With a Sri Lanka win in the first test I feel England have had their chance, blowing a first innings lead and falling away at the end when a draw was in sight. Sri Lanka have only lost once in the last 6 years at the SSC and England are missing a major threat in Hoggard. Harmison comes in to replace him and isn't in the form to trouble Sri Lanka. England minus Hoggard aren't great at the best of times, but against a Sri Lanka side with their tails up this could be a hammering.
If Sri Lanka bat first they could put on 500+ and possibly force the follow on, if England bat first they may score 300-350 but not much more. Sri Lanka either way could win this batting once. When the odds form for the Sri Lanka 1st innings runs market I'll look into backing the high scores.
There isn't a whole lot more to say apart from I'm backing Sri Lanka. It would be a full 10pts but there is a slight weather worry so I'm restricting it to 7.5pts with one eye on the draw. I'm also going in on Jayawardene to outscore Vaughan with the Englishman having a 0.5 run start, even if Sri Lanka only bat once this could happen, if they bat twice then the odds are way too high.
7.5pts Sri Lanka to beat England @ 2.14
4.5pts Jayawardene -0.5 v Vaughan @ 1.86
Sunday, 9 December 2007
Friday, 7 December 2007
Saturday's Football
Firstly, as always the Premiership:
Aston Villa v Portsmouth
Villa host a side bang in form in the early kick off at Villa Park, Pompey are unbeaten in the league since 2nd September and have only lost to Arsenal and Chelsea while Villa have only lost 2 of their last 7 (to United and Arsenal)... the odds say Villa, a lot of people say Villa, but I say Pompey. Their away form has been especially good with only Chelsea and Liverpool matching their 5 wins and a victory here can take them into 5th albeit possibly temporarily until City play on Sunday. I think Villa are being overestimated on the back of their 2nd half performance against Arsenal and I was expecting much shorter odds on Pompey. With that in mind I'm going for Pompey, but keeping the draw as no bet.
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5
Chelsea v Sunderland and United v Derby
I'm lumping these games together as I'm going for the same bet on each game. And that is 7+ goals. Everton put 7 past Sunderland only a fortnight ago and although Roy Keane has surely made it clear it must not happen again doesn't mean it can't. Meanwhile Derby have shipped 4 at Spurs, 5 at home to West Ham, 5 at Arsenal and 6 at Chelsea... United to get the seven? Stranger things have happened...
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76
Everton v Fulham
After laying Everton midweek and feeling slightly unlucky it didn't pay off I'm going to try again against a side who were anything but disgraced against United on Monday night. Fulham have been playing some reasonable football and always look like scoring, they've held Chelsea to a draw away and haven't been disgraced against Liverpool, Arsenal or United away from home. If they keep it tight at the back they could get the draw or even nick the win.
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61
Newcastle v Birmingham
Another side priced up on their performance against Arsenal. Newcastle played very well second half midweek and were unlucky not to beat Arsenal, but they are so indifferent it's untrue. Birmingham come to St James' on the back of a great start for new manager Alex McLeish with a last minute winner against Spurs and must fancy themselves to come away with something. At the odds they're a decent bet
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1
Reading v Liverpool
In the evening match Liverpool go to Reading where they have already won twice in 2007 and a win for the league's biggest points gainers away from home looks good again. I will be backing them -1 on the handicap, but the odds haven't fully formed yet so the price will be updated nearer gametime
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13
Championship:
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3
League One:
2pts Bristol Rovers to beat Swansea @ 3.41 - POSTPONED
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86
League Two:
2pts Darlington to win at Morecambe @ 2.46 - POSTPONED
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15
Evening games:
Burnley seem overpriced here, Wolves are winning but not playing well while Burnley's away form is good, an early goal and Wolves may struggle.
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90
Update: Laid Burnley at 3-1 up for a profit win, lose or draw.
Update: 3-2 Burnley and I've gone back in on them for a better win if they do, no loss if they don't... in other news, Liverpool 1-3 down!
Results:
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5 - Won 4.99pts
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15 - PUSH
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24 - Lost 0.5pts
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01 - Won 3.36pts
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76 - Lost 0.5pts
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61 - Lost 1.83pts
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1 - Lost 2pts
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13 - Lost 5pts
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32 - Lost 2.5pts
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3 - Lost 1pt
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86 - Lost 3.5pts
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15 - Lost 2pts
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1 - Won 8pts
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90 - Lost 0.5pts
Total: -2.98pts
December so far: -16.78pts
Aston Villa v Portsmouth
Villa host a side bang in form in the early kick off at Villa Park, Pompey are unbeaten in the league since 2nd September and have only lost to Arsenal and Chelsea while Villa have only lost 2 of their last 7 (to United and Arsenal)... the odds say Villa, a lot of people say Villa, but I say Pompey. Their away form has been especially good with only Chelsea and Liverpool matching their 5 wins and a victory here can take them into 5th albeit possibly temporarily until City play on Sunday. I think Villa are being overestimated on the back of their 2nd half performance against Arsenal and I was expecting much shorter odds on Pompey. With that in mind I'm going for Pompey, but keeping the draw as no bet.
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5
Chelsea v Sunderland and United v Derby
I'm lumping these games together as I'm going for the same bet on each game. And that is 7+ goals. Everton put 7 past Sunderland only a fortnight ago and although Roy Keane has surely made it clear it must not happen again doesn't mean it can't. Meanwhile Derby have shipped 4 at Spurs, 5 at home to West Ham, 5 at Arsenal and 6 at Chelsea... United to get the seven? Stranger things have happened...
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76
Everton v Fulham
After laying Everton midweek and feeling slightly unlucky it didn't pay off I'm going to try again against a side who were anything but disgraced against United on Monday night. Fulham have been playing some reasonable football and always look like scoring, they've held Chelsea to a draw away and haven't been disgraced against Liverpool, Arsenal or United away from home. If they keep it tight at the back they could get the draw or even nick the win.
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61
Newcastle v Birmingham
Another side priced up on their performance against Arsenal. Newcastle played very well second half midweek and were unlucky not to beat Arsenal, but they are so indifferent it's untrue. Birmingham come to St James' on the back of a great start for new manager Alex McLeish with a last minute winner against Spurs and must fancy themselves to come away with something. At the odds they're a decent bet
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1
Reading v Liverpool
In the evening match Liverpool go to Reading where they have already won twice in 2007 and a win for the league's biggest points gainers away from home looks good again. I will be backing them -1 on the handicap, but the odds haven't fully formed yet so the price will be updated nearer gametime
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13
Championship:
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3
League One:
2pts Bristol Rovers to beat Swansea @ 3.41 - POSTPONED
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86
League Two:
2pts Darlington to win at Morecambe @ 2.46 - POSTPONED
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15
Evening games:
Burnley seem overpriced here, Wolves are winning but not playing well while Burnley's away form is good, an early goal and Wolves may struggle.
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90
Update: Laid Burnley at 3-1 up for a profit win, lose or draw.
Update: 3-2 Burnley and I've gone back in on them for a better win if they do, no loss if they don't... in other news, Liverpool 1-3 down!
Results:
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5 - Won 4.99pts
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15 - PUSH
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24 - Lost 0.5pts
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01 - Won 3.36pts
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76 - Lost 0.5pts
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61 - Lost 1.83pts
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1 - Lost 2pts
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13 - Lost 5pts
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32 - Lost 2.5pts
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3 - Lost 1pt
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86 - Lost 3.5pts
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15 - Lost 2pts
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1 - Won 8pts
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90 - Lost 0.5pts
Total: -2.98pts
December so far: -16.78pts
Come on the Hitman...
Saturday's boxing - this post will be updated throughout tomorrow as and when bets on the other fights happen:
Mayweather v Hatton
My original thoughts (written earlier this week) were as follows:
4pts Hatton to beat Mayweather @ 2.8
3pts Hatton to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 4.9
Come on the Hitman...
In other fights Amir Khan takes on Graham Earl. Earl is a handy fighter and by far the best Khan has ever faced. He has beaten some top class fighters and only lost twice to even better fighters. He will come at Khan tonight and Amir may struggle, he's been put down before against a lesser fighter than Earl and a few people may be surprised tonight.
1.5pts Earl to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 7.6 - Lost 1.5pts
Update: Well, Khan in 72 seconds proved me wrong there... possibly more to come before Hatton
Update: Hatton's odds have drifted to 3.2, I've gone in again with another 2.5pts, also covered the draw with 0.5pts @ 22
Current Position: Hatton +11.63pts / Draw 3.81pts / Mayweather -7pts
Update: Layed Lacy @ 1.1 v Manfredo to lose 0.5pts
Total: -12pts
December so far: -13.8pts
Mayweather v Hatton
My original thoughts (written earlier this week) were as follows:
I think Pretty Boy is the better boxer on his day but he has underestimated Hatton while Ricky has really worked hard for this. I think Ricky can win, BUT he's going to have to do it inside the distance, as if this goes to the scorecards I can only see one result and that's not the one any of us wants, but it goes with the territory. You fight in their back yard you have to accept the judges' verdict.I still stand by the Hatton knock out thoughts, but more and more I've got a feeling for him outright too, especially taking on the thoughts of a few good brains... if Hatton is the clear winner he'll get the decision this time "some fights are just too big to cheat on" (cheers to BettingZone's Mike Holden for some words of sense)...
Another minus for Hatton is Cortez has been confirmed as the ref and he won't take any shit from Hatton, he'll break up anything that gets too close up, which again is not a good thing.
I see this going two ways, I don't think PBF will knock Hatton out, Hatton may knock PBF out but if it goes to the judges PBF wins...
4pts Hatton to beat Mayweather @ 2.8
3pts Hatton to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 4.9
Come on the Hitman...
In other fights Amir Khan takes on Graham Earl. Earl is a handy fighter and by far the best Khan has ever faced. He has beaten some top class fighters and only lost twice to even better fighters. He will come at Khan tonight and Amir may struggle, he's been put down before against a lesser fighter than Earl and a few people may be surprised tonight.
1.5pts Earl to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 7.6 - Lost 1.5pts
Update: Well, Khan in 72 seconds proved me wrong there... possibly more to come before Hatton
Update: Hatton's odds have drifted to 3.2, I've gone in again with another 2.5pts, also covered the draw with 0.5pts @ 22
Current Position: Hatton +11.63pts / Draw 3.81pts / Mayweather -7pts
Update: Layed Lacy @ 1.1 v Manfredo to lose 0.5pts
Total: -12pts
December so far: -13.8pts
Get Back On Track...
With some rugby, not much time so just the bets tonight:
4pts Ospreys -14.5pts v Ulster @ 1.91 - Won 3.22pts
4pts Leinster -19.5pts v Edinburgh @ 1.95 - Lost 4pts
Update: Ospreys looks good and I've layed at 1.02 for an even 3.32pts profit either way.
Leinster are only 7 up with 10 minutes to go, so it looks like that bet is a loser. I've laid them to lose 1pt at 1.05... so hoping for either an Edinburgh score, or 2 from Leinster - Lost 1pt
Ok... maybe not back on track...
Total: -1.78pts
December so far: -1.8pts
4pts Ospreys -14.5pts v Ulster @ 1.91 - Won 3.22pts
4pts Leinster -19.5pts v Edinburgh @ 1.95 - Lost 4pts
Update: Ospreys looks good and I've layed at 1.02 for an even 3.32pts profit either way.
Leinster are only 7 up with 10 minutes to go, so it looks like that bet is a loser. I've laid them to lose 1pt at 1.05... so hoping for either an Edinburgh score, or 2 from Leinster - Lost 1pt
Ok... maybe not back on track...
Total: -1.78pts
December so far: -1.8pts
Thursday, 6 December 2007
UEFA Cup and Conference
Firstly, the UEFA Cup.
Bolton travel to Red Star Belgrade tonight minus Nicolas Anelka, Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan, Andy O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jussi Jaaskelainen all of whom have been left at home and rested and Ivan Campo who is not registered. They were thrashed 4-0 at the weekend while Red Star, who sit 2nd in the Serbian league, had the weekend off. Red Star must win to have any chance of qualifying and according to their coach will be going straight for the jugular tonight. Bolton will struggle for sure tonight, and although they have drawn all three matches so far they could well be facing their first loss, and possibly a heavy one... The odds seem way out to me...
Spurs travel tonight too and face Anderlecht in a battle of 1st vs 2nd knowing a win will see them through. Anderlecht know the same but have one match left after tonight while Spurs are done. Both sides will be going for the win, and this means one thing in a Spurs match... goals.
Finally Bordeaux host Helsingborgs in another game where surely goals are on the menu. In their last 12 games Bordeaux have scored 21 and conceded 19 while Helsingborgs have scored 31 and conceded 19. I'm going to cover some high scores...
4pts Red Star Belgrade to beat Bolton @ 2.34
3pts Anderlecht v Spurs Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 2-3 @ 60
0.6pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-2 @ 30
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-3 @ 85
1pt Bordeaux v Helsingborgs Unquoted @ 7.6
On to the Conference and on form Cambridge travel to out of form Kidderminster looking to extend their good run of 27 points out of the last possible 36... not much time for detail but they should carry on tonight
2pts Cambridge to beat Kidderminster @ 2.4
Oh dear... also backed Anderlecht in running for a point and everything has lost! Back to where I started the month!
Bugger
Total: -12pts
December so far: -0.02pts
Bolton travel to Red Star Belgrade tonight minus Nicolas Anelka, Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan, Andy O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jussi Jaaskelainen all of whom have been left at home and rested and Ivan Campo who is not registered. They were thrashed 4-0 at the weekend while Red Star, who sit 2nd in the Serbian league, had the weekend off. Red Star must win to have any chance of qualifying and according to their coach will be going straight for the jugular tonight. Bolton will struggle for sure tonight, and although they have drawn all three matches so far they could well be facing their first loss, and possibly a heavy one... The odds seem way out to me...
Spurs travel tonight too and face Anderlecht in a battle of 1st vs 2nd knowing a win will see them through. Anderlecht know the same but have one match left after tonight while Spurs are done. Both sides will be going for the win, and this means one thing in a Spurs match... goals.
Finally Bordeaux host Helsingborgs in another game where surely goals are on the menu. In their last 12 games Bordeaux have scored 21 and conceded 19 while Helsingborgs have scored 31 and conceded 19. I'm going to cover some high scores...
4pts Red Star Belgrade to beat Bolton @ 2.34
3pts Anderlecht v Spurs Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 2-3 @ 60
0.6pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-2 @ 30
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-3 @ 85
1pt Bordeaux v Helsingborgs Unquoted @ 7.6
On to the Conference and on form Cambridge travel to out of form Kidderminster looking to extend their good run of 27 points out of the last possible 36... not much time for detail but they should carry on tonight
2pts Cambridge to beat Kidderminster @ 2.4
Oh dear... also backed Anderlecht in running for a point and everything has lost! Back to where I started the month!
Bugger
Total: -12pts
December so far: -0.02pts
Wednesday, 5 December 2007
Wednesday Premiership & UEFA Cup
One Premiership match tonight and a few UEFA Cup bets:
In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to a Newcastle side who have not won in 5 matches which includes heavy home defeats to Portsmouth and Liverpool. Arsenal are unbeaten this season in the League and will be looking to extend their lead at the top of the table to 6 points. Arsenal have a few injuries with Flamini joining Fabregas and Hleb on the treatment table but Newcastle have a defensive crisis and are also missing Owen. I think Arsenal will come out for the win all guns blazing and should do it now problem, but they can still be vulnerable at the back. With that in mind I have 2 bets on the game
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11
On to the UEFA Cup and first of all Everton host Russian League leaders Zenit. Everton are minus Yobo, Stubbs and Howard and I think they may struggle at the back. A win for Everton will mean they definitely qualify but they may have to wait tonight against a team who should be in the Champions League next season...
Also in Everton's group are Nurnburg and AZ Alkmaar. Nurnburg are struggling in the league but a win tonight should boost their confidence and set them up for a grand finale in the group stages...
Another team that can qualify tonight is Atletico Madrid with a win in Copenhagen. The Spanish side will be at full strength and should score a couple. Copenhagen meanwhile seem pretty toothless up front and this could be the difference.
Panathinaikos host Locomotiv Moscow in the same group where they have won 2 out of 2. They are a strong side at home and play a side winless in 7 games knowing a win will see them finish the group on top.
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02
Results:
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 - Lost 3pts
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8 - Lost 2.4pts
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46 - Won 2.77pts
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3 - Won 3.09pts
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02 - Won 3.88pts
Total: +3.34pts
December so far: +11.98pts
In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to a Newcastle side who have not won in 5 matches which includes heavy home defeats to Portsmouth and Liverpool. Arsenal are unbeaten this season in the League and will be looking to extend their lead at the top of the table to 6 points. Arsenal have a few injuries with Flamini joining Fabregas and Hleb on the treatment table but Newcastle have a defensive crisis and are also missing Owen. I think Arsenal will come out for the win all guns blazing and should do it now problem, but they can still be vulnerable at the back. With that in mind I have 2 bets on the game
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11
On to the UEFA Cup and first of all Everton host Russian League leaders Zenit. Everton are minus Yobo, Stubbs and Howard and I think they may struggle at the back. A win for Everton will mean they definitely qualify but they may have to wait tonight against a team who should be in the Champions League next season...
Also in Everton's group are Nurnburg and AZ Alkmaar. Nurnburg are struggling in the league but a win tonight should boost their confidence and set them up for a grand finale in the group stages...
Another team that can qualify tonight is Atletico Madrid with a win in Copenhagen. The Spanish side will be at full strength and should score a couple. Copenhagen meanwhile seem pretty toothless up front and this could be the difference.
Panathinaikos host Locomotiv Moscow in the same group where they have won 2 out of 2. They are a strong side at home and play a side winless in 7 games knowing a win will see them finish the group on top.
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02
Results:
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 - Lost 3pts
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8 - Lost 2.4pts
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46 - Won 2.77pts
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3 - Won 3.09pts
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02 - Won 3.88pts
Total: +3.34pts
December so far: +11.98pts
Sri Lanka v England 1st Test: Final
Just a final result update, Sri Lanka won (just) so it's a winner for me...
Total: +6.07pts
December so far: +8.64pts
Total: +6.07pts
December so far: +8.64pts
Tuesday, 4 December 2007
Tuesday Champs League & English Leagues
And there is a fair bit of it. I'm off out to the Natwest Christmas Cocktail party at about 4ish so will try and get my bets up before I go:
First up is Milan v Celtic... and the draw at around evens is a mad price. Just because two teams don't need to win, doesn't mean they won't try to win or want to win. I was tempted to lay the draw, but Celtic, winning away in Europe? I'm not having that... so back Milan? Well, possibly, the odds are good, but I'm going for a couple of correct scores. Putting 2pts on what I see as the most likely correct scores will give me a profit of between 10 and 12pts if any of them come in unless I trade. I'm not sure if I'll be back in time to trade, and don't really like to if I've been out drinking, so they'll probably be left to it...
0.9pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 16.5
0.5pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 28
0.6pts AC Milan v Celtic Unquoted @ 21
Championship:
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94
League 1:
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1
League 2:
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91
Results:
2pts AC Milan v Celtic Scores - Lost 2pts
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64 - Won 2.77pts
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3 - Won 2.47pts
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94 - Lost 4pts
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1 - Lost 2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02 - Lost 3pts
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91 - Won 2.62pts
Total: -3.64pts
December so far: +2.57pts
First up is Milan v Celtic... and the draw at around evens is a mad price. Just because two teams don't need to win, doesn't mean they won't try to win or want to win. I was tempted to lay the draw, but Celtic, winning away in Europe? I'm not having that... so back Milan? Well, possibly, the odds are good, but I'm going for a couple of correct scores. Putting 2pts on what I see as the most likely correct scores will give me a profit of between 10 and 12pts if any of them come in unless I trade. I'm not sure if I'll be back in time to trade, and don't really like to if I've been out drinking, so they'll probably be left to it...
0.9pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 16.5
0.5pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 28
0.6pts AC Milan v Celtic Unquoted @ 21
Championship:
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94
League 1:
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1
League 2:
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91
Results:
2pts AC Milan v Celtic Scores - Lost 2pts
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64 - Won 2.77pts
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3 - Won 2.47pts
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94 - Lost 4pts
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1 - Lost 2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02 - Lost 3pts
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91 - Won 2.62pts
Total: -3.64pts
December so far: +2.57pts
Sri Lanka v England 1st Test: Update
The end of Day 4 approaches. Quite a pickle I got myself into over the last day or so, but hopefully I've turned it round, and as long as there is a result (which I think is more probable than the odds suggest) all is ok:
Current Position: SL +6.07pts / England +6.3pts / Draw -10pts
Current Position: SL +6.07pts / England +6.3pts / Draw -10pts
Monday, 3 December 2007
Monday Night Football
Two matches tonight, first in the Premiership where United host Fulham. United should win and win with ease, but that's reflected in the odds with United best priced 1.2 and short on the HT/FT market. The handicap of evens for -2 doesn't grab me either although I think it will be hit. I'm going the way of correct scores. 7.2 for 3-0 looks good, much better than the 3.7 for the unquoted score.
I'm going for 3-0 with a view to trade out at 2-0 and/or 3-0
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2
Also in the Championship where Scunthorpe host Blackpool. In their combined last 12 games these teams have 3 points between them but score goals:
Scunthorpe at home, 7 overs from 9
Blackpool away, 6 overs from 9
Blackpool have only failed to score twice in their last 18 league games and this game points to goals...
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12
Update: United 2-0 after 60 minutes and stake taken back @ 3.2
Update: 80 minutes and traded a little so 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 are all winning scores
Update: 2-0 United and a win through trading, meanwhile both Blackpool and Scunthorpe score, but it's 1-1
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2 - Won 3.64pts
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 - Lost 2.5pts
Total: +1.14pts
December so far: +6.21pts
I'm going for 3-0 with a view to trade out at 2-0 and/or 3-0
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2
Also in the Championship where Scunthorpe host Blackpool. In their combined last 12 games these teams have 3 points between them but score goals:
Scunthorpe at home, 7 overs from 9
Blackpool away, 6 overs from 9
Blackpool have only failed to score twice in their last 18 league games and this game points to goals...
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12
Update: United 2-0 after 60 minutes and stake taken back @ 3.2
Update: 80 minutes and traded a little so 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 are all winning scores
Update: 2-0 United and a win through trading, meanwhile both Blackpool and Scunthorpe score, but it's 1-1
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2 - Won 3.64pts
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 - Lost 2.5pts
Total: +1.14pts
December so far: +6.21pts
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