And a bit shorter post than yesterday as there isn't a whole lot of value about tonight in the outright markets especially. There is a touch on some of the handicaps though and on one game in particular...
Firstly to Old Trafford and a United team that breezed past Dynamo in Kiev two weeks ago, and there is absolutely nothing to say they can't do it again, and with even more authority tonight and I'll be relying on another result tonight... Every which way I've looked at it, and no matter how hard I've tried to see around it I cannot get past a big United win tonight... If it doesn't happen it may hit my bank and hit it hard, but it's a risk well worth taking.
The way I see it is thus... a win to nil for United of 3 or more goals. I can't see Dynamo scoring and with my staking plan here if United score 3 or more I will get out of a Dynamo goal relatively unscathed. The issue arises if United score under 3 or Dynamo more than 1... but I can't see either happening, I'm also breaking my usual 5 point barrier on the Asian Handicap betting and going for a maximum 10 point bet!
Just praying United score 3 now or it's a big big loss tonight!
10pts United -2 @ 1.855
1pt United to win 3-1 @ 14
4pts Unquoted score (4+ either side) @ 3.25
I'm also looking at a few more bets... will post them up if and when.
Update: 2-0 to United at half time and looking ok... just hoping for at least one more unanswered goal from United, 2 more for the big win. Let's hope there is no let up...
Update: Halfway through the second half and still 2-0... There has been chances though at both ends... Saha on for Tevez... come on one more at least...
Update: 75 minutes in... Rooney 3-0... phew, was getting near squeaky bum time there!
Update: 87 minutes and finally... 4-0 from Ronaldo
Full time and 4-0
10pts United -2 @ 1.855 - Won +8.12pts
1pt United to win 3-1 @ 14 - Lost -1pt
4pts Unquoted score (4+ either side) @ 3.25 - Won +8.55pts
Today: +15.67pts
November so far: +5.97pts
Wednesday, 7 November 2007
Tuesday, 6 November 2007
Tuesday Roundup
Another losing night, only a small loss but a loss all the same - this is becoming a habit I need to break! I think I will try and re-think my laying home teams strategy a little as this is dragging me down I feel. Looking at it again there are far too many bets tonight. It's a habit I've got out of, but I think with this blog I've got back into it... need to cut back again. There is a lot of work going in to the lower league lays and they're just not coming off... maybe the same amount of work can bring better results elsewhere?
3pts Celtic to beat Benfica 2.16 - Won +3.31pts
0.5pts Celtic to win 1-0 @ 7.6 - Won +3.14pts
0.5pts Scott McDonald FGS @ 7 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt HT/FT Draw/Liverpool @ 4.8 - Lost -1pt
0.5pts Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
2.5pts Madrid to beat Olympiacos @ 2.2 - Lost -2.5pts
0.5pts Madrid to win 3-0 @ 23 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Porto to win 1-0 @ 6.6 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Porto to win 2-0 @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Lampard FGS @ 8.8 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Milan to beat Shaktar @ 2.34 - Won +1.27pts
2pts lays of
Colchester @ 2.64 - Won +1.9pts
Preston @ 2.28 - Won +1.9pts
QPR @ 2.48 - Won +1.9pts
Cheltenham @ 3.05 - Won +1.9pts
Gillingham @ 2.94 - Won +1.9pts
Huddersfield @ 2.82 - Lost -3.64pts
Nottm Forest @ 1.88 - Lost -1.76pts
Tranmere @ 1.94 - Won +1.9pts
Bradford @ 2.66 - Lost -3.33pts
Hereford @ 1.86 - Lost -1.72pts
Morecambe @ 2.34 - Won +1.9pts
Rotherham @ 2.26 - Lost -2.52pts
2pts Swansea to beat Millwall @ 2.4 - Lost -2pts
1pt Chester to beat Bradford @ 2.9 - Lost -1pt
0.5pts acca @ 179.96 - Lost -0.5pts
Today: -1.95pts
November so far: -9.70pts
3pts Celtic to beat Benfica 2.16 - Won +3.31pts
0.5pts Celtic to win 1-0 @ 7.6 - Won +3.14pts
0.5pts Scott McDonald FGS @ 7 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt HT/FT Draw/Liverpool @ 4.8 - Lost -1pt
0.5pts Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
2.5pts Madrid to beat Olympiacos @ 2.2 - Lost -2.5pts
0.5pts Madrid to win 3-0 @ 23 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Porto to win 1-0 @ 6.6 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Porto to win 2-0 @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Lampard FGS @ 8.8 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Milan to beat Shaktar @ 2.34 - Won +1.27pts
2pts lays of
Colchester @ 2.64 - Won +1.9pts
Preston @ 2.28 - Won +1.9pts
QPR @ 2.48 - Won +1.9pts
Cheltenham @ 3.05 - Won +1.9pts
Gillingham @ 2.94 - Won +1.9pts
Huddersfield @ 2.82 - Lost -3.64pts
Nottm Forest @ 1.88 - Lost -1.76pts
Tranmere @ 1.94 - Won +1.9pts
Bradford @ 2.66 - Lost -3.33pts
Hereford @ 1.86 - Lost -1.72pts
Morecambe @ 2.34 - Won +1.9pts
Rotherham @ 2.26 - Lost -2.52pts
2pts Swansea to beat Millwall @ 2.4 - Lost -2pts
1pt Chester to beat Bradford @ 2.9 - Lost -1pt
0.5pts acca @ 179.96 - Lost -0.5pts
Today: -1.95pts
November so far: -9.70pts
A busy night of football...
With eight Champion's League matches, and a full Championship, League 1 and League 2 programme this could turn out to be a very busy night!
Start at the top with the Champion's League:
Celtic v Benfica
Celtic at home and Celtic away may as well be two different teams. An almost perfect record at Parkhead means if they could transfer even some of their form to away games they'd be right up there every year. As it is they lost the away game against Benfica, despite holding out for most of the match, meaning anything but a win here means their Champions League run is all but over for another year.
I'm not usually one for backing teams that "need" to win games but one look at Celtic's home record, including a great win against Milan only a few weeks back, and a 3-0 victory against Benfica last season mean that at odds against Celtic must be backed. I do think it will be a tight game though, Benfica know a draw would be a good result for them, but I think Celtic will break them down in the end, and if they do, Scott McDonald with 13 goals in the last 14 games may be the man to do it.
3pts Celtic to beat Benfica 2.16
0.5pts Celtic to win 1-0 @ 7.6
0.5pts Scott McDonald FGS @ 7
Lazio v Werder Bremen
A really hard match to call either way. Bremen won the home game 2-1 and go into this as only slight outsiders. Both teams need the win to help their chances of qualifying and it's a match I'd hate to bet on. So I'm not. Gun to my head score? 1-1, but there is no gun, so it's a no bet.
Liverpool v Besiktas
Liverpool, Liverpool, poor hapless Liverpool... still up there in the league after scraping lucky wins and somehow still undefeated... however they seem to be found out in the Champions League. Is tonight the night the night that the fat Spanish waiter loses his job?
A reprieve may be his as I think Liverpool will win tonight, it won't be easy, and I'm definitely not touching any of the 1.27 so generously offered on Betfair. Instead I'll try and hunt out a bit of value. As I think Besiktas can frustrate Liverpool the bet for me has to be HT/FT Draw/Liverpool at far more attractive odds. I'll also have a speculative point on 1-0
1pt HT/FT Draw/Liverpool @ 4.8
0.5pts Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 7.4
Olympiacos v Real Madrid
The main issue for Olympicos here is they are missing 3 of their first choice defensive players through a combination of injury and suspension. This does not bode well against most sides, but against a team with the attacking prowess of Real, who only need one more win to qualify, this means only one thing to me - a Madrid win, and a good one.
2.5pts Madrid to beat Olympiacos @ 2.2
0.5pts Madrid to win 3-0 @ 23
Porto v Marseille
Marseille are struggling in the French League but they seem a different team in Europe, winning 2 and drawing 1 of their matches so far and sitting pretty on top of Group A. However, I think they may struggle tonight against a Porto side that should have beaten then last gameweek. I think the odds on the Porto win are a little on the short side and am struggling to find the value. I'd imagine this will be a pretty close game, finishing either 1-0 or 2-0 to Porto who should do it on home turf.
0.5pts Porto to win 1-0 @ 6.6
0.5pts Porto to win 2-0 @ 7.4
Schalke v Chelsea
Another match where the value is so hard to find. I don't think Chelsea will concede in Germany, but can they go out there and score? Chelsea sit in prime position while Schalke need the win to improve their chances of qualifying. It's a hard one, will Chelsea attack or will they sit back and hope to catch Schalke on the break? There are too many unanswered questions in this game. I think it will be low scoring though - IF - it stays level for a while. An early goal from Chelsea (or to a lesser extent Schalke) could mean quite an open game.
The only bet that catches my eye here is an in form Lampard to score first at a reasonable 8/1
0.5pts Lampard FGS @ 8.8
Shaktar v Milan
Thankfully a simpler match. Milan won the return of this match scoring 4 goals and will know a win will more or less secure their progression through the group. The previous 3 matches between these two teams have all been won by Milan, and even though Shaktar have improved this season, I think Milan will have too much for them again, but with Shaktar being so much improved I'm keeping stakes to a minimum
1pt Milan to beat Shaktar @ 2.34
Valencia v Rosenborg
All signs here point to a Valencia win, except the fact that Rosenborg beat them in the return match.... The odds are far too short on Valencia and in my eyes would be more of a lay at the current price of 1.26/1.27 than a back. But I don't expect much movement in price for the first half, unless Rosenborg score so the lay would be a bit of a waste. I'm going to leave this match well alone, unless Rosenborg do score first and early, when I can hopefully get a good price on the Valencia comeback.
Moving into the lower English leagues, and a couple of bets and once again all these teams I have layed to win 2pts (1.9 after 5% commission)
2pts lays of
Colchester @ 2.64
Preston @ 2.28
QPR @ 2.48
Cheltenham @ 3.05
Gillingham @ 2.94
Huddersfield @ 2.82
Nottm Forest @ 1.88
Tranmere @ 1.94
Bradford @ 2.66
Hereford @ 1.86
Morecambe @ 2.34
Rotherham @ 2.26
2pts Swansea to beat Millwall @ 2.4
1pt Chester to beat Bradford @ 2.9
Additionally I've also gone for a small accumulator of Celtic, Madrid, Cardiff, Swansea, Chester, West Brom & Watford... utter mug bet... but there is 0.5pts acca @ 179.96
Start at the top with the Champion's League:
Celtic v Benfica
Celtic at home and Celtic away may as well be two different teams. An almost perfect record at Parkhead means if they could transfer even some of their form to away games they'd be right up there every year. As it is they lost the away game against Benfica, despite holding out for most of the match, meaning anything but a win here means their Champions League run is all but over for another year.
I'm not usually one for backing teams that "need" to win games but one look at Celtic's home record, including a great win against Milan only a few weeks back, and a 3-0 victory against Benfica last season mean that at odds against Celtic must be backed. I do think it will be a tight game though, Benfica know a draw would be a good result for them, but I think Celtic will break them down in the end, and if they do, Scott McDonald with 13 goals in the last 14 games may be the man to do it.
3pts Celtic to beat Benfica 2.16
0.5pts Celtic to win 1-0 @ 7.6
0.5pts Scott McDonald FGS @ 7
Lazio v Werder Bremen
A really hard match to call either way. Bremen won the home game 2-1 and go into this as only slight outsiders. Both teams need the win to help their chances of qualifying and it's a match I'd hate to bet on. So I'm not. Gun to my head score? 1-1, but there is no gun, so it's a no bet.
Liverpool v Besiktas
Liverpool, Liverpool, poor hapless Liverpool... still up there in the league after scraping lucky wins and somehow still undefeated... however they seem to be found out in the Champions League. Is tonight the night the night that the fat Spanish waiter loses his job?
A reprieve may be his as I think Liverpool will win tonight, it won't be easy, and I'm definitely not touching any of the 1.27 so generously offered on Betfair. Instead I'll try and hunt out a bit of value. As I think Besiktas can frustrate Liverpool the bet for me has to be HT/FT Draw/Liverpool at far more attractive odds. I'll also have a speculative point on 1-0
1pt HT/FT Draw/Liverpool @ 4.8
0.5pts Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 7.4
Olympiacos v Real Madrid
The main issue for Olympicos here is they are missing 3 of their first choice defensive players through a combination of injury and suspension. This does not bode well against most sides, but against a team with the attacking prowess of Real, who only need one more win to qualify, this means only one thing to me - a Madrid win, and a good one.
2.5pts Madrid to beat Olympiacos @ 2.2
0.5pts Madrid to win 3-0 @ 23
Porto v Marseille
Marseille are struggling in the French League but they seem a different team in Europe, winning 2 and drawing 1 of their matches so far and sitting pretty on top of Group A. However, I think they may struggle tonight against a Porto side that should have beaten then last gameweek. I think the odds on the Porto win are a little on the short side and am struggling to find the value. I'd imagine this will be a pretty close game, finishing either 1-0 or 2-0 to Porto who should do it on home turf.
0.5pts Porto to win 1-0 @ 6.6
0.5pts Porto to win 2-0 @ 7.4
Schalke v Chelsea
Another match where the value is so hard to find. I don't think Chelsea will concede in Germany, but can they go out there and score? Chelsea sit in prime position while Schalke need the win to improve their chances of qualifying. It's a hard one, will Chelsea attack or will they sit back and hope to catch Schalke on the break? There are too many unanswered questions in this game. I think it will be low scoring though - IF - it stays level for a while. An early goal from Chelsea (or to a lesser extent Schalke) could mean quite an open game.
The only bet that catches my eye here is an in form Lampard to score first at a reasonable 8/1
0.5pts Lampard FGS @ 8.8
Shaktar v Milan
Thankfully a simpler match. Milan won the return of this match scoring 4 goals and will know a win will more or less secure their progression through the group. The previous 3 matches between these two teams have all been won by Milan, and even though Shaktar have improved this season, I think Milan will have too much for them again, but with Shaktar being so much improved I'm keeping stakes to a minimum
1pt Milan to beat Shaktar @ 2.34
Valencia v Rosenborg
All signs here point to a Valencia win, except the fact that Rosenborg beat them in the return match.... The odds are far too short on Valencia and in my eyes would be more of a lay at the current price of 1.26/1.27 than a back. But I don't expect much movement in price for the first half, unless Rosenborg score so the lay would be a bit of a waste. I'm going to leave this match well alone, unless Rosenborg do score first and early, when I can hopefully get a good price on the Valencia comeback.
Moving into the lower English leagues, and a couple of bets and once again all these teams I have layed to win 2pts (1.9 after 5% commission)
2pts lays of
Colchester @ 2.64
Preston @ 2.28
QPR @ 2.48
Cheltenham @ 3.05
Gillingham @ 2.94
Huddersfield @ 2.82
Nottm Forest @ 1.88
Tranmere @ 1.94
Bradford @ 2.66
Hereford @ 1.86
Morecambe @ 2.34
Rotherham @ 2.26
2pts Swansea to beat Millwall @ 2.4
1pt Chester to beat Bradford @ 2.9
Additionally I've also gone for a small accumulator of Celtic, Madrid, Cardiff, Swansea, Chester, West Brom & Watford... utter mug bet... but there is 0.5pts acca @ 179.96
Monday, 5 November 2007
Monday Night Football
Time to get back on track with two matches tonight.
First of all City host Sunderland at pretty much full strength except Micah Richards who has a bruised knee. Sunderland however have a few problems with McShane and Halford suspended and a few injury worries too. City are the only team in the top flight with 100% home wins and it is a puzzle as to how Sunderland can change that tonight.
I've been looking for any sort of value or glimmer of hope for Sunderland however I actually think City are actually overpriced at home tonight as a result of their 0-6 reversal at Chelsea, the late winner against Bolton in the League Cup giving them the much needed boost to get over their tonking.
But... in my experience odds on and City just doesn't mix well, they are one of the most unreliable odds on sides I have ever come across... but with Petrov back and Elano firing I think they should have too much for a Sunderland side who, while they can score goals also concede a whole lot of them (14 in 6 away games)
In the 7 games City have won in the league they have led at half time in 5 of them while Sunderland have been behind at half time in 4/6 losses. The City HT/FT may hold a bit of value too, but I'm going to stick with the outright bet and also a little on City having their 3rd 3-1 victory of the season.
3.5pts City to beat Sunderland @ 1.76
0.5pts City to beat Sunderland 3-1 @ 16
Meanwhile in the Championship Barnsley (home record 4-2-1) host Blackpool (away record 1-2-4) knowing a win can take them to 4th in the league. While no great shakes away from home Barnsley are a different side at Oakwell not losing since the first day of the season. Blackpool meanwhile haven't won in 9 league matches and although they had the weekend off I don't think tiredness will bother Barnsley too much at this stage of the season.
However I have a funny feeling about this game, I can see Blackpool maybe nicking the draw. I'll leave this match be and keep my powder dry for a big week of Champions League and UEFA matches.
Update:
Layed City at 1.07 for the stake but they won 1-0 anyway so a win! Lost on the score though and Barnsley won too.
3.5pts City to beat Sunderland @ 1.76 - Won +2.3pts
0.5pts City to beat Sunderland 3-1 @ 16 - Lost -0.5pts
Today: +1.8pts
November so far: -7.75pts
First of all City host Sunderland at pretty much full strength except Micah Richards who has a bruised knee. Sunderland however have a few problems with McShane and Halford suspended and a few injury worries too. City are the only team in the top flight with 100% home wins and it is a puzzle as to how Sunderland can change that tonight.
I've been looking for any sort of value or glimmer of hope for Sunderland however I actually think City are actually overpriced at home tonight as a result of their 0-6 reversal at Chelsea, the late winner against Bolton in the League Cup giving them the much needed boost to get over their tonking.
But... in my experience odds on and City just doesn't mix well, they are one of the most unreliable odds on sides I have ever come across... but with Petrov back and Elano firing I think they should have too much for a Sunderland side who, while they can score goals also concede a whole lot of them (14 in 6 away games)
In the 7 games City have won in the league they have led at half time in 5 of them while Sunderland have been behind at half time in 4/6 losses. The City HT/FT may hold a bit of value too, but I'm going to stick with the outright bet and also a little on City having their 3rd 3-1 victory of the season.
3.5pts City to beat Sunderland @ 1.76
0.5pts City to beat Sunderland 3-1 @ 16
Meanwhile in the Championship Barnsley (home record 4-2-1) host Blackpool (away record 1-2-4) knowing a win can take them to 4th in the league. While no great shakes away from home Barnsley are a different side at Oakwell not losing since the first day of the season. Blackpool meanwhile haven't won in 9 league matches and although they had the weekend off I don't think tiredness will bother Barnsley too much at this stage of the season.
However I have a funny feeling about this game, I can see Blackpool maybe nicking the draw. I'll leave this match be and keep my powder dry for a big week of Champions League and UEFA matches.
Update:
Layed City at 1.07 for the stake but they won 1-0 anyway so a win! Lost on the score though and Barnsley won too.
3.5pts City to beat Sunderland @ 1.76 - Won +2.3pts
0.5pts City to beat Sunderland 3-1 @ 16 - Lost -0.5pts
Today: +1.8pts
November so far: -7.75pts
Sunday, 4 November 2007
Weekend Round Up
Typical for the first weekend on the blog, it's definitely a weekend to forget. There has been some bad luck, with Everton's under 2.5 goals being blown in the 90th minute and Inter dominating totally then ending up drawing the game amongst others. But luck evens itself out over time.
There are winning weekends and losing weekends but this one is a particularly bad one. The key now is to dust off and go again. Plenty of sport in the week coming up and a winning week would be good. The plan for the next week is to get back on a level for the month, meaning firstly a 9.55pts profit is needed and secondly, there is a week less to reach the monthly target... but what is life without challenge.
Onwards and (hopefully) upwards!
There are winning weekends and losing weekends but this one is a particularly bad one. The key now is to dust off and go again. Plenty of sport in the week coming up and a winning week would be good. The plan for the next week is to get back on a level for the month, meaning firstly a 9.55pts profit is needed and secondly, there is a week less to reach the monthly target... but what is life without challenge.
Onwards and (hopefully) upwards!
Sunday Football - In Play
A few games today. Firstly the East Anglian Derby as bottom of the table Norwich host an Ipswich side who can go 4th with a win today. Ipswich's league placing is almost wholly reliant on their home form with 6/6 wins at home but no wins away. 3 draws and 3 losses conceding 13 goals gives them the 3rd worst away record in the league. 7/8 of Norwich's points have come at Carrow Road and they need the win today which will keep them in touch... but still bottom of the league. They will also all be trying to play themselves into new manager Glenn Roeder's plans and goals look on the menu today.
2pts Norwich v Ipswich over 2.5 goals @ 2.0
Another Derby at 2pm as Hearts travel to Hibs, and only a small write up on this one. I think Hearts are slightly overpriced to win at Easter Road, they've got a great record there and although they sit 4 places below Hibs in the league they can enjoy a victory here today.
1pt Hearts to win at Hibs @ 3.5
With Anelka out for Bolton and Bellamy for West Ham the goal line for the 4pm SKY game has been pushed right out and I think it's overpriced. It's may not happen, but it's a good value bet, and if you keep taking the value you'll win in the end
2pts West Ham v Bolton over 2.5 goals @ 2.38
A couple of Spanish 4pm kick offs, firstly two good sides meet in Atletico Madrid v Villarreal, Villareal are about the 'other' Madrid side in the table but Atletico have a very good record at home scoring an average of 3 per game. Villarreal can be pretty indifferent away from home and Atletico are more than backable at a shade under 6/5.
Secondly an Osasuna side who are more than capable host Getafe who have lost all 5 of their away games. Getafe are a poor side and I really can't see them troubling Osasuna and should go down by a couple of goals.
2pts Atletico Madrid to beat Villarreal @ 2.16
3pts Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 2.18
And finally two evening games and two reasonably sized bets. In Italy, Inter travel to Juventus with an undefeated record to protect against the newly promoted Juventus. Juve are up there in the league (4th) while Inter are in first place. Juve have looked shaky on occasion this season and I think Inter can exploit their weaknesses and win by maybe a couple of goals.
In the Conference York travel to Farsley Celtic for the evening match. York have improved as of late and they were fairly unlucky in being edged out 1-0 by Torquay in their last match. Farsley have just lost their manager and could struggle here. I'm taking York to move away from trouble tonight in my bet of the day.
I also think Barcelona are too short to win at 1.21 at home to Betis, I've layed them to win 10 points (to lose just over 2) with a view to trade
4pts Inter Milan to beat Juventus (Draw No Bet) @ 1.91
0.5pts Juventus v Inter Milan 0-3 @ 44
5pts York -0.25 v Farsley Celtic @ 1.96
Lay Barcelona to win 10 points @ 1.21
Update:
Some bad luck again with Atletico being both 2-0 and 3-2 up, Inter losing their lead through a deflected goal with just over 10 minutes left after missing too many chances to count, Hibs holding Hearts and Osasuna unlucky too.
But overall another bad day... still, my bet of the day cam in again.
2pts Norwich v Ipswich over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 - Won +1.9pts
1pt Hearts to win at Hibs @ 3.5 - Lost -1pt
2pts West Ham v Bolton over 2.5 goals @ 2.38 - Lost -2pts
2pts Atletico Madrid to beat Villarreal @ 2.16 - Lost -2pts
3pts Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 2.18 - Lost -3pts
4pts Inter Milan to beat Juventus (Draw No Bet) @ 1.91 - DNB
0.5pts Juventus v Inter Milan 0-3 @ 44 - Lost -0.5pts
5pts York -0.25 v Farsley Celtic @ 1.96 - Won +4.56pts
Lay Barcelona to win 10 points @ 1.21 - Lost -2.1pts
Today: -4.14pts
November so far: -9.55pts
2pts Norwich v Ipswich over 2.5 goals @ 2.0
Another Derby at 2pm as Hearts travel to Hibs, and only a small write up on this one. I think Hearts are slightly overpriced to win at Easter Road, they've got a great record there and although they sit 4 places below Hibs in the league they can enjoy a victory here today.
1pt Hearts to win at Hibs @ 3.5
With Anelka out for Bolton and Bellamy for West Ham the goal line for the 4pm SKY game has been pushed right out and I think it's overpriced. It's may not happen, but it's a good value bet, and if you keep taking the value you'll win in the end
2pts West Ham v Bolton over 2.5 goals @ 2.38
A couple of Spanish 4pm kick offs, firstly two good sides meet in Atletico Madrid v Villarreal, Villareal are about the 'other' Madrid side in the table but Atletico have a very good record at home scoring an average of 3 per game. Villarreal can be pretty indifferent away from home and Atletico are more than backable at a shade under 6/5.
Secondly an Osasuna side who are more than capable host Getafe who have lost all 5 of their away games. Getafe are a poor side and I really can't see them troubling Osasuna and should go down by a couple of goals.
2pts Atletico Madrid to beat Villarreal @ 2.16
3pts Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 2.18
And finally two evening games and two reasonably sized bets. In Italy, Inter travel to Juventus with an undefeated record to protect against the newly promoted Juventus. Juve are up there in the league (4th) while Inter are in first place. Juve have looked shaky on occasion this season and I think Inter can exploit their weaknesses and win by maybe a couple of goals.
In the Conference York travel to Farsley Celtic for the evening match. York have improved as of late and they were fairly unlucky in being edged out 1-0 by Torquay in their last match. Farsley have just lost their manager and could struggle here. I'm taking York to move away from trouble tonight in my bet of the day.
I also think Barcelona are too short to win at 1.21 at home to Betis, I've layed them to win 10 points (to lose just over 2) with a view to trade
4pts Inter Milan to beat Juventus (Draw No Bet) @ 1.91
0.5pts Juventus v Inter Milan 0-3 @ 44
5pts York -0.25 v Farsley Celtic @ 1.96
Lay Barcelona to win 10 points @ 1.21
Update:
Some bad luck again with Atletico being both 2-0 and 3-2 up, Inter losing their lead through a deflected goal with just over 10 minutes left after missing too many chances to count, Hibs holding Hearts and Osasuna unlucky too.
But overall another bad day... still, my bet of the day cam in again.
2pts Norwich v Ipswich over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 - Won +1.9pts
1pt Hearts to win at Hibs @ 3.5 - Lost -1pt
2pts West Ham v Bolton over 2.5 goals @ 2.38 - Lost -2pts
2pts Atletico Madrid to beat Villarreal @ 2.16 - Lost -2pts
3pts Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 2.18 - Lost -3pts
4pts Inter Milan to beat Juventus (Draw No Bet) @ 1.91 - DNB
0.5pts Juventus v Inter Milan 0-3 @ 44 - Lost -0.5pts
5pts York -0.25 v Farsley Celtic @ 1.96 - Won +4.56pts
Lay Barcelona to win 10 points @ 1.21 - Lost -2.1pts
Today: -4.14pts
November so far: -9.55pts
Saturday, 3 November 2007
Tonight's Boxing
I'm loathe to curse Joe Calzaghe and with the day I'm having today hope I don't but his price tonight is too good to turn down. Calzaghe has the edge in so many departments, speed, hand speed, experience, style, chin (Kessler's hasn't really been tested) and stamina. He has beaten better fighters than Kessler, while Kessler has toiled against much lesser opposition. Granted Kessler is unbeaten, but one man's record will go tonight.
That is not to underestimate Kessler, he is a very good fighter but this is his first major fight outside his native Denmark (he has fought outside Denmark twice but not against what you would class as 'major' opponents). It will be tough but I think Kessler is too one dimensional, he hits to straight and Joe should be able to read him well. Even at odds on Calzaghe is a more than decent bet and I think he's worth the full 5 point bet.
I'll also be taking him to win inside the distance. While more than fit enough to last if needed I think he'll prove too much for the great Dane and send him home tail between his legs.
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5
In the other main fight in Cardiff Enzo Maccarinelli takes on the unbeaten Mohamed Azzaoui. Although Azzaoui is unbeaten he has been brought into this fight as a punch-bag. Enzo is expected to demolish him, can probably will do. However you do not get a record of 22 wins and 0 losses (2 draws) from being a bad fighter. Azzaoui could feasibly hold Enzo for a while before the inevitable win. I'm going for a small interest bet on this one.
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 9 @ 25
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 10 @ 34
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 11 @ 44
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 12 @ 70
Update:
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74 - Won +3.52
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
Maccarinelli Round Betting - Lost -1pt
Tonight: +1.52
November so far: -5.41pts
That is not to underestimate Kessler, he is a very good fighter but this is his first major fight outside his native Denmark (he has fought outside Denmark twice but not against what you would class as 'major' opponents). It will be tough but I think Kessler is too one dimensional, he hits to straight and Joe should be able to read him well. Even at odds on Calzaghe is a more than decent bet and I think he's worth the full 5 point bet.
I'll also be taking him to win inside the distance. While more than fit enough to last if needed I think he'll prove too much for the great Dane and send him home tail between his legs.
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5
In the other main fight in Cardiff Enzo Maccarinelli takes on the unbeaten Mohamed Azzaoui. Although Azzaoui is unbeaten he has been brought into this fight as a punch-bag. Enzo is expected to demolish him, can probably will do. However you do not get a record of 22 wins and 0 losses (2 draws) from being a bad fighter. Azzaoui could feasibly hold Enzo for a while before the inevitable win. I'm going for a small interest bet on this one.
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 9 @ 25
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 10 @ 34
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 11 @ 44
0.25pts Maccarinelli to win in Round 12 @ 70
Update:
5pts Calzaghe to beat Kessler @ 1.74 - Won +3.52
1pt Calzaghe to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
Maccarinelli Round Betting - Lost -1pt
Tonight: +1.52
November so far: -5.41pts
Saturday Night Spanish
Two matches tonight, and two home wins. First Mallorca v Valencia - Valencia without David Villa and playing Morientes up front on his own... Mallorca score at home, lots. I think they'll score tonight and I'm not sure if Valencia can reply.
In the other match Sevilla host Real Madrid... Sevilla are without their manager Ramos who has gone to Spurs and they've also had to contend with the death of a player, hence their league position being not the greatest. They're over this now, and can move on with a win over Madrid tonight who haven't looked great this season.
It's two fairly risky plays, but I'm confident, especially on Sevilla.
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2
Update: Mallorca currently 2-0 down... looks like today's bad run is continuing, but in for a penny and I'm going to lay Valencia as I think Mallorca can come back. However instead of the usual laying to win, I'm going to lay them to lose one and a half more points...
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06
Update: Mallorca go down 2-0, another and it's -3.5pts come on Sevilla!
Update: 5 minutes into the Sevilla v Madrid game and both teams look like they're going to forego the defensive game and go all out attack (can Madrid do anything else?) So I'm going to have a couple of bets in the hope the match doesn't calm down at all...
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals
3.5pts on 3 or more @ 1.92
1pt on 4 or more @ 3.35
0.5pts on 5 or more @ 7.2
Update: The attacking has carried on, and 21 minutes in Sevilla are 2-0 up
Update: Half Time and still 2-0. It's a good job Madrid have Casillas in net or this could have been 4 or 5. One more goal (preferably for Sevilla) will secure profit on the goals bet. Any more after than will be bonuses. Luckily I think Madrid will throw everything forward in the second half in their pursuit of the game, leaving gaps for Sevilla to exploit.
Update: A step forward and a step back... it somehow finishes 2-0. The amount of chances missed in the second half (especially by Sevilla) was unbelievable.
Spanish Results:
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8 - Lost -2pts
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06 - Lost -1.5pts
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2 - Won +4.56pts
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals - Lost -5pts
Tonight: -3.94pts
November so far: -6.93pts
In the other match Sevilla host Real Madrid... Sevilla are without their manager Ramos who has gone to Spurs and they've also had to contend with the death of a player, hence their league position being not the greatest. They're over this now, and can move on with a win over Madrid tonight who haven't looked great this season.
It's two fairly risky plays, but I'm confident, especially on Sevilla.
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2
Update: Mallorca currently 2-0 down... looks like today's bad run is continuing, but in for a penny and I'm going to lay Valencia as I think Mallorca can come back. However instead of the usual laying to win, I'm going to lay them to lose one and a half more points...
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06
Update: Mallorca go down 2-0, another and it's -3.5pts come on Sevilla!
Update: 5 minutes into the Sevilla v Madrid game and both teams look like they're going to forego the defensive game and go all out attack (can Madrid do anything else?) So I'm going to have a couple of bets in the hope the match doesn't calm down at all...
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals
3.5pts on 3 or more @ 1.92
1pt on 4 or more @ 3.35
0.5pts on 5 or more @ 7.2
Update: The attacking has carried on, and 21 minutes in Sevilla are 2-0 up
Update: Half Time and still 2-0. It's a good job Madrid have Casillas in net or this could have been 4 or 5. One more goal (preferably for Sevilla) will secure profit on the goals bet. Any more after than will be bonuses. Luckily I think Madrid will throw everything forward in the second half in their pursuit of the game, leaving gaps for Sevilla to exploit.
Update: A step forward and a step back... it somehow finishes 2-0. The amount of chances missed in the second half (especially by Sevilla) was unbelievable.
Spanish Results:
2pts Mallorca to beat Valencia @ 2.8 - Lost -2pts
Lay Valencia to lose 1.5pts @ 1.06 - Lost -1.5pts
4pts Sevilla -0.25 v Madrid @ 2.2 - Won +4.56pts
Sevilla v Madrid Total Goals - Lost -5pts
Tonight: -3.94pts
November so far: -6.93pts
Saturday - Results
What a nightmare day... they happen occasionally but it's typical one starts the blog today! A little unlucky with Rooney, Blackburn and the unders in the Everton match but still, a loss is a loss.
Premiership:
Arsenal v United 0.5pts 1-1 @ 7.2 - Layed off for no loss
Arsenal v United 0.5pts Rooney FGS @ 9.0 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Blackburn to beat Liverpool @ 3.15 - Lost -1pt
Everton v Birmingham 2.5pts under 2.5 goals @ 1.79 - Lost -2.5pts
Everton v Birmingham 0.5pts 0-0 @ 12.0 - Lost -0.5pts
Lay Middlesbrough to win 2 points @ 3.3 - Won +1.9pts
4pts Chelsea -1.25 v Wigan @ 2.07 - Won +4.07pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts 0-1 @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts Unquoted score @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Lower League Bets:
2pts lays of:
QPR @ 2.54 - Lost -3.08pts
Scunthorpe @ 2.38 - Won +1.9pts
Watford @ 2.1 - Won +1.9pts
Bristol Rovers @ 2.14 - Won +1.9pts
Carlisle @ 2.78 - Lost -3.56pts
Northampton @ 2.68 - Won +1.9pts
Bury @ 2.62 - Lost -3.24pts
Mansfield @ 2.42 - Lost -2.84pts
Wycombe @ 3.1 - Won +1.9pts
In Running Games:
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61 - Lost -1.22pts
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53 - Lost -1.06pts
Today: -5.03pts
November so far: -2.99pts
Premiership:
Arsenal v United 0.5pts 1-1 @ 7.2 - Layed off for no loss
Arsenal v United 0.5pts Rooney FGS @ 9.0 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Blackburn to beat Liverpool @ 3.15 - Lost -1pt
Everton v Birmingham 2.5pts under 2.5 goals @ 1.79 - Lost -2.5pts
Everton v Birmingham 0.5pts 0-0 @ 12.0 - Lost -0.5pts
Lay Middlesbrough to win 2 points @ 3.3 - Won +1.9pts
4pts Chelsea -1.25 v Wigan @ 2.07 - Won +4.07pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts 0-1 @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Wigan v Chelsea 0.5pts Unquoted score @ 7.2 - Lost -0.5pts
Lower League Bets:
2pts lays of:
QPR @ 2.54 - Lost -3.08pts
Scunthorpe @ 2.38 - Won +1.9pts
Watford @ 2.1 - Won +1.9pts
Bristol Rovers @ 2.14 - Won +1.9pts
Carlisle @ 2.78 - Lost -3.56pts
Northampton @ 2.68 - Won +1.9pts
Bury @ 2.62 - Lost -3.24pts
Mansfield @ 2.42 - Lost -2.84pts
Wycombe @ 3.1 - Won +1.9pts
In Running Games:
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61 - Lost -1.22pts
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53 - Lost -1.06pts
Today: -5.03pts
November so far: -2.99pts
Saturday - In Play
Great start to the weekend's bets, with Rooney scoring for United and 0-1 at half time. I'll quite happily take this result and miss out on the 1-1 score...
Any in-play updates on todays football will be on this post...
And as soon as that's posted it's 1-1 with a Fabregas goal. I'm going to look at holding onto the 1-1 score for a while longer then laying it late on... Edit: 53 minutes in and layed 1-1 @ 3.0 for no loss if the score changes and a 2pts profit if it stays 1-1
81 minutes in: Ronaldo scores to make it 1-2 : Come on United, defend this lead! Glad I traded out for the no loss on the 1-1
Injury time: Gallas scores and it's 2-2
FT: 2-2... and a double whammy - it looks like the first goal may be given as an own goal! We'll have to see how Betfair settle.
15.30 and so far the lower league lays are looking bad... 3 of the teams I've layed are up, Mansfield by 4! Strike rate on these needs to be about 2/3 so need some of my away teams to do the business.
On other notes, the Everton 0-0 bet is down, just hoping for no more goals, Chelsea are 2 up so 2 more for the unquoted please.
15.40 and two more bets, I've layed Villa who are looking out of sorts against Derby and also Fulham who are 1-0 up against Reading
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53
Any in-play updates on todays football will be on this post...
And as soon as that's posted it's 1-1 with a Fabregas goal. I'm going to look at holding onto the 1-1 score for a while longer then laying it late on... Edit: 53 minutes in and layed 1-1 @ 3.0 for no loss if the score changes and a 2pts profit if it stays 1-1
81 minutes in: Ronaldo scores to make it 1-2 : Come on United, defend this lead! Glad I traded out for the no loss on the 1-1
Injury time: Gallas scores and it's 2-2
FT: 2-2... and a double whammy - it looks like the first goal may be given as an own goal! We'll have to see how Betfair settle.
15.30 and so far the lower league lays are looking bad... 3 of the teams I've layed are up, Mansfield by 4! Strike rate on these needs to be about 2/3 so need some of my away teams to do the business.
On other notes, the Everton 0-0 bet is down, just hoping for no more goals, Chelsea are 2 up so 2 more for the unquoted please.
15.40 and two more bets, I've layed Villa who are looking out of sorts against Derby and also Fulham who are 1-0 up against Reading
2pts lay of Villa @ 1.61
2pts lay of Fulham @ 1.53
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