one getting put up for most trials. Her odds have been creeping in again and I think they will more, especially if she passes a couple of trials
Current book
Janice wins and I win over 22pts... any other in there is a 2pts loss.
Saturday, 17 November 2007
Friday, 16 November 2007
Saturday Sport
Well, mainly (if not all) football. I'm off out early tomorrow to watch my team so posting the bets tonight. I'm going to take it pretty easy with it being an international weekend.
Firstly, to the most important match of the weekend where Scotland host Italy, knowing a win will see them through to Euro 2008 while if they draw they will need the Ukraine to do them a favour and beat France on Wednesday. Italy know a draw should be good enough for them to progress as they play the Faroe Islands in their last game.
Italy won the first match between the teams with two goals from Luca Toni and he will be the big threat tomorrow. Scotland have been fantastic this campaign and they will be roared on to qualifying by a packed Hampden Park... if they get through they will deserve it, but I fear Italy is one step too far for them. I think the only chance they have is to attack, attack and attack while Italy sit back and look to counter.
Italy's record in Glasgow is 2 draws and 1 defeat and it won't be easy to change this tomorrow. I think it'll be tight and nervy, but they did it against France, so why not against the World Champions? It's not a match to bet big on so I'm having just the one point on the Scots shocking the World...
1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5
The important match for England's chances takes place in Israel where Russia are the visitors. If Russia win they're through at England's expense and they're big odds on to do so, with talk of Israeli players being bought off etc. What rubbish, Israel will treat this as any other game. They're strong at home, hard to break down and organised. These teams are much closer than the odds suggest, which are balmy. The draw looks the bet here with just a single point on.
In the other game in the group sees Croatia travel to Macedonia knowing a point will be enough to qualify. Croatia are odds on again but I feel they may not go all out, they don't need to... Another one to play small and a single point on the draw here too...
1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5
Germany have already qualified, but know finishing 2nd in their group will guarantee 2nd seeding in the Championships. As 3 of the 4 first seeds are Greece, Austria and Switzerland there are obviously advantages to being seeded second and avoiding some of the other big guns. Maybe a few bad misses will do Germany a power of good... or am I being too cynical?
1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17
The rest of the Euro2008 matches I'm leaving well alone. In the rest of the league matches there are a couple of bets, Leeds on the Asians with a home record of 6-1-0 against poor travellers in Swindon. I'm also taking MK Dons who top League 2 to win at 4th placed Chester who are far better on the road than at the Diva stadium. I'm also having a cheeky point on Brighton to come away from over-rated Orient with a win.
Finally an in form Exeter, unbeaten at home who have just drawn too many matches look good value against a Burton side who, although unbeaten away (both have 3-6-0 records), have a couple of injury doubts. Maybe another win can propel Exeter into what should be a good run of results.
3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32
Hopefully a few points profit from a day of not many great betting opportunities.
Update: A late, late Israel goal and a Macedonia win have hit me today, two lays would have paid dividends... will fully update after the X Factor elimination, but while at football today I was given a tip in the 9.20, so I'm having a small bet on
1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7
Update: The horse wins... which is good as from the bottom two in X Factor, Alisha and Hope, Sharon is left with no acts as Alisha is sent home!
1.5pts Niki @ 12 - Lost -1.5pts
0.5pts Hope @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17 - Lost -1pt
3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06 - PUSH
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52 - Won +2.83pts
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35 - Lost -1pt
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32 - Lost -2pts
1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7 - Won +4.47pts
Total: -1.65pts
November so far: +11.93pts
Firstly, to the most important match of the weekend where Scotland host Italy, knowing a win will see them through to Euro 2008 while if they draw they will need the Ukraine to do them a favour and beat France on Wednesday. Italy know a draw should be good enough for them to progress as they play the Faroe Islands in their last game.
Italy won the first match between the teams with two goals from Luca Toni and he will be the big threat tomorrow. Scotland have been fantastic this campaign and they will be roared on to qualifying by a packed Hampden Park... if they get through they will deserve it, but I fear Italy is one step too far for them. I think the only chance they have is to attack, attack and attack while Italy sit back and look to counter.
Italy's record in Glasgow is 2 draws and 1 defeat and it won't be easy to change this tomorrow. I think it'll be tight and nervy, but they did it against France, so why not against the World Champions? It's not a match to bet big on so I'm having just the one point on the Scots shocking the World...
1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5
The important match for England's chances takes place in Israel where Russia are the visitors. If Russia win they're through at England's expense and they're big odds on to do so, with talk of Israeli players being bought off etc. What rubbish, Israel will treat this as any other game. They're strong at home, hard to break down and organised. These teams are much closer than the odds suggest, which are balmy. The draw looks the bet here with just a single point on.
In the other game in the group sees Croatia travel to Macedonia knowing a point will be enough to qualify. Croatia are odds on again but I feel they may not go all out, they don't need to... Another one to play small and a single point on the draw here too...
1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5
Germany have already qualified, but know finishing 2nd in their group will guarantee 2nd seeding in the Championships. As 3 of the 4 first seeds are Greece, Austria and Switzerland there are obviously advantages to being seeded second and avoiding some of the other big guns. Maybe a few bad misses will do Germany a power of good... or am I being too cynical?
1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17
The rest of the Euro2008 matches I'm leaving well alone. In the rest of the league matches there are a couple of bets, Leeds on the Asians with a home record of 6-1-0 against poor travellers in Swindon. I'm also taking MK Dons who top League 2 to win at 4th placed Chester who are far better on the road than at the Diva stadium. I'm also having a cheeky point on Brighton to come away from over-rated Orient with a win.
Finally an in form Exeter, unbeaten at home who have just drawn too many matches look good value against a Burton side who, although unbeaten away (both have 3-6-0 records), have a couple of injury doubts. Maybe another win can propel Exeter into what should be a good run of results.
3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32
Hopefully a few points profit from a day of not many great betting opportunities.
Update: A late, late Israel goal and a Macedonia win have hit me today, two lays would have paid dividends... will fully update after the X Factor elimination, but while at football today I was given a tip in the 9.20, so I'm having a small bet on
1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7
Update: The horse wins... which is good as from the bottom two in X Factor, Alisha and Hope, Sharon is left with no acts as Alisha is sent home!
1.5pts Niki @ 12 - Lost -1.5pts
0.5pts Hope @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17 - Lost -1pt
3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06 - PUSH
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52 - Won +2.83pts
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35 - Lost -1pt
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32 - Lost -2pts
1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7 - Won +4.47pts
Total: -1.65pts
November so far: +11.93pts
Friday's Football
25 minutes in to England U21 v Bulgaria U21 and Bulgaria are looking the better side. They're having chances and look strong. Their odds have come in from 17.5 pre match to 10.5 and even with the reduction in odds they look worth a speculative point
1pt Bulgaria U21 to beat England U21 @ 10.5
Update: After 40 minutes against the run of play England go 1-0 up, however it's still all Bulgaria and they probably should have scored twice since the goal so I've layed a bit of England and taken a bit more of Bulgaria
0.75pts Lay England U21 @ 1.14
0.25pts Back Bulgaria U21 @ 55
England (full team) odds on away from home... You must be joking! Not tonight though... they play Austria, who are utter rubbish. If they had to qualify for Euro 2008 they could be propping up their group. England will be looking to go into Wednesday's match on a high and I can see them winning and winning well, the odds on the Asian Handicap are well worth taking. I'm also looking at Crouch to be a menace with Beckham supplying his airborne ammunition.
Also having a touch on 3-0 to England with a view to trade...
4pts England to beat Austria -0.75 @ 2.09
0.5pts Crouch FGS @ 8.4
1pt England to win 3-0 @ 14.5
Full time: U21s win 2-0, senior side 1-0
1pt Bulgaria U21 to beat England U21 @ 10.5 - Lost -1pt
0.75pts Lay England U21 @ 1.14 - Lost -0.75pts
0.25pts Back Bulgaria U21 @ 55 - Lost -0.25pts
4pts England to beat Austria -0.75 @ 2.09 - Won +2.07pts
0.5pts Crouch FGS @ 8.4 - Won +3.52pts
1pt England to win 3-0 @ 14.5 - Lost -1pts
Total: +2.59pts
November so far: +13.58pts
1pt Bulgaria U21 to beat England U21 @ 10.5
Update: After 40 minutes against the run of play England go 1-0 up, however it's still all Bulgaria and they probably should have scored twice since the goal so I've layed a bit of England and taken a bit more of Bulgaria
0.75pts Lay England U21 @ 1.14
0.25pts Back Bulgaria U21 @ 55
England (full team) odds on away from home... You must be joking! Not tonight though... they play Austria, who are utter rubbish. If they had to qualify for Euro 2008 they could be propping up their group. England will be looking to go into Wednesday's match on a high and I can see them winning and winning well, the odds on the Asian Handicap are well worth taking. I'm also looking at Crouch to be a menace with Beckham supplying his airborne ammunition.
Also having a touch on 3-0 to England with a view to trade...
4pts England to beat Austria -0.75 @ 2.09
0.5pts Crouch FGS @ 8.4
1pt England to win 3-0 @ 14.5
Full time: U21s win 2-0, senior side 1-0
1pt Bulgaria U21 to beat England U21 @ 10.5 - Lost -1pt
0.75pts Lay England U21 @ 1.14 - Lost -0.75pts
0.25pts Back Bulgaria U21 @ 55 - Lost -0.25pts
4pts England to beat Austria -0.75 @ 2.09 - Won +2.07pts
0.5pts Crouch FGS @ 8.4 - Won +3.52pts
1pt England to win 3-0 @ 14.5 - Lost -1pts
Total: +2.59pts
November so far: +13.58pts
Thursday, 15 November 2007
I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here! Update...
Her odds shot down to under 6, but failure to do the trials has led to a drift... I've layed Janice to get out of the bet @ 10.58 for a current no loss situation of 11pts if she wins, no loss if she doesn't... can't see it though unfortunately
X Factor 5th Elimination
Ok, this week's songs are:
Alisha Young - Young Hearts Run Free
Beverley - I’m Every Woman
Hope - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (a Man After Midnight)
Leon - Relight My Fire
Niki - Hot Stuff
Rhydian - Go West
Same Difference - Feels Like I’m In Love
Rhydian is safe no matter what, I also feel Same Difference are safe (as I've pointed out before, they could win the thing and can actually sing!), and Alisha - virtue of the fact she is Sharon's last act and if in the bottom two I think they will keep her in to ensure Sharon still has an act.
This leaves Beverley, Hope, Leon and Niki. Beverley and Hope's song choices are strong as is Leon's while I think Niki may struggle with hers. Beverley's I feel is the strongest of the lot, could be a very good week for her. I also feel that Leon has the fanbase, which, combined with a Take That song will be enough.
Although Niki can sing I feel she is really going to struggle with the song and will be in the bottom two. If she is I think more than likely it'll be either Hope or Alisha in there with her. If it is Alisha then she is saved - if it is Hope then it is touch and go as I think it will go to the audience vote...
Main bet on Niki to go with a saver on Hope.
1.5pts Niki @ 12
0.5pts Hope @ 7.4
Alisha Young - Young Hearts Run Free
Beverley - I’m Every Woman
Hope - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (a Man After Midnight)
Leon - Relight My Fire
Niki - Hot Stuff
Rhydian - Go West
Same Difference - Feels Like I’m In Love
Rhydian is safe no matter what, I also feel Same Difference are safe (as I've pointed out before, they could win the thing and can actually sing!), and Alisha - virtue of the fact she is Sharon's last act and if in the bottom two I think they will keep her in to ensure Sharon still has an act.
This leaves Beverley, Hope, Leon and Niki. Beverley and Hope's song choices are strong as is Leon's while I think Niki may struggle with hers. Beverley's I feel is the strongest of the lot, could be a very good week for her. I also feel that Leon has the fanbase, which, combined with a Take That song will be enough.
Although Niki can sing I feel she is really going to struggle with the song and will be in the bottom two. If she is I think more than likely it'll be either Hope or Alisha in there with her. If it is Alisha then she is saved - if it is Hope then it is touch and go as I think it will go to the audience vote...
Main bet on Niki to go with a saver on Hope.
1.5pts Niki @ 12
0.5pts Hope @ 7.4
Snooker!!
Not much going on tonight so I'm playing the snooker. Snooker is a sport that I enjoy watching but rarely bet on, however when I do I tend to do ok. Tonight there are two Premier League matches... Best of 6 frames which brings the draw into play. The current table stands as:
Hendry W 4 D 1 L 0 PTS 9
Ding W 3 D 1 L 0 PTS 7
O'SullivanW 3 D 0 L 2 PTS 6
Davis W 2 D 0 L 2 PTS 4
White W 0 D 3 L 2 PTS 3
Higgins W 0 D 2 L 2 PTS 2
Robertson W 0 D 1 L 3 PTS 1
Tonight the matches are Ding v Higgins and O'Sullivan v Robertson. Hendry, Ding & Ronnie are through as Davis plays Higgins next week meaning only one more place in the semi finals is up for grabs.
Both Robertson & Higgins must win, but like with anything else, that doesn't mean they will do. Higgins is out of form while Ding is the form player (beating Davis 6-0 last time out) while Robertson is also struggling, especially with break building (he also struggles with the shot clock). Although both Ding and O'Sullivan have qualified I think they'll win tonight... and win well. If either of them turn it on it could be a possible whitewash...
3.5pts Ding to beat Higgins @ 2.58
5pts O'Sullivan to beat Robertson @ 1.77
0.5pts Ding to win 6-0 @ 26
0.5pts O'Sullivan to win 6-0 @ 14
Update: Awful start for Ding... 3-0 down but cannot play any worse... the Ding win bet and 6-0 has gone, but surely Ding has some pride.
1.5pts Ding to draw with Higgins @ 7
Update: Ding had chances with the draw but the mistakes made cost dearly and he lost 2-4. had the chance to level out for no loss, but didn't take it and it's a big loss to start the evening! Come on O'Sul to salvage something!!!
Update: O'Sullivan races into a 5-0 lead and wins the match, I've layed a bit on the 6-0 so the profit is 4.6pts if it is 6-0 and 2.3 if it finishes 5-1
And a good job as a century break for Robertson makes it 5-1. Somehow a winning night!
3.5pts Ding to beat Higgins @ 2.58 - Lost -3.5pts
5pts O'Sullivan to beat Robertson @ 1.77 - Won +3.66pts
0.5pts Ding to win 6-0 @ 26 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts O'Sullivan to win 6-0 @ 14 - Won +2.34pts
1.5pts Ding to draw with Higgins @ 7 - Lost -1.5pts
Total: +0.5pts
November so far: +10.99pts
Hendry W 4 D 1 L 0 PTS 9
Ding W 3 D 1 L 0 PTS 7
O'SullivanW 3 D 0 L 2 PTS 6
Davis W 2 D 0 L 2 PTS 4
White W 0 D 3 L 2 PTS 3
Higgins W 0 D 2 L 2 PTS 2
Robertson W 0 D 1 L 3 PTS 1
Tonight the matches are Ding v Higgins and O'Sullivan v Robertson. Hendry, Ding & Ronnie are through as Davis plays Higgins next week meaning only one more place in the semi finals is up for grabs.
Both Robertson & Higgins must win, but like with anything else, that doesn't mean they will do. Higgins is out of form while Ding is the form player (beating Davis 6-0 last time out) while Robertson is also struggling, especially with break building (he also struggles with the shot clock). Although both Ding and O'Sullivan have qualified I think they'll win tonight... and win well. If either of them turn it on it could be a possible whitewash...
3.5pts Ding to beat Higgins @ 2.58
5pts O'Sullivan to beat Robertson @ 1.77
0.5pts Ding to win 6-0 @ 26
0.5pts O'Sullivan to win 6-0 @ 14
Update: Awful start for Ding... 3-0 down but cannot play any worse... the Ding win bet and 6-0 has gone, but surely Ding has some pride.
1.5pts Ding to draw with Higgins @ 7
Update: Ding had chances with the draw but the mistakes made cost dearly and he lost 2-4. had the chance to level out for no loss, but didn't take it and it's a big loss to start the evening! Come on O'Sul to salvage something!!!
Update: O'Sullivan races into a 5-0 lead and wins the match, I've layed a bit on the 6-0 so the profit is 4.6pts if it is 6-0 and 2.3 if it finishes 5-1
And a good job as a century break for Robertson makes it 5-1. Somehow a winning night!
3.5pts Ding to beat Higgins @ 2.58 - Lost -3.5pts
5pts O'Sullivan to beat Robertson @ 1.77 - Won +3.66pts
0.5pts Ding to win 6-0 @ 26 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts O'Sullivan to win 6-0 @ 14 - Won +2.34pts
1.5pts Ding to draw with Higgins @ 7 - Lost -1.5pts
Total: +0.5pts
November so far: +10.99pts
Tuesday, 13 November 2007
Johnstone's Paint Trophy
Tonight is the turn of the lower league cup, currently called the Johnstone's Paint Trophy.
There are a couple of matches of interest tonight, the main one of interest being MK Dons at Bournemouth. MK are a strong team and quite deservedly favourites to win League 2, they've a very good away record and will be looking to progress against a Bournemouth side who sit 3rd bottom in League 1 with no home wins and if reports are to be believed missing up to 7 key players. They struggled to find 11 players for their draw with non-league Barrow on Saturday, I backed Barrow on this blog to small stakes and they were unlucky not to win. I'm taking MK to go one better and win tonight in one of my strongest bets of the season...
I'm also going pretty on Doncaster to beat Grimsby. Doncaster are Trophy holders and are doing well in League 1 looking for a play-off place, while Grimsby are struggling at the foot of League 2. Both teams are missing players, but Doncaster are much stronger, and with the away fans expected to possibly equal the home support this will be like a home match for them...
5pts MK Dons to beat Bournemouth @ 2.56
3pts Doncaster to beat Grimsby @ 2
0.5pts Doncaster to win 0-3 @ 26
I've also gone for a small accumulator on Carlisle, Hartlepool, Leeds & Doncaster 1pt @ 6.39
Update: Doncaster are 1-1 so the 0-3 has gone, but MK Dons are 2 up after 20 minutes... I've layed at 1.13 for a profit of just over 6pts if they win, just over 5pts any other result.
Update: Doncaster 1-2 down now... I've thought back to cup shocks in England and if they can happen here why not abroad. Barcelona are 0-0 at lower league Alcoyano tonight in their 1st leg cup tie (after 15 minutes)... I've taken a speculative point that the minnows hold on @ 20
1pt Alcoyano v Barca 0-0 @ 20
and within a few minutes Barca score... oh well, I've had better bets
Update: Doncaster draw and it's a slight winning night so far, but with 15 minutes left in the MK Dons match I'm going for another bet... it's 0-2 and another goal looks pretty likely so I'm on overs:
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72
A lesson in how not to bet... two extra bets turn the evening into a losing one, and bloody Barca only won 0-1 to cap it off!
5pts MK Dons to beat Bournemouth @ 2.56 - Won +6.15pts
3pts Doncaster to beat Grimsby @ 2 - Lost -3pts
0.5pts Doncaster to win 0-3 @ 26 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Accumulator @ 6.39 - Lost -1pts
1pt Alcoyano v Barca 0-0 @ 20 - Lost -1pts
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72 - Lost -1.5pts
Total: -0.85pts
November so far: +10.49pts
There are a couple of matches of interest tonight, the main one of interest being MK Dons at Bournemouth. MK are a strong team and quite deservedly favourites to win League 2, they've a very good away record and will be looking to progress against a Bournemouth side who sit 3rd bottom in League 1 with no home wins and if reports are to be believed missing up to 7 key players. They struggled to find 11 players for their draw with non-league Barrow on Saturday, I backed Barrow on this blog to small stakes and they were unlucky not to win. I'm taking MK to go one better and win tonight in one of my strongest bets of the season...
I'm also going pretty on Doncaster to beat Grimsby. Doncaster are Trophy holders and are doing well in League 1 looking for a play-off place, while Grimsby are struggling at the foot of League 2. Both teams are missing players, but Doncaster are much stronger, and with the away fans expected to possibly equal the home support this will be like a home match for them...
5pts MK Dons to beat Bournemouth @ 2.56
3pts Doncaster to beat Grimsby @ 2
0.5pts Doncaster to win 0-3 @ 26
I've also gone for a small accumulator on Carlisle, Hartlepool, Leeds & Doncaster 1pt @ 6.39
Update: Doncaster are 1-1 so the 0-3 has gone, but MK Dons are 2 up after 20 minutes... I've layed at 1.13 for a profit of just over 6pts if they win, just over 5pts any other result.
Update: Doncaster 1-2 down now... I've thought back to cup shocks in England and if they can happen here why not abroad. Barcelona are 0-0 at lower league Alcoyano tonight in their 1st leg cup tie (after 15 minutes)... I've taken a speculative point that the minnows hold on @ 20
1pt Alcoyano v Barca 0-0 @ 20
and within a few minutes Barca score... oh well, I've had better bets
Update: Doncaster draw and it's a slight winning night so far, but with 15 minutes left in the MK Dons match I'm going for another bet... it's 0-2 and another goal looks pretty likely so I'm on overs:
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72
A lesson in how not to bet... two extra bets turn the evening into a losing one, and bloody Barca only won 0-1 to cap it off!
5pts MK Dons to beat Bournemouth @ 2.56 - Won +6.15pts
3pts Doncaster to beat Grimsby @ 2 - Lost -3pts
0.5pts Doncaster to win 0-3 @ 26 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Accumulator @ 6.39 - Lost -1pts
1pt Alcoyano v Barca 0-0 @ 20 - Lost -1pts
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72 - Lost -1.5pts
Total: -0.85pts
November so far: +10.49pts
Monday, 12 November 2007
Monday Night Football
Two games of interest tonight, Reading host Arsenal and West Brom travel to Coventry.
First up, the Championship game, where West Brom take their indifferent away form to Coventry who are just as up and down at home. I feel this match will be a tight game and with both teams missing strikers I think that chances could be few and far between. I'm not one to usually go for a low scoring match, but I feel this could be what happens tonight. There's just not a lot to go on attacking wise (cue the goals!)
2.5pts Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06
0.5pts Coventry v West Brom 0-0 @ 12
In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to Reading knowing a win by 2 or more goals will take them top while Reading look for their 5th home win in 7 games. Away from home Reading are awful, there are no two ways about it, but at home they tend to get results. That said Arsenal came here last season and demolished them (0-4).
Reading will be out to frustrate and could well do that and it's a hard game to bet on... the odds on Arsenal are too short for a play on the away side and the score may be close, so I'm loathe to back them on the handicap market. I do think Arsenal will score, but think they may also concede - so the clean sheet market is out of the window.
There isn't really anything for me on this match except one small first goalscorer bet. Gallas got the late equaliser against United last week, his first of the season. He scored 3 times last season and I'm going to have a speculative half point on him doubling his tally this term.
0.5pts Gallas to score first @ 30
Update: 0-0 at half time at Coventry with the home side a man down, I've layed off my stake for a no loss if it is over 2.5 goals or a 2pts profit if under. I'm holding onto the 0-0 for now, may lay later...
However Flamini made it 1-0 for Arsenal just before half time, so the Gallas bet is down
Update: 2 in 2 minutes for West Brom and the 0-0 is down... glad I layed off the unders now!
Update: Another Brom goal... still no loss on that one.
2.5pts Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06 - Traded out for no loss
0.5pts Coventry v West Brom 0-0 @ 12 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Gallas to score first @ 30 - Lost -0.5pts
Total: -1pts
November so far: +11.34pts
First up, the Championship game, where West Brom take their indifferent away form to Coventry who are just as up and down at home. I feel this match will be a tight game and with both teams missing strikers I think that chances could be few and far between. I'm not one to usually go for a low scoring match, but I feel this could be what happens tonight. There's just not a lot to go on attacking wise (cue the goals!)
2.5pts Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06
0.5pts Coventry v West Brom 0-0 @ 12
In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to Reading knowing a win by 2 or more goals will take them top while Reading look for their 5th home win in 7 games. Away from home Reading are awful, there are no two ways about it, but at home they tend to get results. That said Arsenal came here last season and demolished them (0-4).
Reading will be out to frustrate and could well do that and it's a hard game to bet on... the odds on Arsenal are too short for a play on the away side and the score may be close, so I'm loathe to back them on the handicap market. I do think Arsenal will score, but think they may also concede - so the clean sheet market is out of the window.
There isn't really anything for me on this match except one small first goalscorer bet. Gallas got the late equaliser against United last week, his first of the season. He scored 3 times last season and I'm going to have a speculative half point on him doubling his tally this term.
0.5pts Gallas to score first @ 30
Update: 0-0 at half time at Coventry with the home side a man down, I've layed off my stake for a no loss if it is over 2.5 goals or a 2pts profit if under. I'm holding onto the 0-0 for now, may lay later...
However Flamini made it 1-0 for Arsenal just before half time, so the Gallas bet is down
Update: 2 in 2 minutes for West Brom and the 0-0 is down... glad I layed off the unders now!
Update: Another Brom goal... still no loss on that one.
2.5pts Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06 - Traded out for no loss
0.5pts Coventry v West Brom 0-0 @ 12 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Gallas to score first @ 30 - Lost -0.5pts
Total: -1pts
November so far: +11.34pts
I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!
And another 'specials' bet with the ITV programme returning tonight.
Before I begin, I have allocated a liability of no more than 10pts at any time to this market, although I will try and keep the liability below this...
So far we have the following competitiors announced:
Gemma Atkinson - Actress Hollyoaks
Marc Bannerman - Actor Eastenders
Jason 'J' Brown - Formerly of the boyband Five
John Burton Race - Chef, famous for the show French Leave
Janice Dickinson - 70s supermodel and former judge on America's Next Top Model
Lynne Franks - Public Relations guru
Rodney Marsh - Footballer of the '60s and '70s and controversial ex-Sky Sports pundit
Cerys Matthews - Singer with the band Catatonia
Anna Ryder Richardson - Changing Rooms designer
Malcolm McLaren has already walked prior to the show and his replacement has not yet been announced.
The betting has set itself very much like the start of previous I'm a Celebrity shows with the favourites the well known soap stars etc, with the less well know almost automatically given the position of outsider.
This is one of the reasons why I think Janice Dickinson is a great bet to emulate other outsiders in Carol Thatcher and Matt Willis and win the thing. The former supermodel is a wild woman at the best of times, as can be seen from her prior conquests in and out of the bedroom. She'll be the life and soul, which added to the fact she is utterly, genuinely hilarious makes her a character I believe the public will take to their hearts very quickly.
If people knew more about her then her odds would be a lot shorter, I'm certain of that. They're already coming in as people find out more about her... this interview with Jonathan Ross shows her well on form. I was hoping people didn't find her out for a while and the odds would lengthen before coming in so I missed some of the slightly bigger prices. However her price is still great value.
I've already taken 2pts and am looking to top up for a maximum exposure on her of 4pts, giving me 6pts to play with before hitting the maximum.
Update: 3pts on Janice
I've taken her so far at average odds of 14.45
3pts Janice Dickinson @ 14.45
Before I begin, I have allocated a liability of no more than 10pts at any time to this market, although I will try and keep the liability below this...
So far we have the following competitiors announced:
Gemma Atkinson - Actress Hollyoaks
Marc Bannerman - Actor Eastenders
Jason 'J' Brown - Formerly of the boyband Five
John Burton Race - Chef, famous for the show French Leave
Janice Dickinson - 70s supermodel and former judge on America's Next Top Model
Lynne Franks - Public Relations guru
Rodney Marsh - Footballer of the '60s and '70s and controversial ex-Sky Sports pundit
Cerys Matthews - Singer with the band Catatonia
Anna Ryder Richardson - Changing Rooms designer
Malcolm McLaren has already walked prior to the show and his replacement has not yet been announced.
The betting has set itself very much like the start of previous I'm a Celebrity shows with the favourites the well known soap stars etc, with the less well know almost automatically given the position of outsider.
This is one of the reasons why I think Janice Dickinson is a great bet to emulate other outsiders in Carol Thatcher and Matt Willis and win the thing. The former supermodel is a wild woman at the best of times, as can be seen from her prior conquests in and out of the bedroom. She'll be the life and soul, which added to the fact she is utterly, genuinely hilarious makes her a character I believe the public will take to their hearts very quickly.
If people knew more about her then her odds would be a lot shorter, I'm certain of that. They're already coming in as people find out more about her... this interview with Jonathan Ross shows her well on form. I was hoping people didn't find her out for a while and the odds would lengthen before coming in so I missed some of the slightly bigger prices. However her price is still great value.
I've already taken 2pts and am looking to top up for a maximum exposure on her of 4pts, giving me 6pts to play with before hitting the maximum.
Update: 3pts on Janice
I've taken her so far at average odds of 14.45
3pts Janice Dickinson @ 14.45
Sunday, 11 November 2007
Super Sunday
And it is as well with no less than six Premiership games plus a plethora of others around Europe.
Birmingham v Aston Villa
First up is the Midlands derby with the 1pm kick off as Villa travel the small distance across the city having not won away yet this season, losing 1 and drawing 3, but if you look at the games they should have got at least a point at Manchester City where they were the better team and hit with something of a sucker punch, they lost a 3 goal lead at Spurs, and in all reality should have beaten Bolton too. Birmingham meanwhile have a mixed record at home (2-1-2) where they have kept it very tight in the main. However I expect today to be different.
Villa are coming into a bit of form and bar their home defeat to Manchester United they haven't lost in their last six games while Birmingham have lost 4 and won just one of theirs. I expect this game to be fairly similar to the Tyne-Tees derby yesterday but I think that unlike Newcastle did Villa will have too much for Birmingham and edge a tight, nervy affair at what is a decent price.
1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7
Chelsea v Everton
Both clubs come into this game off the back of good results in Europe midweek, the point for Chelsea and a win for Everton, and this could, quite possibly be the game of the day. Both sides have a few injuries - Cech, Terry and Ferreira for Chelsea - Johnson, Arteta, Baines, Stubbs and Vaughan for Everton. The most telling stat for me in this game, as it is with most Chelsea home games, is that they haven't lost at Stamford Bridge for 46 games! This run will come to an end at some time, but I don't see today as that day. I just don't think Everton will have enough to beat Chelsea, and I'm loathe to back the blues at odds of circa 1.4 against a team of Everton's undoubted quality.
So, where do we go? The 'no bet' is always an option, but I feel that a correct score may pay dividends. I think with Chelsea's defensive injuries Everton can break through and score at some point, I also think Chelsea should win, and as a rule they don't tend to score many... 2-1 it is.
0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4
Bolton v Middlesbrough
Hmm... this one looks fun! Two poor teams face off at the Reebok today, two teams who currently sit in the bottom 5 of the table and who could easily be in the bottom 5 at the end of the season. Bolton will be on a high following their great comeback in Munich midweek but are on a run of 4 home games without a win, while 'Boro have lost their last 5 away. It doesn't really make for the most exciting of matches on paper.
However I think Megson has got something going already at Bolton, he seems to be quickly winning around the fans who were opposed to his appointment (I think the Bayern result went a long way towards doing this). Bolton also took a weakened squad to Germany in preparation for this game and will be fired up to achieve their 2nd home win of the season. It's not a game to be betting big on, but I think they may just do it, but with Anelka out and Diouf suspended it'll be a game I pass on.
Manchester United v Blackburn
Two of the form teams in the Premiership, United unbeaten at home, Blackburn unbeaten away, United scoring for fun, Blackburn tight at the back. All is set for what should be a good game.
United will be missing the injured Wayne Rooney while Reid isn't in the Blackburn travelling party. I think Blackburn will come to keep it tight and frustrate, and they'll do it well. This isn't going to be a match where United score another four. However I think in the end United should have too much, and knowing a win will take them top (Arsenal play tomorrow) the result will be bashed out.
1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7
Spurs v Wigan
In much the same way I pointed out Bristol City were in a false position at the top of the Championship yesterday, Spurs are in a similar situation at the bottom of the Premiership. Wigan however are not.
With Wigan on a six game losing streak now is the ideal time for Ramos to get his first league win as Spurs boss and begin the slow crawl up the table. Managerless Wigan have an away record of 0-1-5 and this won't get any better today. The Spurs players are fighting for their positions under the new boss and today I feel a few of them may show him exactly what they can do. The odds are a bit skinny for me so I'm looking at Spurs to take the lead early and keep it.
2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12
Portsmouth v Manchester City
For City's 100% 7/7 record at home they've not looked great on the road (1-1-3) losing 0-6 last time out at Chelsea and I'm taking Pompey to pile on the pressure this afternoon. Pompey are also unbeaten at home and City seem to have reached a slightly sticky part of the season, struggling past Sunderland at the COMS last weekend while Pompey destroyed Newcastle away from home.
On their day Pompey can score, and score a lot and City are missing key defender Micah Richards through injury. I'm sure Sven has told City to keep it tight and solid, but the team he is building doesn't play like that... and due to this I think they will struggle. At just odds on Pompey appeal for a good size bet, but I'm splitting it over a couple of Asian Handicaps to give me a slightly better result if Pompey win by more than 1 goal.
2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19
A couple of cheeky accumulators too (I know!)
1pt Bolton, Dundee, Portsmouth, Tottenham, Man Utd @ 11.87
1pt Bolton 2-1, United 2-1, Spurs 2-1, Pompey 3-1 @ Various Odds (1 acca & 4 trebles 0.2 pts each)
Evening bets: Sorry, no time for putting up the reasoning:
Real with a 100% record at home should put on a show tonight, hoping for a couple of early goals...
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14
In the Villarreal v Sevilla match I'm going to go for goals again in a game with two teams in great attacking form, based on 3 or more goals with 3 breaking even...
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.94
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.23
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 5.88
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.48
If there are less than 3 goals it's a 5pts loss, otherwise a profit ranging from just under 1pt with 3 goals to over 12pts with 6+
Results:
A poor day after a good one yesterday saved in the last match of the day. With Pompey failing to score in their draw with City, due to the post, good 'keeping and the unexpected return of Richards... and Real going in level at half time despite being in the lead twice it looked bleak, but the goals in Spain means
1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7 - Won +2.42pts
0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4 - Lost -0.5pt
1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7 - Lost -1pt
2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12 - Won +2.13pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91 - Lost -2pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19 - Lost -2pts
1pt Acca - Lost -1pt
1pt Scores Acca - Lost -1pt
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14 - Lost -2pts
5pts Sevilla/Villarreal goals - Won +6.62pts
Total: +1.67pts
November so far: +12.34pts
Birmingham v Aston Villa
First up is the Midlands derby with the 1pm kick off as Villa travel the small distance across the city having not won away yet this season, losing 1 and drawing 3, but if you look at the games they should have got at least a point at Manchester City where they were the better team and hit with something of a sucker punch, they lost a 3 goal lead at Spurs, and in all reality should have beaten Bolton too. Birmingham meanwhile have a mixed record at home (2-1-2) where they have kept it very tight in the main. However I expect today to be different.
Villa are coming into a bit of form and bar their home defeat to Manchester United they haven't lost in their last six games while Birmingham have lost 4 and won just one of theirs. I expect this game to be fairly similar to the Tyne-Tees derby yesterday but I think that unlike Newcastle did Villa will have too much for Birmingham and edge a tight, nervy affair at what is a decent price.
1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7
Chelsea v Everton
Both clubs come into this game off the back of good results in Europe midweek, the point for Chelsea and a win for Everton, and this could, quite possibly be the game of the day. Both sides have a few injuries - Cech, Terry and Ferreira for Chelsea - Johnson, Arteta, Baines, Stubbs and Vaughan for Everton. The most telling stat for me in this game, as it is with most Chelsea home games, is that they haven't lost at Stamford Bridge for 46 games! This run will come to an end at some time, but I don't see today as that day. I just don't think Everton will have enough to beat Chelsea, and I'm loathe to back the blues at odds of circa 1.4 against a team of Everton's undoubted quality.
So, where do we go? The 'no bet' is always an option, but I feel that a correct score may pay dividends. I think with Chelsea's defensive injuries Everton can break through and score at some point, I also think Chelsea should win, and as a rule they don't tend to score many... 2-1 it is.
0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4
Bolton v Middlesbrough
Hmm... this one looks fun! Two poor teams face off at the Reebok today, two teams who currently sit in the bottom 5 of the table and who could easily be in the bottom 5 at the end of the season. Bolton will be on a high following their great comeback in Munich midweek but are on a run of 4 home games without a win, while 'Boro have lost their last 5 away. It doesn't really make for the most exciting of matches on paper.
However I think Megson has got something going already at Bolton, he seems to be quickly winning around the fans who were opposed to his appointment (I think the Bayern result went a long way towards doing this). Bolton also took a weakened squad to Germany in preparation for this game and will be fired up to achieve their 2nd home win of the season. It's not a game to be betting big on, but I think they may just do it, but with Anelka out and Diouf suspended it'll be a game I pass on.
Manchester United v Blackburn
Two of the form teams in the Premiership, United unbeaten at home, Blackburn unbeaten away, United scoring for fun, Blackburn tight at the back. All is set for what should be a good game.
United will be missing the injured Wayne Rooney while Reid isn't in the Blackburn travelling party. I think Blackburn will come to keep it tight and frustrate, and they'll do it well. This isn't going to be a match where United score another four. However I think in the end United should have too much, and knowing a win will take them top (Arsenal play tomorrow) the result will be bashed out.
1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7
Spurs v Wigan
In much the same way I pointed out Bristol City were in a false position at the top of the Championship yesterday, Spurs are in a similar situation at the bottom of the Premiership. Wigan however are not.
With Wigan on a six game losing streak now is the ideal time for Ramos to get his first league win as Spurs boss and begin the slow crawl up the table. Managerless Wigan have an away record of 0-1-5 and this won't get any better today. The Spurs players are fighting for their positions under the new boss and today I feel a few of them may show him exactly what they can do. The odds are a bit skinny for me so I'm looking at Spurs to take the lead early and keep it.
2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12
Portsmouth v Manchester City
For City's 100% 7/7 record at home they've not looked great on the road (1-1-3) losing 0-6 last time out at Chelsea and I'm taking Pompey to pile on the pressure this afternoon. Pompey are also unbeaten at home and City seem to have reached a slightly sticky part of the season, struggling past Sunderland at the COMS last weekend while Pompey destroyed Newcastle away from home.
On their day Pompey can score, and score a lot and City are missing key defender Micah Richards through injury. I'm sure Sven has told City to keep it tight and solid, but the team he is building doesn't play like that... and due to this I think they will struggle. At just odds on Pompey appeal for a good size bet, but I'm splitting it over a couple of Asian Handicaps to give me a slightly better result if Pompey win by more than 1 goal.
2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19
A couple of cheeky accumulators too (I know!)
1pt Bolton, Dundee, Portsmouth, Tottenham, Man Utd @ 11.87
1pt Bolton 2-1, United 2-1, Spurs 2-1, Pompey 3-1 @ Various Odds (1 acca & 4 trebles 0.2 pts each)
Evening bets: Sorry, no time for putting up the reasoning:
Real with a 100% record at home should put on a show tonight, hoping for a couple of early goals...
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14
In the Villarreal v Sevilla match I'm going to go for goals again in a game with two teams in great attacking form, based on 3 or more goals with 3 breaking even...
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.94
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.23
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 5.88
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.48
If there are less than 3 goals it's a 5pts loss, otherwise a profit ranging from just under 1pt with 3 goals to over 12pts with 6+
Results:
A poor day after a good one yesterday saved in the last match of the day. With Pompey failing to score in their draw with City, due to the post, good 'keeping and the unexpected return of Richards... and Real going in level at half time despite being in the lead twice it looked bleak, but the goals in Spain means
1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7 - Won +2.42pts
0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4 - Lost -0.5pt
1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7 - Lost -1pt
2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12 - Won +2.13pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91 - Lost -2pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19 - Lost -2pts
1pt Acca - Lost -1pt
1pt Scores Acca - Lost -1pt
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14 - Lost -2pts
5pts Sevilla/Villarreal goals - Won +6.62pts
Total: +1.67pts
November so far: +12.34pts
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