A few games today. Firstly the East Anglian Derby as bottom of the table Norwich host an Ipswich side who can go 4th with a win today. Ipswich's league placing is almost wholly reliant on their home form with 6/6 wins at home but no wins away. 3 draws and 3 losses conceding 13 goals gives them the 3rd worst away record in the league. 7/8 of Norwich's points have come at Carrow Road and they need the win today which will keep them in touch... but still bottom of the league. They will also all be trying to play themselves into new manager Glenn Roeder's plans and goals look on the menu today.
2pts Norwich v Ipswich over 2.5 goals @ 2.0
Another Derby at 2pm as Hearts travel to Hibs, and only a small write up on this one. I think Hearts are slightly overpriced to win at Easter Road, they've got a great record there and although they sit 4 places below Hibs in the league they can enjoy a victory here today.
1pt Hearts to win at Hibs @ 3.5
With Anelka out for Bolton and Bellamy for West Ham the goal line for the 4pm SKY game has been pushed right out and I think it's overpriced. It's may not happen, but it's a good value bet, and if you keep taking the value you'll win in the end
2pts West Ham v Bolton over 2.5 goals @ 2.38
A couple of Spanish 4pm kick offs, firstly two good sides meet in Atletico Madrid v Villarreal, Villareal are about the 'other' Madrid side in the table but Atletico have a very good record at home scoring an average of 3 per game. Villarreal can be pretty indifferent away from home and Atletico are more than backable at a shade under 6/5.
Secondly an Osasuna side who are more than capable host Getafe who have lost all 5 of their away games. Getafe are a poor side and I really can't see them troubling Osasuna and should go down by a couple of goals.
2pts Atletico Madrid to beat Villarreal @ 2.16
3pts Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 2.18
And finally two evening games and two reasonably sized bets. In Italy, Inter travel to Juventus with an undefeated record to protect against the newly promoted Juventus. Juve are up there in the league (4th) while Inter are in first place. Juve have looked shaky on occasion this season and I think Inter can exploit their weaknesses and win by maybe a couple of goals.
In the Conference York travel to Farsley Celtic for the evening match. York have improved as of late and they were fairly unlucky in being edged out 1-0 by Torquay in their last match. Farsley have just lost their manager and could struggle here. I'm taking York to move away from trouble tonight in my bet of the day.
I also think Barcelona are too short to win at 1.21 at home to Betis, I've layed them to win 10 points (to lose just over 2) with a view to trade
4pts Inter Milan to beat Juventus (Draw No Bet) @ 1.91
0.5pts Juventus v Inter Milan 0-3 @ 44
5pts York -0.25 v Farsley Celtic @ 1.96
Lay Barcelona to win 10 points @ 1.21
Update:
Some bad luck again with Atletico being both 2-0 and 3-2 up, Inter losing their lead through a deflected goal with just over 10 minutes left after missing too many chances to count, Hibs holding Hearts and Osasuna unlucky too.
But overall another bad day... still, my bet of the day cam in again.
2pts Norwich v Ipswich over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 - Won +1.9pts
1pt Hearts to win at Hibs @ 3.5 - Lost -1pt
2pts West Ham v Bolton over 2.5 goals @ 2.38 - Lost -2pts
2pts Atletico Madrid to beat Villarreal @ 2.16 - Lost -2pts
3pts Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 2.18 - Lost -3pts
4pts Inter Milan to beat Juventus (Draw No Bet) @ 1.91 - DNB
0.5pts Juventus v Inter Milan 0-3 @ 44 - Lost -0.5pts
5pts York -0.25 v Farsley Celtic @ 1.96 - Won +4.56pts
Lay Barcelona to win 10 points @ 1.21 - Lost -2.1pts
Today: -4.14pts
November so far: -9.55pts
Sunday, 4 November 2007
Saturday, 3 November 2007
Tonight's Boxing
I'm loathe to curse Joe Calzaghe and with the day I'm having today hope I don't but his price tonight is too good to turn down. Calzaghe has the edge in so many departments, speed, hand speed, experience, style, chin (Kessler's hasn't really been tested) and stamina. He has beaten better fighters than Kessler, while Kessler has toiled against much lesser opposition. Granted Kessler is unbeaten, but one man's record will go tonight.
That is not to underestimate Kessler, he is a very good fighter but this is his first major fight outside his native Denmark (he has fought outside Denmark twice but not against what you would class as 'major' opponents). It will be tough but I think Kessler is too one dimensional, he hits to straight and Joe should be able to read him well. Even at odds on Calzaghe is a more than decent bet and I think he's worth the full 5 point bet.
I'll also be taking him to win inside the distance. While more than fit enough to last if needed I think he'll prove too much for the great Dane and send him home tail between his legs.
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5
In the other main fight in Cardiff Enzo Maccarinelli takes on the unbeaten Mohamed Azzaoui. Although Azzaoui is unbeaten he has been brought into this fight as a punch-bag. Enzo is expected to demolish him, can probably will do. However you do not get a record of 22 wins and 0 losses (2 draws) from being a bad fighter. Azzaoui could feasibly hold Enzo for a while before the inevitable win. I'm going for a small interest bet on this one.
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 9 @ 25
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 10 @ 34
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 11 @ 44
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 12 @ 70
Update:
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74 - Won +3.52
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
Maccarinelli Round Betting - Lost -1pt
Tonight: +1.52
November so far: -5.41pts
That is not to underestimate Kessler, he is a very good fighter but this is his first major fight outside his native Denmark (he has fought outside Denmark twice but not against what you would class as 'major' opponents). It will be tough but I think Kessler is too one dimensional, he hits to straight and Joe should be able to read him well. Even at odds on Calzaghe is a more than decent bet and I think he's worth the full 5 point bet.
I'll also be taking him to win inside the distance. While more than fit enough to last if needed I think he'll prove too much for the great Dane and send him home tail between his legs.
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5
In the other main fight in Cardiff Enzo Maccarinelli takes on the unbeaten Mohamed Azzaoui. Although Azzaoui is unbeaten he has been brought into this fight as a punch-bag. Enzo is expected to demolish him, can probably will do. However you do not get a record of 22 wins and 0 losses (2 draws) from being a bad fighter. Azzaoui could feasibly hold Enzo for a while before the inevitable win. I'm going for a small interest bet on this one.
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 9 @ 25
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 10 @ 34
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 11 @ 44
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 12 @ 70
Update:
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74 - Won +3.52
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
Maccarinelli Round Betting - Lost -1pt
Tonight: +1.52
November so far: -5.41pts
Saturday Night Spanish
Two matches tonight, and two home wins. First Mallorca v Valencia - Valencia without David Villa and playing Morientes up front on his own... Mallorca score at home, lots. I think they'll score tonight and I'm not sure if Valencia can reply.
In the other match Sevilla host Real Madrid... Sevilla are without their manager Ramos who has gone to Spurs and they've also had to contend with the death of a player, hence their league position being not the greatest. They're over this now, and can move on with a win over Madrid tonight who haven't looked great this season.
It's two fairly risky plays, but I'm confident, especially on Sevilla.
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2
Update: Mallorca currently 2-0 down... looks like today's bad run is continuing, but in for a penny and I'm going to lay Valencia as I think Mallorca can come back. However instead of the usual laying to win, I'm going to lay them to lose one and a half more points...
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06
Update: Mallorca go down 2-0, another and it's -3.5pts come on Sevilla!
Update: 5 minutes into the Sevilla v Madrid game and both teams look like they're going to forego the defensive game and go all out attack (can Madrid do anything else?) So I'm going to have a couple of bets in the hope the match doesn't calm down at all...
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals
3.5pts on 3 or more @ 1.92
1pt on 4 or more @ 3.35
0.5pts on 5 or more @ 7.2
Update: The attacking has carried on, and 21 minutes in Sevilla are 2-0 up
Update: Half Time and still 2-0. It's a good job Madrid have Casillas in net or this could have been 4 or 5. One more goal (preferably for Sevilla) will secure profit on the goals bet. Any more after than will be bonuses. Luckily I think Madrid will throw everything forward in the second half in their pursuit of the game, leaving gaps for Sevilla to exploit.
Update: A step forward and a step back... it somehow finishes 2-0. The amount of chances missed in the second half (especially by Sevilla) was unbelievable.
Spanish Results:
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8 - Lost -2pts
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06 - Lost -1.5pts
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2 - Won +4.56pts
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals - Lost -5pts
Tonight: -3.94pts
November so far: -6.93pts
In the other match Sevilla host Real Madrid... Sevilla are without their manager Ramos who has gone to Spurs and they've also had to contend with the death of a player, hence their league position being not the greatest. They're over this now, and can move on with a win over Madrid tonight who haven't looked great this season.
It's two fairly risky plays, but I'm confident, especially on Sevilla.
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2
Update: Mallorca currently 2-0 down... looks like today's bad run is continuing, but in for a penny and I'm going to lay Valencia as I think Mallorca can come back. However instead of the usual laying to win, I'm going to lay them to lose one and a half more points...
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06
Update: Mallorca go down 2-0, another and it's -3.5pts come on Sevilla!
Update: 5 minutes into the Sevilla v Madrid game and both teams look like they're going to forego the defensive game and go all out attack (can Madrid do anything else?) So I'm going to have a couple of bets in the hope the match doesn't calm down at all...
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals
3.5pts on 3 or more @ 1.92
1pt on 4 or more @ 3.35
0.5pts on 5 or more @ 7.2
Update: The attacking has carried on, and 21 minutes in Sevilla are 2-0 up
Update: Half Time and still 2-0. It's a good job Madrid have Casillas in net or this could have been 4 or 5. One more goal (preferably for Sevilla) will secure profit on the goals bet. Any more after than will be bonuses. Luckily I think Madrid will throw everything forward in the second half in their pursuit of the game, leaving gaps for Sevilla to exploit.
Update: A step forward and a step back... it somehow finishes 2-0. The amount of chances missed in the second half (especially by Sevilla) was unbelievable.
Spanish Results:
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8 - Lost -2pts
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06 - Lost -1.5pts
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2 - Won +4.56pts
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals - Lost -5pts
Tonight: -3.94pts
November so far: -6.93pts
Saturday - Results
What a nightmare day... they happen occasionally but it's typical one starts the blog today! A little unlucky with Rooney, Blackburn and the unders in the Everton match but still, a loss is a loss.
Premiership:
Arsenal v United 0.5pts 1-1 @ 7.2 - Layed off for no loss
Arsenal v United 0.5pts Rooney FGS @ 9.0 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Blackburn to beat Liverpool @ 3.15 - Lost -1pt
Everton v Birmingham 2.5pts under 2.5 goals @ 1.79 - Lost -2.5pts
Everton v Birmingham 0.5pts 0-0 @ 12.0 - Lost -0.5pts
Lay Middlesbrough to win 2 points @ 3.3 - Won +1.9pts
4pts Chelsea -1.25 v Wigan @ 2.07 - Won +4.07pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts 0-1 @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts Unquoted score @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Lower League Bets:
2pts lays of:
QPR @ 2.54 - Lost -3.08pts
Scunthorpe @ 2.38 - Won +1.9pts
Watford @ 2.1 - Won +1.9pts
Bristol Rovers @ 2.14 - Won +1.9pts
Carlisle @ 2.78 - Lost -3.56pts
Northampton @ 2.68 - Won +1.9pts
Bury @ 2.62 - Lost -3.24pts
Mansfield @ 2.42 - Lost -2.84pts
Wycombe @ 3.1 - Won +1.9pts
In Running Games:
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61 - Lost -1.22pts
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53 - Lost -1.06pts
Today: -5.03pts
November so far: -2.99pts
Premiership:
Arsenal v United 0.5pts 1-1 @ 7.2 - Layed off for no loss
Arsenal v United 0.5pts Rooney FGS @ 9.0 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Blackburn to beat Liverpool @ 3.15 - Lost -1pt
Everton v Birmingham 2.5pts under 2.5 goals @ 1.79 - Lost -2.5pts
Everton v Birmingham 0.5pts 0-0 @ 12.0 - Lost -0.5pts
Lay Middlesbrough to win 2 points @ 3.3 - Won +1.9pts
4pts Chelsea -1.25 v Wigan @ 2.07 - Won +4.07pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts 0-1 @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts Unquoted score @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Lower League Bets:
2pts lays of:
QPR @ 2.54 - Lost -3.08pts
Scunthorpe @ 2.38 - Won +1.9pts
Watford @ 2.1 - Won +1.9pts
Bristol Rovers @ 2.14 - Won +1.9pts
Carlisle @ 2.78 - Lost -3.56pts
Northampton @ 2.68 - Won +1.9pts
Bury @ 2.62 - Lost -3.24pts
Mansfield @ 2.42 - Lost -2.84pts
Wycombe @ 3.1 - Won +1.9pts
In Running Games:
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61 - Lost -1.22pts
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53 - Lost -1.06pts
Today: -5.03pts
November so far: -2.99pts
Saturday - In Play
Great start to the weekend's bets, with Rooney scoring for United and 0-1 at half time. I'll quite happily take this result and miss out on the 1-1 score...
Any in-play updates on todays football will be on this post...
And as soon as that's posted it's 1-1 with a Fabregas goal. I'm going to look at holding onto the 1-1 score for a while longer then laying it late on... Edit: 53 minutes in and layed 1-1 @ 3.0 for no loss if the score changes and a 2pts profit if it stays 1-1
81 minutes in: Ronaldo scores to make it 1-2 : Come on United, defend this lead! Glad I traded out for the no loss on the 1-1
Injury time: Gallas scores and it's 2-2
FT: 2-2... and a double whammy - it looks like the first goal may be given as an own goal! We'll have to see how Betfair settle.
15.30 and so far the lower league lays are looking bad... 3 of the teams I've layed are up, Mansfield by 4! Strike rate on these needs to be about 2/3 so need some of my away teams to do the business.
On other notes, the Everton 0-0 bet is down, just hoping for no more goals, Chelsea are 2 up so 2 more for the unquoted please.
15.40 and two more bets, I've layed Villa who are looking out of sorts against Derby and also Fulham who are 1-0 up against Reading
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53
Any in-play updates on todays football will be on this post...
And as soon as that's posted it's 1-1 with a Fabregas goal. I'm going to look at holding onto the 1-1 score for a while longer then laying it late on... Edit: 53 minutes in and layed 1-1 @ 3.0 for no loss if the score changes and a 2pts profit if it stays 1-1
81 minutes in: Ronaldo scores to make it 1-2 : Come on United, defend this lead! Glad I traded out for the no loss on the 1-1
Injury time: Gallas scores and it's 2-2
FT: 2-2... and a double whammy - it looks like the first goal may be given as an own goal! We'll have to see how Betfair settle.
15.30 and so far the lower league lays are looking bad... 3 of the teams I've layed are up, Mansfield by 4! Strike rate on these needs to be about 2/3 so need some of my away teams to do the business.
On other notes, the Everton 0-0 bet is down, just hoping for no more goals, Chelsea are 2 up so 2 more for the unquoted please.
15.40 and two more bets, I've layed Villa who are looking out of sorts against Derby and also Fulham who are 1-0 up against Reading
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53
Saturday Football
Very briefly, in the main my non Premiership football bets consist of laying home teams in the English lower leagues, I also back the occasional one... There is a lot of research that goes into picking the lays but to put up all my reasoning will give away my methodology, take ages and probably bore you to tears!
So I'll just put up the bets, and occasionally focus on a one or two to give a bit of reasoning...
All these teams I have layed to win 2pts (1.9 after 5% commission)
2pts lays of
QPR @ 2.54
Scunthorpe @ 2.38
Watford @ 2.1
Bristol Rovers @ 2.14
Carlisle @ 2.78
Northampton @ 2.68
Bury @ 2.62
Mansfield @ 2.42
Wycombe @ 3.1
So I'll just put up the bets, and occasionally focus on a one or two to give a bit of reasoning...
All these teams I have layed to win 2pts (1.9 after 5% commission)
2pts lays of
QPR @ 2.54
Scunthorpe @ 2.38
Watford @ 2.1
Bristol Rovers @ 2.14
Carlisle @ 2.78
Northampton @ 2.68
Bury @ 2.62
Mansfield @ 2.42
Wycombe @ 3.1
Friday, 2 November 2007
Boxing - Anderson v McIntyre - In Play
The outsider McIntyre puts Anderson down in the first and Anderson looks in trouble, yet the odds stay low...
I've taken a view and layed Anderson at what seems to be too low odds. McIntyre was a huge outsider before the fight and the market doesn't seem to have reacted properly...
McIntyre may not win, but it's a value play in my eyes...
3pts lay of Anderson @ 1.35
Update - start of round 3 and traded out @ 1.75 for a no lose position on Anderson and a 4.28pts profit if McIntyre wins.
Update - round 11 and layed a biy of McIntyre at 1.06 for just over 4pts win on each of the fighters and over 8pts on the draw. McIntyre should be the winner, bar being knocked out in the 12th but I've seen some really stupid decisions in boxing, and for the sake of a quarter of a point it's worth trading.
Update - McIntyre wins +4.04pts profit on the night
November so far: +2.04pts
I've taken a view and layed Anderson at what seems to be too low odds. McIntyre was a huge outsider before the fight and the market doesn't seem to have reacted properly...
McIntyre may not win, but it's a value play in my eyes...
3pts lay of Anderson @ 1.35
Update - start of round 3 and traded out @ 1.75 for a no lose position on Anderson and a 4.28pts profit if McIntyre wins.
Update - round 11 and layed a biy of McIntyre at 1.06 for just over 4pts win on each of the fighters and over 8pts on the draw. McIntyre should be the winner, bar being knocked out in the 12th but I've seen some really stupid decisions in boxing, and for the sake of a quarter of a point it's worth trading.
Update - McIntyre wins +4.04pts profit on the night
November so far: +2.04pts
Saturday Premiership
Eight Premiership games on Saturday but are there any worthwhile bets?
Arsenal v Man Utd
How do you split them? That's the question here, both on the same amount of points, both with the same goal difference and both in fantastic form. Arsenal were on a 12 match winning streak until they were held by Liverpool last weekend in a game they dominated and United have won 11 in 12 since their defeat at the City of Manchester stadium (their only loss in the Carling Cup). They've also scored 4 goals in each of their last 4 games.
Predicting the winner is almost like flipping a coin, albeit a three sided one. Which brings us nicely to the draw - the draw isn't something I like to back as a rule, but the temptation in this match is great.
Perhaps the most crucial point is defensively although both sides are very strong, only conceding 11 times between them in 21 games (Arsenal's 7 to United's 4) they have both looked slightly unsure at the back recently. However both teams will know what is at stake at 12.45 tomorrow and rather than being an open, fluid match I think it may be a tense affair.
It's hard to pick a bet from this match but I think it is worth a small tickle on the 1-1 draw. I'm also going with Rooney to score first, he's a man bang in form and Arsenal go behind a lot before coming back into games.
0.5pts 1-1 @ 7.2
0.5pts Rooney FGS @ 9.0
Aston Villa v Derby
Despite their thumping by a rampant United a couple of weeks back, Villa are in reasonable form at the moment and host Derby who are win-less in 5 and goal-less in 3. They've won only once this season and tasted defeat seven times, they are the only league club in the country without an away goal, plus they're missing Kenny Miller who is out with a hamstring strain. So far so bad... On the plus side they've only conceded once in their last two away games. Although the odds scream Villa from every which way I've got a feeling Derby may nick something here, and with skinny odds on Villa it's a no bet.
Blackburn v Liverpool
Liverpool have been poor for the last month or so, lucky in four or five games but in general have been getting the result, but this game may be where they lose their unbeaten league start. They've a few injuries with Torres and Alonso being the main ones with a few others doubtful. Blackburn will be without Robbie Savage which is a major blow to them as this is his type of game.
Liverpool have what is arguably their most important match for a few years coming up on Tuesday and they're running, if not on empty, in the red zone. Rafa will need a fresh side for Tuesday and if it comes at the sacrifice of losing their unbeaten run in the league then so be it.
Blackburn will go hell for leather as usual in their pursuit of a top 5 or 6 spot (which they are massively capable of) and I don't know if Liverpool will be able to take it and a repeat of last years win is more than possible
1pt Blackburn to beat Liverpool @ 3.15
Everton v Birmingham
Everton have now got the taste of European football, and unless they can win the UEFA Cup results will have to improve for them to be in it again next year. They've been fairly mediocre this season so far with no sort of consistency. They went into extra time midweek and have to plan for an away trip to Nurnburg next week too. Birmingham on the other hand are fighters, drawing at Liverpool and only going down to the single goal at Chelsea, City and Blackburn and at home against United.
An Arteta-less Everton aren't going to find them easy to break down and at odds on represent no value at all. Under 2.5 goals is 4/5 here but I think should be priced even shorter, one goal may settle it but a repeat of Birmingham's last visit to Merseyside and 0-0 would be no surprise.
2.5pts under 2.5 goals @ 1.79
0.5pts 0-0 @ 12.0
Fulham v Reading
This is a great chance for Fulham to pick up a much needed win against a team that just cannot stop conceding away from home. The only slight problem is Fulham are just as bad, they can't score with one goal in 4. What will happen here is anyone's guess... Will Fulham start scoring? Will Reading stop conceding? It really could be any score from 0-0 to 4-4 and as a result I'm giving it a wide berth.
Middlesboro v Spurs
Spurs travel up to the Riverside with new boss Juande Ramos hoping they can build on their midweek Carling Cup win with 3 much needed points. To be honest, they couldn't have hand-picked a better team to play against. Boro are struggling having lost 6 of their last 7, and although Spurs haven't been much better they can get a result in the North East, whether it's a win or not I can't see less than a point for Spurs here as the leaky 'Boro defence will struggle to keep them out - the final score depending on how well their own very leaky back four performs, but 'boro don't really have the fire-power to trouble them and with Mido out they could struggle even against Spurs. A lay of Middlesboro is my call
Lay Middlesboro to win 2 points @ 3.3
Newcastle v Portsmouth
Staying in the North East and a really tough game to call. Newcastle are strong at home winning their last 4 at St. James', but Pompey are strong away, again winning their last 4. It really is a tough match to call and I've looked everywhere for the value. Other people may conclude differently but I can't find any... anywhere... it's another no bet.
Wigan v Chelsea
On paper this match will only have one result, and I agree with that. Since getting back in the Premiership Wigan have never got so much as a point against any of the "big four" and this isn't going to change soon. Chelsea have too much class for them and this will show, they're playing more fluid, attacking football and scoring lots of goals while Wigan aren't playing as well as they have been the last few seasons.
All signs point to a decent win for Chelsea, however Wigan on their day can keep to total down. The odds on Chelsea outright don't appeal so the handicap of -1.25 looks a good bet (half stake lost if Chelsea win by 1 goal), with a small saver on 0-1 and a little on the unquoted (4 or more scored by a team) Chelsea are my bet of the weekend.
4pts Chelsea -1.25 v Wigan @ 2.07
0.5pts 0-1 @ 7.2
0.5pts Unquoted score @ 7.2
Arsenal v Man Utd
How do you split them? That's the question here, both on the same amount of points, both with the same goal difference and both in fantastic form. Arsenal were on a 12 match winning streak until they were held by Liverpool last weekend in a game they dominated and United have won 11 in 12 since their defeat at the City of Manchester stadium (their only loss in the Carling Cup). They've also scored 4 goals in each of their last 4 games.
Predicting the winner is almost like flipping a coin, albeit a three sided one. Which brings us nicely to the draw - the draw isn't something I like to back as a rule, but the temptation in this match is great.
Perhaps the most crucial point is defensively although both sides are very strong, only conceding 11 times between them in 21 games (Arsenal's 7 to United's 4) they have both looked slightly unsure at the back recently. However both teams will know what is at stake at 12.45 tomorrow and rather than being an open, fluid match I think it may be a tense affair.
It's hard to pick a bet from this match but I think it is worth a small tickle on the 1-1 draw. I'm also going with Rooney to score first, he's a man bang in form and Arsenal go behind a lot before coming back into games.
0.5pts 1-1 @ 7.2
0.5pts Rooney FGS @ 9.0
Aston Villa v Derby
Despite their thumping by a rampant United a couple of weeks back, Villa are in reasonable form at the moment and host Derby who are win-less in 5 and goal-less in 3. They've won only once this season and tasted defeat seven times, they are the only league club in the country without an away goal, plus they're missing Kenny Miller who is out with a hamstring strain. So far so bad... On the plus side they've only conceded once in their last two away games. Although the odds scream Villa from every which way I've got a feeling Derby may nick something here, and with skinny odds on Villa it's a no bet.
Blackburn v Liverpool
Liverpool have been poor for the last month or so, lucky in four or five games but in general have been getting the result, but this game may be where they lose their unbeaten league start. They've a few injuries with Torres and Alonso being the main ones with a few others doubtful. Blackburn will be without Robbie Savage which is a major blow to them as this is his type of game.
Liverpool have what is arguably their most important match for a few years coming up on Tuesday and they're running, if not on empty, in the red zone. Rafa will need a fresh side for Tuesday and if it comes at the sacrifice of losing their unbeaten run in the league then so be it.
Blackburn will go hell for leather as usual in their pursuit of a top 5 or 6 spot (which they are massively capable of) and I don't know if Liverpool will be able to take it and a repeat of last years win is more than possible
1pt Blackburn to beat Liverpool @ 3.15
Everton v Birmingham
Everton have now got the taste of European football, and unless they can win the UEFA Cup results will have to improve for them to be in it again next year. They've been fairly mediocre this season so far with no sort of consistency. They went into extra time midweek and have to plan for an away trip to Nurnburg next week too. Birmingham on the other hand are fighters, drawing at Liverpool and only going down to the single goal at Chelsea, City and Blackburn and at home against United.
An Arteta-less Everton aren't going to find them easy to break down and at odds on represent no value at all. Under 2.5 goals is 4/5 here but I think should be priced even shorter, one goal may settle it but a repeat of Birmingham's last visit to Merseyside and 0-0 would be no surprise.
2.5pts under 2.5 goals @ 1.79
0.5pts 0-0 @ 12.0
Fulham v Reading
This is a great chance for Fulham to pick up a much needed win against a team that just cannot stop conceding away from home. The only slight problem is Fulham are just as bad, they can't score with one goal in 4. What will happen here is anyone's guess... Will Fulham start scoring? Will Reading stop conceding? It really could be any score from 0-0 to 4-4 and as a result I'm giving it a wide berth.
Middlesboro v Spurs
Spurs travel up to the Riverside with new boss Juande Ramos hoping they can build on their midweek Carling Cup win with 3 much needed points. To be honest, they couldn't have hand-picked a better team to play against. Boro are struggling having lost 6 of their last 7, and although Spurs haven't been much better they can get a result in the North East, whether it's a win or not I can't see less than a point for Spurs here as the leaky 'Boro defence will struggle to keep them out - the final score depending on how well their own very leaky back four performs, but 'boro don't really have the fire-power to trouble them and with Mido out they could struggle even against Spurs. A lay of Middlesboro is my call
Lay Middlesboro to win 2 points @ 3.3
Newcastle v Portsmouth
Staying in the North East and a really tough game to call. Newcastle are strong at home winning their last 4 at St. James', but Pompey are strong away, again winning their last 4. It really is a tough match to call and I've looked everywhere for the value. Other people may conclude differently but I can't find any... anywhere... it's another no bet.
Wigan v Chelsea
On paper this match will only have one result, and I agree with that. Since getting back in the Premiership Wigan have never got so much as a point against any of the "big four" and this isn't going to change soon. Chelsea have too much class for them and this will show, they're playing more fluid, attacking football and scoring lots of goals while Wigan aren't playing as well as they have been the last few seasons.
All signs point to a decent win for Chelsea, however Wigan on their day can keep to total down. The odds on Chelsea outright don't appeal so the handicap of -1.25 looks a good bet (half stake lost if Chelsea win by 1 goal), with a small saver on 0-1 and a little on the unquoted (4 or more scored by a team) Chelsea are my bet of the weekend.
4pts Chelsea -1.25 v Wigan @ 2.07
0.5pts 0-1 @ 7.2
0.5pts Unquoted score @ 7.2
Thursday, 1 November 2007
Valladolid 1 v 1 Barcelona
Hmmm... not a great start to the month, in fact a positively rubbish start to the month! Barcelona as (un)reliable as ever and a 2 point lost. Still it's a marathon, not a sprint and there will be lots of losses as well as wins along the way. Well things can only get better!
November so far: -2pts
November so far: -2pts
Valladolid v Barcelona - Asian Handicap
"Don't back odds on away from home"
The first bet on the blog and it I'm going to break a rule that a lot of people go by in football, I'm backing a team at odds on away from home. I can see where people are coming from with this rule, but as always, there are cases where the exception is the way to go.
Tonight third placed Barcelona travel to next to bottom Valladolid knowing that a win will take them within two points of Real Madrid at the top of La Liga. Barcelona's away form has been pretty indifferent this season standing at W1-D2-L1 but Valladolid's home form is W0-D2-L2 and they have conceded 9 goals in these 4 matches.
I can't see past Barca's attack controlling the game tonight and would in no way be surprised to see them bang in a few goals, they have already scored 4 away from home once this season and with Messi in for the injured Henry it could be argued they pose an even greater threat.
The odds of even less than 1/2 aren't the most appealing in the world so I've gone for Barca on the asian handicap -1 goal @ 1.7 meaning if they win by 1 goal I get the stake back, 2 or more goals is the winner.
2pts Barcelona -1 @ 1.7
The first bet on the blog and it I'm going to break a rule that a lot of people go by in football, I'm backing a team at odds on away from home. I can see where people are coming from with this rule, but as always, there are cases where the exception is the way to go.
Tonight third placed Barcelona travel to next to bottom Valladolid knowing that a win will take them within two points of Real Madrid at the top of La Liga. Barcelona's away form has been pretty indifferent this season standing at W1-D2-L1 but Valladolid's home form is W0-D2-L2 and they have conceded 9 goals in these 4 matches.
I can't see past Barca's attack controlling the game tonight and would in no way be surprised to see them bang in a few goals, they have already scored 4 away from home once this season and with Messi in for the injured Henry it could be argued they pose an even greater threat.
The odds of even less than 1/2 aren't the most appealing in the world so I've gone for Barca on the asian handicap -1 goal @ 1.7 meaning if they win by 1 goal I get the stake back, 2 or more goals is the winner.
2pts Barcelona -1 @ 1.7
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