November so far: +33.19pts
Points Difference: +0.47pts
November Result: +33.66pts
November Target: 34.55pts
Points to Target: -0.89pts
November Hit Rate: 41.71%
November ROI: 6.72%
A reasonable month, some highs - the England v Croatia match stands out - some lows - a couple of longish losing runs but a total profit of +33.66pts can't be sniffed at. Target was almost hit with less than 1pt in it so I'm pretty happy there too... Although the hit rate has fallen on October's figure the ROI (Return On Investment) is up from 6.28% to 6.72% however I staked 500.7pts this month instead of 839.51pts in October which means even though the ROI is up the total profit is down.
My targets of 40%+ hit rate and 5%+ ROI have both been hit again which means I'm going in the right direction, hopefully I can increase my ROI again in December
The main profits came in Champions League and International football (21.49pts and 26.67pts respectively with the Championship bringing in 17.49pts) while the big losses came in the Premiership, League 2 and Foreign football (-14.03pts, -11.95pts and -12.23pts). I'm a little perplexed at the Premiership result as I usually come out on top there, and in October my League 2 result was +23.8pts which I think goes to show that betting on the lower leagues can be so volatile.
I'm going to lay off the Foreign football a little next month as it's my second losing month in this area, but I will still look for the value there. There is a lot more cricket coming up in December which is good as I tend to do well there but only really like to bet on England games, with the Sri Lanka tour starting there will be plenty of opportunities.
The banks currently stands at 206.39pts which means the 20% target for this month is 41.28pts. Hopefully with the cricket and a lot of festive football the target can be hit... There is also one bet open going into December with Same Difference to win the X Factor backed at 21.5 - if they get to the final there should be an opportunity to lay them at reasonable prices.
Starting Bank: 120pts
October Profit: 52.73pts
November Profit: 33.66pts
Current Bank: 206.39pts
December Target: 41.28pts
Friday, 30 November 2007
Friday FA Cup... and IACGMOOH Final
First up the FA Cup game tonight where Isthmian League team Horsham host Swansea in terrible conditions. Horsham have a very good home record but I think the Welsh side should be too strong for them, however they may be frustrated for a while. I've backed the 0-0 with a view to trade at half time...
1pt Horsham v Swansea 0-0 @ 18
Update: Layed off the stake at 8.4
And the lay is about 2 minutes before Swansea score... oh well, no harm done...
The IACGMOOH final is tonight too... come on Janice!
Janice comes second... no loss so no problems... but a tepid end to the month...
Total: +0pts
November so far: +33.19pts
1pt Horsham v Swansea 0-0 @ 18
Update: Layed off the stake at 8.4
And the lay is about 2 minutes before Swansea score... oh well, no harm done...
The IACGMOOH final is tonight too... come on Janice!
Janice comes second... no loss so no problems... but a tepid end to the month...
Total: +0pts
November so far: +33.19pts
Thursday, 29 November 2007
I'm a Celeb - 8th Elimination...
We know it's between Cerys and Jason, I think the odds are slightly out, I would have it much closer than the current 1.36 on Jason and 3.65 on Cerys... and as a result I'm having a small bet on Cerys to go:
1pt Cerys to be eliminated @ 3.65
Short, sweet and a winner
Total: +2.52pts
November so far: +33.19pts
1pt Cerys to be eliminated @ 3.65
Short, sweet and a winner
Total: +2.52pts
November so far: +33.19pts
UEFA Cup Football
And once again I'm pushed for time in a busy week, so no reasoning again, and just one bet... rest assured there will be a full month end round up coming and the detail will be back next month:
3pts Woking v Ebbsfleet Over 2.5goals @ 2.34
I'm keeping an eye on Spurs, Bolton and Aberdeen in play for potential bets there, I'm particularly looking at overs if the odds hit over evens in the games...
Update: No time to back anything else tonight!
Total: -3pts
November so far: +30.67pts
3pts Woking v Ebbsfleet Over 2.5goals @ 2.34
I'm keeping an eye on Spurs, Bolton and Aberdeen in play for potential bets there, I'm particularly looking at overs if the odds hit over evens in the games...
Update: No time to back anything else tonight!
Total: -3pts
November so far: +30.67pts
Wednesday, 28 November 2007
Wednesday Champs League and English Football
Pushed for time again tonight, but rest assured there is reasoning behind these bets. As usual will be looking for trades during the games...
Champions League
2pts Milan to win at Benfica @ 2.42 - Lost -2pts
3pts LAY of Lazio v Olympiakos @ 1.88 - Won +2.85pts
3pts LAY of Chelsea at Rosenburg @ 1.69 - Lost -2.07pts
2pts Marseille to win at Besiktas @ 2.8 - Lost -2pts
4pts Celtic to beat Shaktar @ 1.91 - Won +3.46pts
1.5pts Celtic HT/FT v Shaktar @ 3.2 - Lost -1.5pts
4pts Liverpool -1 v Porto @ 1.89 - Won +3.38pts
Premier League:
1pt Blackburn v Villa 0-0 @ 10 - Lost -1pt
Championship:
2pts West Brom to win at Plymouth @ 2.98 - Won +3.76pts
Mug Accumulators:
0.5pts Valencia, Liverpool, Marseille, AC Milan, West Brom & Celtic @ 93.79 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Valencia, Madrid, Wolves, Blackburn to draw, Lay Chelsea, Lay Lazio @ 115.46 - Lost -0.5pts
Total: +3.88pts
November so far: +33.67pts
Champions League
2pts Milan to win at Benfica @ 2.42 - Lost -2pts
3pts LAY of Lazio v Olympiakos @ 1.88 - Won +2.85pts
3pts LAY of Chelsea at Rosenburg @ 1.69 - Lost -2.07pts
2pts Marseille to win at Besiktas @ 2.8 - Lost -2pts
4pts Celtic to beat Shaktar @ 1.91 - Won +3.46pts
1.5pts Celtic HT/FT v Shaktar @ 3.2 - Lost -1.5pts
4pts Liverpool -1 v Porto @ 1.89 - Won +3.38pts
Premier League:
1pt Blackburn v Villa 0-0 @ 10 - Lost -1pt
Championship:
2pts West Brom to win at Plymouth @ 2.98 - Won +3.76pts
Mug Accumulators:
0.5pts Valencia, Liverpool, Marseille, AC Milan, West Brom & Celtic @ 93.79 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Valencia, Madrid, Wolves, Blackburn to draw, Lay Chelsea, Lay Lazio @ 115.46 - Lost -0.5pts
Total: +3.88pts
November so far: +33.67pts
Tuesday, 27 November 2007
Tuesday Champs League & Championship
Very short post tonight, just got back from London so no time for a long write up... as always will be looking for options in play too:
4pts Stuttgart to beat Rangers @ 2.18 - Won +4.48pts
3pts United -1 v S. Lisbon @ 2.18 - PUSH
2pts Lyon to beat Barcelona @ 2.6 - Lost -2pts
4pts Ipswich to beat Southampton @ 1.91 - Won +3.46pts
3pts Hull to beat Bristol City @ 1.99 - Lost -3pts
1pt Ipswich, Hull & Watford to win @ 5.86 - Lost -1pt
Total: +1.94pts
November so far: +29.79pts
4pts Stuttgart to beat Rangers @ 2.18 - Won +4.48pts
3pts United -1 v S. Lisbon @ 2.18 - PUSH
2pts Lyon to beat Barcelona @ 2.6 - Lost -2pts
4pts Ipswich to beat Southampton @ 1.91 - Won +3.46pts
3pts Hull to beat Bristol City @ 1.99 - Lost -3pts
1pt Ipswich, Hull & Watford to win @ 5.86 - Lost -1pt
Total: +1.94pts
November so far: +29.79pts
Sunday, 25 November 2007
Sunday Football
And first off to the Championship where West Brom host Wolves in the early derby game. Both teams sit in the top 6 of the table (WBA 3rd and Wolves 6th) and both know a win will lift either of them further up the league. Both teams play their best football at home and although this is a derby match I think the trend will keep up today. West Brom have a good home record against Wolves, you have to go back 11 years for the last time they lost the derby at home and even though odds are skinny I can't see past the West Brom win
3pts West Brom to beat Wolves @ 1.9
Spurs travel to West Ham for the 13.30 kick off in a game that saw 7 goals last season. Both teams have come with an attacking line up again and we could very well see another goal fest with neither side the greatest at the back. West Ham won their last match 5-0, Spurs their last 4-0... any way you look at it this screams goals... I'm going for the old staple in matches where I think there will be goals, as well as chancing a couple of big correct scores and the HT/FT reversal...
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.87
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.08
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 5.81
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.63
0.5pts HT/FT West Ham/Tottenham @ 27
0.5pts HT/FT Tottenham/West Ham @ 30
0.4pts Spurs to win 3-2 @ 29
0.4pts West Ham to win 3-2 @ 32
0.2pts Draw 3-3 @ 60
Update: FUCKING PENALTY MISSES!
1) Gera misses a last minute penalty for West Brom and it finishes 0-0
2) Defoe misses a last minute penalty for Spurs which would have won them the match and me the HT/FT West Ham/Spurs bet, and also brought the 3rd goal in... the match finishes 1-1
Still... Blackburn should help win it back with what should be a win at Craven Cottage. Fulham struggle against the bigger sides while Blackburn have a 100% record this season against teams in the lower half of the table. If they play like they have been doing all season, and don't miss any penalties if they come up, then they should bring home the bacon. They've been one of my strongest fancies all week but it would have been nice to place the bets on an already winning day... as it stands they will hopefully save the day.
I'm on them to start strongly and build from that, hopefully with a goal from David Bentley who has scored 4 times this season, but every time it has been the first goal in the match. And with Santa Cruz not playing today he could play off McCarthy rather than in midfield.
4pts Blackburn to beat Fulham @ 2.38
1pt Blackburn to win 2-0 @ 13.5
2pts HT/FT Blackburn/Blackburn @ 4.3
1pt FGS - Bentley @ 12
Also I'm taking Espanyol DNB at Osasuna, Espanyol have only lost twice all season while Osasuna, although they started well are out of form and not looking great with 1 win in the last 5 games. Keeping the draw as no bet just in case but Espanyol should get a result. I'm also taking an under performing B. Dortmund DNB at Nurnberg in the Bundesliga.
3pts Espanyol DNB @ 2.18
3pts Dortmund DNB @ 2.22
Hopefully at least a few of these will come in and save us from another awful Sunday.
Update: I honestly don't believe it! Fulham get a penalty 5 minutes into the second half... and score it! What is it with penalties today? 3 of them and the two I need are saved, the one I don't goes in. Bollocks, bollocks, bollocks.
Update: Was tempted to have a bit more on Blackburn as they have been on top all match, but didn't in the end. Now 1-1... come on Blackburn... and as I speak Fulham score again! Argh! I'll be laying Fulham as the game goes on, looking to double (max) my current 4pts liability...
Also in Spain, 2 matches are level at 3-3 with 20ish minutes left... I'll be laying the draw in both of them at various odds as the matches draw to a close... looking for liabilities of no more than 4pts in either game and hoping for a goal in at least one... will post the results at FT and hopefully there will be at least one of the two with another goal!
Update: Trading out and Blackburn score... I'm now -2pts on the draw from -4pts... will no trade the draw... and did back to -4pts... still Spain has been better with Espanyol winning in my earlier bet and a 7th goal in each of the games below for profits of:
Atletico Madrid v Valladolid +4.43pts
Levante v Betis +3pts
Still down about 11pts (ish) for the day so far, but it doesn't mean I'm not having one last bet on goals galore in Zaragoza v Getafe... the last eight games between these two sides have had 3+ goals... also having a play on the HT/FT turnaround again:
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.94
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.32
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 7.2
0.4pts Total Goals 6+ @ 16.5
0.2pts Total Goals 7+ @ 43.79
0.5pts HT/FT Zaragoza/Getafe @ 45.44
0.5pts HT/FT Getafe/Zaragoza @ 34
Bring on the goalfest...
Update: 1-1
The less said about today the better
3 winning bets totalling 10.79pts
The rest all losing totalling -27.1pts!!!!
Total: -16.31pts
November so far: +27.85pts
6.69pts behind the monthly target now... a few days to go though so confident of hitting it...
3pts West Brom to beat Wolves @ 1.9
Spurs travel to West Ham for the 13.30 kick off in a game that saw 7 goals last season. Both teams have come with an attacking line up again and we could very well see another goal fest with neither side the greatest at the back. West Ham won their last match 5-0, Spurs their last 4-0... any way you look at it this screams goals... I'm going for the old staple in matches where I think there will be goals, as well as chancing a couple of big correct scores and the HT/FT reversal...
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.87
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.08
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 5.81
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.63
0.5pts HT/FT West Ham/Tottenham @ 27
0.5pts HT/FT Tottenham/West Ham @ 30
0.4pts Spurs to win 3-2 @ 29
0.4pts West Ham to win 3-2 @ 32
0.2pts Draw 3-3 @ 60
Update: FUCKING PENALTY MISSES!
1) Gera misses a last minute penalty for West Brom and it finishes 0-0
2) Defoe misses a last minute penalty for Spurs which would have won them the match and me the HT/FT West Ham/Spurs bet, and also brought the 3rd goal in... the match finishes 1-1
Still... Blackburn should help win it back with what should be a win at Craven Cottage. Fulham struggle against the bigger sides while Blackburn have a 100% record this season against teams in the lower half of the table. If they play like they have been doing all season, and don't miss any penalties if they come up, then they should bring home the bacon. They've been one of my strongest fancies all week but it would have been nice to place the bets on an already winning day... as it stands they will hopefully save the day.
I'm on them to start strongly and build from that, hopefully with a goal from David Bentley who has scored 4 times this season, but every time it has been the first goal in the match. And with Santa Cruz not playing today he could play off McCarthy rather than in midfield.
4pts Blackburn to beat Fulham @ 2.38
1pt Blackburn to win 2-0 @ 13.5
2pts HT/FT Blackburn/Blackburn @ 4.3
1pt FGS - Bentley @ 12
Also I'm taking Espanyol DNB at Osasuna, Espanyol have only lost twice all season while Osasuna, although they started well are out of form and not looking great with 1 win in the last 5 games. Keeping the draw as no bet just in case but Espanyol should get a result. I'm also taking an under performing B. Dortmund DNB at Nurnberg in the Bundesliga.
3pts Espanyol DNB @ 2.18
3pts Dortmund DNB @ 2.22
Hopefully at least a few of these will come in and save us from another awful Sunday.
Update: I honestly don't believe it! Fulham get a penalty 5 minutes into the second half... and score it! What is it with penalties today? 3 of them and the two I need are saved, the one I don't goes in. Bollocks, bollocks, bollocks.
Update: Was tempted to have a bit more on Blackburn as they have been on top all match, but didn't in the end. Now 1-1... come on Blackburn... and as I speak Fulham score again! Argh! I'll be laying Fulham as the game goes on, looking to double (max) my current 4pts liability...
Also in Spain, 2 matches are level at 3-3 with 20ish minutes left... I'll be laying the draw in both of them at various odds as the matches draw to a close... looking for liabilities of no more than 4pts in either game and hoping for a goal in at least one... will post the results at FT and hopefully there will be at least one of the two with another goal!
Update: Trading out and Blackburn score... I'm now -2pts on the draw from -4pts... will no trade the draw... and did back to -4pts... still Spain has been better with Espanyol winning in my earlier bet and a 7th goal in each of the games below for profits of:
Atletico Madrid v Valladolid +4.43pts
Levante v Betis +3pts
Still down about 11pts (ish) for the day so far, but it doesn't mean I'm not having one last bet on goals galore in Zaragoza v Getafe... the last eight games between these two sides have had 3+ goals... also having a play on the HT/FT turnaround again:
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.94
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.32
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 7.2
0.4pts Total Goals 6+ @ 16.5
0.2pts Total Goals 7+ @ 43.79
0.5pts HT/FT Zaragoza/Getafe @ 45.44
0.5pts HT/FT Getafe/Zaragoza @ 34
Bring on the goalfest...
Update: 1-1
The less said about today the better
3 winning bets totalling 10.79pts
The rest all losing totalling -27.1pts!!!!
Total: -16.31pts
November so far: +27.85pts
6.69pts behind the monthly target now... a few days to go though so confident of hitting it...
Saturday, 24 November 2007
Back on the good stuff...
The internationals are over, all the home nations have the summer off, and we can finally get back to betting on some decent football...
Firstly, the Saturday staple and the Premiership preview...
Newcastle v Liverpool
The early kick off today and the hardest match to predict by a mile. Liverpool, unbeaten (in the league) this season travel to Newcastle who once again are having a mediocre season... They're not doing too badly at home, bar the hammering last time out at the hands of Pompey while Liverpool seem to be saving their beat results for the road (4-2-0), keeping it tight but coming out with the results.
On paper with Newcastle having 1 point from their last 3 games Liverpool look the shout, but two things worry me. Firstly, Benitez has openly stated he doesn't think he has enough time to prepare his team after an international break, and secondly, Liverpool have a very important (must win) Champions League match on Wednesday which could mean he 'saves' a few of his players for then.
Either way it's a case of the long ball merchants with Big Sam's hump it and hope tactics possibly working better minus the injured Owen against the sideways long ball merchants with Rafa's men hoping the flat track bully Torres can steamroller Newcastle's defence. This fixture (both at St James' and Anfield) has a history of great exciting matches but I think today may buck the trend with a tight game...
1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5
Arsenal v Wigan
Arsenal are missing a few players today with Fabregas, Hleb, Flamini, Diaby and Gilberto all out while Wigan welcome Heskey back. Even so this is going to be very difficult for Wigan and I don't blame Steve Bruce for waiting until Monday to start work - the last thing you want is a hammering in your first match in charge.
The last two times these teams have met at Highbury have seen Wigan leading before going on to lose but I don't think they will even be afforded that luxury today as Arsenal look to keep their place at the top of the table and also their unbeaten start to the season intact. The odds on Arsenal don't appeal, neither does the HT/FT as Arsenal may take a little time to warm up. But the Asian Handicap does with Arsenal available at -2. If they win by two it's cash back any more and a win, at over evens it looks a nice bet.
3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18
Birmingham v Portsmouth
The Blues go into today's match having lost manager Steve Bruce and host a Pompey side who, although not having the best record at St Andrews are on form this season especially away from home. The only downer I have on the away side today is they have a fair few international players from all over the world and if tiredness creeps up on them they may struggle towards the end of the game. Redknapp has them well drilled though and at the odds they're worth a small back to kick Birmingham while they're down
1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34
Bolton v Manchester United
United make the short trip (short in distance, about 30 years in evolution) to Bolton today looking to keep up the pressure on Arsenal at the top with Rooney, who bagged a hat-trick
in this fixture last season out with a knock, however United have plenty of strength as back up and should prove too much for a side that haven't beaten them at home since the 1970s.
To be fair Gary Megson looks like he could turn it around and keep Bolton up but with United this week and Liverpool next week the resurgence may have to wait a couple of weeks. I think United will look to start strongly and get this done with...
2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4
Derby v Chelsea
Not a whole lot to say here apart from I really fear for Derby. Chelsea should stroll this game and if they aren't too complacent they should have no problem. It's the evening match so they'll know what they have to do before kick off and they should do it no problem. Simple really and I may look at another bet later today, but for now there is just a small one...
1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9
Everton v Sunderland
Everything about this game screams one thing... no bet! I may look to play in running by laying the leader as although Everton are in form and Sunderland haven't won away this season I see this game as a potential Sunderland win. To be honest I can't put my finger on why but I feel Keane will have his side ready for a scrap and Everton aren't the 'dogs of war' they once were. It's not going to be pretty and, unless something looks good in play, I'm not touching it.
Manchester City v Reading
7-0-0 plays 0-1-5, 11 goals scored at home plays 19 conceded away. Add this to a pretty much full strength City side and I can't see anything except a decent City win. Reading will come to frustrate and spoil, and last season this may have worked, but Sven's City are different, they've got the players, the skill and the talent to break Reading down and the grit to keep battling until they do.
City will win today, but by how many is the question. Five of their 7 home wins have been 1-0 so by all accounts that could be the bet, but I feel they may have more in them against a leaky Reading defence and the odds on them to do so are brilliant. I think this could be the football bet of the season and as such I'm having what is only my third bet over 5pts this season.
10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5
Middlesbrough v Aston Villa
Another game I'm swerving with two massively inconsistent teams and no bet for me, but possibly to reconsider in play if Boro score first.
Other leagues in brief today:
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02
Also a cheeky 0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 on Portsmouth, Man Utd, Bradford, Brighton, Halifax, MK Dons, Dundee & Watford
Update: So far not so good... a few points down today, but Chelsea should do it this evening with one shock from Bolton being enough for today... two chunky bets will take us back in the green (I think, rough mental calculations!)
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9
Update: Slightly better evening, traded a little off on the Chelsea -1.5 to ensure a no loss situation but not a bad evening...
1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5 - Lost -1pt
3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18 - PUSH
1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34 - Won +1.91pts
2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4 - Lost -2pts
1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9 - Lost -1pt
10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5 - PUSH
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16 Lost -2.5pts
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26 - Lost -2pts
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2 - Lost -2pts
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04 - Lost -4pts
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56 - Won +3.71pts
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02 - Won +3.88pts
0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 - Lost -0.5pts
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81 - Won +3.08pts
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9 - Won +3.08pts
Total: +0.66pts
November so far: +44.16
Firstly, the Saturday staple and the Premiership preview...
Newcastle v Liverpool
The early kick off today and the hardest match to predict by a mile. Liverpool, unbeaten (in the league) this season travel to Newcastle who once again are having a mediocre season... They're not doing too badly at home, bar the hammering last time out at the hands of Pompey while Liverpool seem to be saving their beat results for the road (4-2-0), keeping it tight but coming out with the results.
On paper with Newcastle having 1 point from their last 3 games Liverpool look the shout, but two things worry me. Firstly, Benitez has openly stated he doesn't think he has enough time to prepare his team after an international break, and secondly, Liverpool have a very important (must win) Champions League match on Wednesday which could mean he 'saves' a few of his players for then.
Either way it's a case of the long ball merchants with Big Sam's hump it and hope tactics possibly working better minus the injured Owen against the sideways long ball merchants with Rafa's men hoping the flat track bully Torres can steamroller Newcastle's defence. This fixture (both at St James' and Anfield) has a history of great exciting matches but I think today may buck the trend with a tight game...
1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5
Arsenal v Wigan
Arsenal are missing a few players today with Fabregas, Hleb, Flamini, Diaby and Gilberto all out while Wigan welcome Heskey back. Even so this is going to be very difficult for Wigan and I don't blame Steve Bruce for waiting until Monday to start work - the last thing you want is a hammering in your first match in charge.
The last two times these teams have met at Highbury have seen Wigan leading before going on to lose but I don't think they will even be afforded that luxury today as Arsenal look to keep their place at the top of the table and also their unbeaten start to the season intact. The odds on Arsenal don't appeal, neither does the HT/FT as Arsenal may take a little time to warm up. But the Asian Handicap does with Arsenal available at -2. If they win by two it's cash back any more and a win, at over evens it looks a nice bet.
3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18
Birmingham v Portsmouth
The Blues go into today's match having lost manager Steve Bruce and host a Pompey side who, although not having the best record at St Andrews are on form this season especially away from home. The only downer I have on the away side today is they have a fair few international players from all over the world and if tiredness creeps up on them they may struggle towards the end of the game. Redknapp has them well drilled though and at the odds they're worth a small back to kick Birmingham while they're down
1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34
Bolton v Manchester United
United make the short trip (short in distance, about 30 years in evolution) to Bolton today looking to keep up the pressure on Arsenal at the top with Rooney, who bagged a hat-trick
in this fixture last season out with a knock, however United have plenty of strength as back up and should prove too much for a side that haven't beaten them at home since the 1970s.
To be fair Gary Megson looks like he could turn it around and keep Bolton up but with United this week and Liverpool next week the resurgence may have to wait a couple of weeks. I think United will look to start strongly and get this done with...
2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4
Derby v Chelsea
Not a whole lot to say here apart from I really fear for Derby. Chelsea should stroll this game and if they aren't too complacent they should have no problem. It's the evening match so they'll know what they have to do before kick off and they should do it no problem. Simple really and I may look at another bet later today, but for now there is just a small one...
1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9
Everton v Sunderland
Everything about this game screams one thing... no bet! I may look to play in running by laying the leader as although Everton are in form and Sunderland haven't won away this season I see this game as a potential Sunderland win. To be honest I can't put my finger on why but I feel Keane will have his side ready for a scrap and Everton aren't the 'dogs of war' they once were. It's not going to be pretty and, unless something looks good in play, I'm not touching it.
Manchester City v Reading
7-0-0 plays 0-1-5, 11 goals scored at home plays 19 conceded away. Add this to a pretty much full strength City side and I can't see anything except a decent City win. Reading will come to frustrate and spoil, and last season this may have worked, but Sven's City are different, they've got the players, the skill and the talent to break Reading down and the grit to keep battling until they do.
City will win today, but by how many is the question. Five of their 7 home wins have been 1-0 so by all accounts that could be the bet, but I feel they may have more in them against a leaky Reading defence and the odds on them to do so are brilliant. I think this could be the football bet of the season and as such I'm having what is only my third bet over 5pts this season.
10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5
Middlesbrough v Aston Villa
Another game I'm swerving with two massively inconsistent teams and no bet for me, but possibly to reconsider in play if Boro score first.
Other leagues in brief today:
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02
Also a cheeky 0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 on Portsmouth, Man Utd, Bradford, Brighton, Halifax, MK Dons, Dundee & Watford
Update: So far not so good... a few points down today, but Chelsea should do it this evening with one shock from Bolton being enough for today... two chunky bets will take us back in the green (I think, rough mental calculations!)
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9
Update: Slightly better evening, traded a little off on the Chelsea -1.5 to ensure a no loss situation but not a bad evening...
1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5 - Lost -1pt
3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18 - PUSH
1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34 - Won +1.91pts
2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4 - Lost -2pts
1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9 - Lost -1pt
10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5 - PUSH
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16 Lost -2.5pts
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26 - Lost -2pts
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2 - Lost -2pts
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04 - Lost -4pts
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56 - Won +3.71pts
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02 - Won +3.88pts
0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 - Lost -0.5pts
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81 - Won +3.08pts
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9 - Won +3.08pts
Total: +0.66pts
November so far: +44.16
Friday, 23 November 2007
Friday Night Rugby...
Sale travel to Worcester tonight looking to take their Cup form to Sixways. They're unbeaten in the last 3 but need a boost up the Guinness Premiership with their first away win (they've won their 3 at home, lost the 3 away). There is no better team to do it against than Worcester who sit bottom of the league with 1 win in 6.
The big news for Sale is New Zealand international Luke McAlister makes his debut, and although they are missing a few players such as Lund and their Argentinian contingent they can still call on the likes of Sheridan, Cueto and Chabal and should have too much for the Warriors...
4pts Sale -6.5 @ 1.91
Update: Sale come home 15-34
Total: +3.46pts
November so far: +43.50pts
The big news for Sale is New Zealand international Luke McAlister makes his debut, and although they are missing a few players such as Lund and their Argentinian contingent they can still call on the likes of Sheridan, Cueto and Chabal and should have too much for the Warriors...
4pts Sale -6.5 @ 1.91
Update: Sale come home 15-34
Total: +3.46pts
November so far: +43.50pts
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