Capello looks done and dusted... but this is the FA...
Layed him to lose 1pt @ 1.03
Thursday 13 December 2007
A Ten Pointer
Last weekend Sale travelled to Bayonne in Rugby's European Challenge Cup and came away with a win 51-12, a 39 points margin with the Frenchmen scoring two early tries. They take on Bayonne tonight in the return at Edgely Park and the handicap is 45.5 points. With McAlister back Sale look even stronger and are a great bet to cover this handicap at 1.92
10pts Sale -45.5 @ 1.92
Update: 6-5 to Sale at HT!! Still, layed Bayonne +45.5 @ 1.15 to lose 1.5pts more if Sale don't get it...
10pts Sale -45.5 @ 1.92
Update: 6-5 to Sale at HT!! Still, layed Bayonne +45.5 @ 1.15 to lose 1.5pts more if Sale don't get it...
Wednesday 12 December 2007
Wednesday Champions League & Carling Cup
Another quick post today as the games have kicked off, but the bets are on:
2pts Rangers v Lyon DRAW @ 3.4 - Lost 2pts
5pts LAY Fenerbache v CSKA @ 1.26 - Lost 1.3pts
3pts LAY PSV v Inter @ 2.3 - Won 2.85pts
4pts Sevilla to win at Slavia Pargue @ 1.94 - Won 3.57pts
3pts Arsenal -1.5 v Steaua Bucharest @ 1.98 - Lost 3pts
1pt Rooney FGS at Roma @ 8.8 - Lost 1pt
2pt treble Arsenal/Barca/Sevilla @ 3.3 - Won 4.46pts
2pt treble Arsenal/Barca/Sporting @ 2.62 - Won 3.08pts
2pt treble Arsenal/Sporting/Sevilla @ 3.55 - Won 4.85pts
2pt treble Sporting/Barca/Sevilla @ 3.85 - Won 5.42pts
2.5pts West Ham to beat Everton @ 2.6 - Lost 2.5pts
Update: With all the teams in my acca 2 goals up but Arsenal only 1 I've layed Arsenal @ 1.13 to win 10pts and cover just in case (to lose 1.3pts). I've also laid the other sides to win 10pts if they lose, losing 0.2pts on Barca, 0.2 on Sevilla and 0.3 on Sporting .The most I'll lose if all 4 teams win is 2pts but all my accas are covered - Lost 2pts
Total: +12.43pts
December so far: -6.08pts
2pts Rangers v Lyon DRAW @ 3.4 - Lost 2pts
5pts LAY Fenerbache v CSKA @ 1.26 - Lost 1.3pts
3pts LAY PSV v Inter @ 2.3 - Won 2.85pts
4pts Sevilla to win at Slavia Pargue @ 1.94 - Won 3.57pts
3pts Arsenal -1.5 v Steaua Bucharest @ 1.98 - Lost 3pts
1pt Rooney FGS at Roma @ 8.8 - Lost 1pt
2pt treble Arsenal/Barca/Sevilla @ 3.3 - Won 4.46pts
2pt treble Arsenal/Barca/Sporting @ 2.62 - Won 3.08pts
2pt treble Arsenal/Sporting/Sevilla @ 3.55 - Won 4.85pts
2pt treble Sporting/Barca/Sevilla @ 3.85 - Won 5.42pts
2.5pts West Ham to beat Everton @ 2.6 - Lost 2.5pts
Update: With all the teams in my acca 2 goals up but Arsenal only 1 I've layed Arsenal @ 1.13 to win 10pts and cover just in case (to lose 1.3pts). I've also laid the other sides to win 10pts if they lose, losing 0.2pts on Barca, 0.2 on Sevilla and 0.3 on Sporting .The most I'll lose if all 4 teams win is 2pts but all my accas are covered - Lost 2pts
Total: +12.43pts
December so far: -6.08pts
Tuesday 11 December 2007
Tuesday Champs League & Championship
Tonight sees the return of the Champions League and a couple of other matches. Really hoping for a decent couple of nights now as it would be great to go into the weekend level for the month.
I'm really pushed for time again tonight as I've got loads to do, so unfortunately just the bets again. I'm going to try and trade if I can between other things:
4pts LAY Liverpool at Marseille @ 1.96 - Lost 3.84pts
4pts LAY Porto v Besiktas @ 1.44 - Lost 1.76pts
4pts LAY Real Madrid v Lazio @ 1.4 - Lost 1.6pts
5pts LAY Schalke v Rosenberg @ 1.4 - Lost 2pts
0.5pts Rosenberg to beat Schalke 2-0 @ 59.8 - Lost 0.5pts
4pts Ipswich to beat Leicester @ 1.91 - Won 3.56pts
3pts LAY Burnley v QPR @ 1.69 - Won 2.85pts
2ps Cardiff to win at Blackpool @ 3.05 - Won 3.96pts
4pts LAY Southend v Oxford @ 1.46 - Lost 2pts
2pts Chelsea IR to win @ 3 - Lost 2pts
Total: -3.33pts
December so far: -18.51pts
I'm really pushed for time again tonight as I've got loads to do, so unfortunately just the bets again. I'm going to try and trade if I can between other things:
4pts LAY Liverpool at Marseille @ 1.96 - Lost 3.84pts
4pts LAY Porto v Besiktas @ 1.44 - Lost 1.76pts
4pts LAY Real Madrid v Lazio @ 1.4 - Lost 1.6pts
5pts LAY Schalke v Rosenberg @ 1.4 - Lost 2pts
0.5pts Rosenberg to beat Schalke 2-0 @ 59.8 - Lost 0.5pts
4pts Ipswich to beat Leicester @ 1.91 - Won 3.56pts
3pts LAY Burnley v QPR @ 1.69 - Won 2.85pts
2ps Cardiff to win at Blackpool @ 3.05 - Won 3.96pts
4pts LAY Southend v Oxford @ 1.46 - Lost 2pts
2pts Chelsea IR to win @ 3 - Lost 2pts
Total: -3.33pts
December so far: -18.51pts
England Manager...
Sometimes you put a bet on after thinking about it, then think actually no... then the odds have moved... You can trade out for a loss or let it ride... this time I'll let it ride
1.5pts Klinsmann to be next England manager @ 14.02
1.5pts Klinsmann to be next England manager @ 14.02
Sri Lanka v England 2nd Test: Update
Into the final session of Day 3... While the match doesn't look brilliant, although Sri Lanka are still in with a shot, they'll have to put another couple of hundred on their current 329-3 (England were all out 351) then try and bowl England out...
The good news is, I didn't read my bet properly... the Vaughan v Jayawardene bet was 1st innings only, so it is already a winner...
Total: +3.77pts
December so far: -15.18pts
The good news is, I didn't read my bet properly... the Vaughan v Jayawardene bet was 1st innings only, so it is already a winner...
Total: +3.77pts
December so far: -15.18pts
Sunday 9 December 2007
Barca v Deportivo
20 minutes left and it's 1-1... I'm backing Deportivo
1pt Deportivo @ 15.5
Total: -1pt
December so far: -18.95pts
1pt Deportivo @ 15.5
Total: -1pt
December so far: -18.95pts
American Football
American Football is a sport I used to watch and bet on a fair bit, doing reasonably on it. But over the last couple of years I've watched and bet less on it, however I'm having a couple of bets tonight.
Firstly my team, Minnesota Vikings, started the season badly, losing 6 of the first 7 games but since then they've been on a roll and now stand 6-6 with a chance of making the playoffs. They travel to San Francisco as a team on fire, amazing on the offensive run and tight defence. They should cover the spread.
4pts Vikings -9.5 @ 2.14 - Won 4.33pts
San Diego are also finding form at the right time and look good to take a win at Tennessee, the odds of just under evens are more than enough.
5pts San Diego @ 1.9 - Won (traded) 3.5pts
I'm also on Pittsburgh to cover the spread at a stuttering New England
3.5pts Pittsburgh +10.5 @ 1.99 - Lost -3.5pts
Total: +4.33pts
December so far: -17.95pts
Firstly my team, Minnesota Vikings, started the season badly, losing 6 of the first 7 games but since then they've been on a roll and now stand 6-6 with a chance of making the playoffs. They travel to San Francisco as a team on fire, amazing on the offensive run and tight defence. They should cover the spread.
4pts Vikings -9.5 @ 2.14 - Won 4.33pts
San Diego are also finding form at the right time and look good to take a win at Tennessee, the odds of just under evens are more than enough.
5pts San Diego @ 1.9 - Won (traded) 3.5pts
I'm also on Pittsburgh to cover the spread at a stuttering New England
3.5pts Pittsburgh +10.5 @ 1.99 - Lost -3.5pts
Total: +4.33pts
December so far: -17.95pts
X Factor Update
So, the final three have been decided and it's Rhydian, Leon and Same Difference. I've layed my stake on SD off for a 23+pts win if they win, no loss if they don't...
An away day to beat the blues
Well, what a night, the Hitman loses his record and the bank is way down. With England and Vaughan starting so very well against Sri Lanka too it's going to be a long, hard month now to turn a profit, never mind hit target. There are a few big prices out there today and hopefully if a couple come in there will be a bank boost.
The Arsenal match should be a pass, with Cesc Fabregas, Alexander Hleb, Mathieu Flamini and Robin van Persie all out and after what happened to Liverpool yesterday they're not worth a real risk. However in their last two matches they've gone in winning at half time only to be really pushed in the second half, Villa couldn't pull it back, but Newcastle did, a very small bet to see it happen again, or even Middlesbrough to go one better, which although highly unlikely is never fully out of the question.
0.3pts HT/FT Arsenal/Draw @17
0.2pts HT/FT Arsenal/Middlesbrough @ 70
On to the other three Premiership games which all see the home sides at odds on, and all of them are worth taking on in my opinion. Bolton were thumped last time out at Liverpool and are coming off the back of a European away day, while Wigan started with a home draw against City under Steve Bruce and after a week to work with his team the former Birmingham boss will be looking to go one better. Add to this Wigan's recent form at the Reebok and they're in the pot.
City travel to Spurs in the other 3pm kick off, and again Spurs are coming off the back of a European away day and face a City side who need to translate their home form into away form if they want to ensure they finish in the European spots. The last 3 times this match has been played it has finished 2-1 to Spurs, but both teams are different now, City are stronger than they have been in decades and Spurs just don't know how to defend. Goals look on the menu and it's a case of who can score more. At the odds you have to side with City, but I'm also going for goals.
Blackburn host West Ham in the final Premiership match of the day, West Ham's record of 5 wins in the last 6 against Rovers speaks for itself. West Ham will be at pretty much full strength (Bellamy is still missing as are a few long term injuries) while Rovers miss Nelsen at the back and more importantly the suspended Bentley. With Pedersen not firing on all cylinders Bentley has been more important than ever this season and he'll be a big miss. If West Ham come out and take the game to Blackburn they may well come home with the three points.
3pts LAY Bolton v Wigan @ 1.99
1pt Wigan to win at Bolton @ 4.8
3pts LAY Spurs v City @ 1.98
1pt City to win at Spurs @ 4.5
3pts LAY Blackburn v West Ham @ 2
1pt West Ham to win at Blackburn @ 4.7
0.8pts Spurs v Ciy 2-2 @ 17.5
0.3pts Spurs v Ciy 2-3 @ 44
0.6pts Spurs v Ciy 3-2 @ 29
0.3pts Spurs v Ciy 3-3 @ 60
Results:
Arsenal/Boro HT/FT - Lost 0.5pts
3pts LAY Bolton v Wigan @ 1.99 - Lost 3pts
1pt Wigan to win at Bolton @ 4.8 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Spurs v City @ 1.98 - Lost 3pts
1pt City to win at Spurs @ 4.5 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Blackburn v West Ham @ 2 - TRADED SEE BELOW
1pt West Ham to win at Blackburn @ 4.7 - Won 5pts
2pts Spurs/City Score - Lost 2pts
Total: -5.5pts
December so far: -22.28pts
The Arsenal match should be a pass, with Cesc Fabregas, Alexander Hleb, Mathieu Flamini and Robin van Persie all out and after what happened to Liverpool yesterday they're not worth a real risk. However in their last two matches they've gone in winning at half time only to be really pushed in the second half, Villa couldn't pull it back, but Newcastle did, a very small bet to see it happen again, or even Middlesbrough to go one better, which although highly unlikely is never fully out of the question.
0.3pts HT/FT Arsenal/Draw @17
0.2pts HT/FT Arsenal/Middlesbrough @ 70
On to the other three Premiership games which all see the home sides at odds on, and all of them are worth taking on in my opinion. Bolton were thumped last time out at Liverpool and are coming off the back of a European away day, while Wigan started with a home draw against City under Steve Bruce and after a week to work with his team the former Birmingham boss will be looking to go one better. Add to this Wigan's recent form at the Reebok and they're in the pot.
City travel to Spurs in the other 3pm kick off, and again Spurs are coming off the back of a European away day and face a City side who need to translate their home form into away form if they want to ensure they finish in the European spots. The last 3 times this match has been played it has finished 2-1 to Spurs, but both teams are different now, City are stronger than they have been in decades and Spurs just don't know how to defend. Goals look on the menu and it's a case of who can score more. At the odds you have to side with City, but I'm also going for goals.
Blackburn host West Ham in the final Premiership match of the day, West Ham's record of 5 wins in the last 6 against Rovers speaks for itself. West Ham will be at pretty much full strength (Bellamy is still missing as are a few long term injuries) while Rovers miss Nelsen at the back and more importantly the suspended Bentley. With Pedersen not firing on all cylinders Bentley has been more important than ever this season and he'll be a big miss. If West Ham come out and take the game to Blackburn they may well come home with the three points.
3pts LAY Bolton v Wigan @ 1.99
1pt Wigan to win at Bolton @ 4.8
3pts LAY Spurs v City @ 1.98
1pt City to win at Spurs @ 4.5
3pts LAY Blackburn v West Ham @ 2
1pt West Ham to win at Blackburn @ 4.7
0.8pts Spurs v Ciy 2-2 @ 17.5
0.3pts Spurs v Ciy 2-3 @ 44
0.6pts Spurs v Ciy 3-2 @ 29
0.3pts Spurs v Ciy 3-3 @ 60
Results:
Arsenal/Boro HT/FT - Lost 0.5pts
3pts LAY Bolton v Wigan @ 1.99 - Lost 3pts
1pt Wigan to win at Bolton @ 4.8 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Spurs v City @ 1.98 - Lost 3pts
1pt City to win at Spurs @ 4.5 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Blackburn v West Ham @ 2 - TRADED SEE BELOW
1pt West Ham to win at Blackburn @ 4.7 - Won 5pts
2pts Spurs/City Score - Lost 2pts
Total: -5.5pts
December so far: -22.28pts
Sri Lanka v England 2nd Test
With a Sri Lanka win in the first test I feel England have had their chance, blowing a first innings lead and falling away at the end when a draw was in sight. Sri Lanka have only lost once in the last 6 years at the SSC and England are missing a major threat in Hoggard. Harmison comes in to replace him and isn't in the form to trouble Sri Lanka. England minus Hoggard aren't great at the best of times, but against a Sri Lanka side with their tails up this could be a hammering.
If Sri Lanka bat first they could put on 500+ and possibly force the follow on, if England bat first they may score 300-350 but not much more. Sri Lanka either way could win this batting once. When the odds form for the Sri Lanka 1st innings runs market I'll look into backing the high scores.
There isn't a whole lot more to say apart from I'm backing Sri Lanka. It would be a full 10pts but there is a slight weather worry so I'm restricting it to 7.5pts with one eye on the draw. I'm also going in on Jayawardene to outscore Vaughan with the Englishman having a 0.5 run start, even if Sri Lanka only bat once this could happen, if they bat twice then the odds are way too high.
7.5pts Sri Lanka to beat England @ 2.14
4.5pts Jayawardene -0.5 v Vaughan @ 1.86
If Sri Lanka bat first they could put on 500+ and possibly force the follow on, if England bat first they may score 300-350 but not much more. Sri Lanka either way could win this batting once. When the odds form for the Sri Lanka 1st innings runs market I'll look into backing the high scores.
There isn't a whole lot more to say apart from I'm backing Sri Lanka. It would be a full 10pts but there is a slight weather worry so I'm restricting it to 7.5pts with one eye on the draw. I'm also going in on Jayawardene to outscore Vaughan with the Englishman having a 0.5 run start, even if Sri Lanka only bat once this could happen, if they bat twice then the odds are way too high.
7.5pts Sri Lanka to beat England @ 2.14
4.5pts Jayawardene -0.5 v Vaughan @ 1.86
Friday 7 December 2007
Saturday's Football
Firstly, as always the Premiership:
Aston Villa v Portsmouth
Villa host a side bang in form in the early kick off at Villa Park, Pompey are unbeaten in the league since 2nd September and have only lost to Arsenal and Chelsea while Villa have only lost 2 of their last 7 (to United and Arsenal)... the odds say Villa, a lot of people say Villa, but I say Pompey. Their away form has been especially good with only Chelsea and Liverpool matching their 5 wins and a victory here can take them into 5th albeit possibly temporarily until City play on Sunday. I think Villa are being overestimated on the back of their 2nd half performance against Arsenal and I was expecting much shorter odds on Pompey. With that in mind I'm going for Pompey, but keeping the draw as no bet.
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5
Chelsea v Sunderland and United v Derby
I'm lumping these games together as I'm going for the same bet on each game. And that is 7+ goals. Everton put 7 past Sunderland only a fortnight ago and although Roy Keane has surely made it clear it must not happen again doesn't mean it can't. Meanwhile Derby have shipped 4 at Spurs, 5 at home to West Ham, 5 at Arsenal and 6 at Chelsea... United to get the seven? Stranger things have happened...
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76
Everton v Fulham
After laying Everton midweek and feeling slightly unlucky it didn't pay off I'm going to try again against a side who were anything but disgraced against United on Monday night. Fulham have been playing some reasonable football and always look like scoring, they've held Chelsea to a draw away and haven't been disgraced against Liverpool, Arsenal or United away from home. If they keep it tight at the back they could get the draw or even nick the win.
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61
Newcastle v Birmingham
Another side priced up on their performance against Arsenal. Newcastle played very well second half midweek and were unlucky not to beat Arsenal, but they are so indifferent it's untrue. Birmingham come to St James' on the back of a great start for new manager Alex McLeish with a last minute winner against Spurs and must fancy themselves to come away with something. At the odds they're a decent bet
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1
Reading v Liverpool
In the evening match Liverpool go to Reading where they have already won twice in 2007 and a win for the league's biggest points gainers away from home looks good again. I will be backing them -1 on the handicap, but the odds haven't fully formed yet so the price will be updated nearer gametime
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13
Championship:
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3
League One:
2pts Bristol Rovers to beat Swansea @ 3.41 - POSTPONED
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86
League Two:
2pts Darlington to win at Morecambe @ 2.46 - POSTPONED
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15
Evening games:
Burnley seem overpriced here, Wolves are winning but not playing well while Burnley's away form is good, an early goal and Wolves may struggle.
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90
Update: Laid Burnley at 3-1 up for a profit win, lose or draw.
Update: 3-2 Burnley and I've gone back in on them for a better win if they do, no loss if they don't... in other news, Liverpool 1-3 down!
Results:
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5 - Won 4.99pts
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15 - PUSH
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24 - Lost 0.5pts
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01 - Won 3.36pts
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76 - Lost 0.5pts
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61 - Lost 1.83pts
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1 - Lost 2pts
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13 - Lost 5pts
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32 - Lost 2.5pts
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3 - Lost 1pt
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86 - Lost 3.5pts
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15 - Lost 2pts
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1 - Won 8pts
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90 - Lost 0.5pts
Total: -2.98pts
December so far: -16.78pts
Aston Villa v Portsmouth
Villa host a side bang in form in the early kick off at Villa Park, Pompey are unbeaten in the league since 2nd September and have only lost to Arsenal and Chelsea while Villa have only lost 2 of their last 7 (to United and Arsenal)... the odds say Villa, a lot of people say Villa, but I say Pompey. Their away form has been especially good with only Chelsea and Liverpool matching their 5 wins and a victory here can take them into 5th albeit possibly temporarily until City play on Sunday. I think Villa are being overestimated on the back of their 2nd half performance against Arsenal and I was expecting much shorter odds on Pompey. With that in mind I'm going for Pompey, but keeping the draw as no bet.
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5
Chelsea v Sunderland and United v Derby
I'm lumping these games together as I'm going for the same bet on each game. And that is 7+ goals. Everton put 7 past Sunderland only a fortnight ago and although Roy Keane has surely made it clear it must not happen again doesn't mean it can't. Meanwhile Derby have shipped 4 at Spurs, 5 at home to West Ham, 5 at Arsenal and 6 at Chelsea... United to get the seven? Stranger things have happened...
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76
Everton v Fulham
After laying Everton midweek and feeling slightly unlucky it didn't pay off I'm going to try again against a side who were anything but disgraced against United on Monday night. Fulham have been playing some reasonable football and always look like scoring, they've held Chelsea to a draw away and haven't been disgraced against Liverpool, Arsenal or United away from home. If they keep it tight at the back they could get the draw or even nick the win.
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61
Newcastle v Birmingham
Another side priced up on their performance against Arsenal. Newcastle played very well second half midweek and were unlucky not to beat Arsenal, but they are so indifferent it's untrue. Birmingham come to St James' on the back of a great start for new manager Alex McLeish with a last minute winner against Spurs and must fancy themselves to come away with something. At the odds they're a decent bet
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1
Reading v Liverpool
In the evening match Liverpool go to Reading where they have already won twice in 2007 and a win for the league's biggest points gainers away from home looks good again. I will be backing them -1 on the handicap, but the odds haven't fully formed yet so the price will be updated nearer gametime
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13
Championship:
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3
League One:
2pts Bristol Rovers to beat Swansea @ 3.41 - POSTPONED
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86
League Two:
2pts Darlington to win at Morecambe @ 2.46 - POSTPONED
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15
Evening games:
Burnley seem overpriced here, Wolves are winning but not playing well while Burnley's away form is good, an early goal and Wolves may struggle.
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90
Update: Laid Burnley at 3-1 up for a profit win, lose or draw.
Update: 3-2 Burnley and I've gone back in on them for a better win if they do, no loss if they don't... in other news, Liverpool 1-3 down!
Results:
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5 - Won 4.99pts
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15 - PUSH
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24 - Lost 0.5pts
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01 - Won 3.36pts
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76 - Lost 0.5pts
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61 - Lost 1.83pts
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1 - Lost 2pts
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13 - Lost 5pts
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32 - Lost 2.5pts
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3 - Lost 1pt
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86 - Lost 3.5pts
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15 - Lost 2pts
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1 - Won 8pts
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90 - Lost 0.5pts
Total: -2.98pts
December so far: -16.78pts
Come on the Hitman...
Saturday's boxing - this post will be updated throughout tomorrow as and when bets on the other fights happen:
Mayweather v Hatton
My original thoughts (written earlier this week) were as follows:
4pts Hatton to beat Mayweather @ 2.8
3pts Hatton to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 4.9
Come on the Hitman...
In other fights Amir Khan takes on Graham Earl. Earl is a handy fighter and by far the best Khan has ever faced. He has beaten some top class fighters and only lost twice to even better fighters. He will come at Khan tonight and Amir may struggle, he's been put down before against a lesser fighter than Earl and a few people may be surprised tonight.
1.5pts Earl to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 7.6 - Lost 1.5pts
Update: Well, Khan in 72 seconds proved me wrong there... possibly more to come before Hatton
Update: Hatton's odds have drifted to 3.2, I've gone in again with another 2.5pts, also covered the draw with 0.5pts @ 22
Current Position: Hatton +11.63pts / Draw 3.81pts / Mayweather -7pts
Update: Layed Lacy @ 1.1 v Manfredo to lose 0.5pts
Total: -12pts
December so far: -13.8pts
Mayweather v Hatton
My original thoughts (written earlier this week) were as follows:
I think Pretty Boy is the better boxer on his day but he has underestimated Hatton while Ricky has really worked hard for this. I think Ricky can win, BUT he's going to have to do it inside the distance, as if this goes to the scorecards I can only see one result and that's not the one any of us wants, but it goes with the territory. You fight in their back yard you have to accept the judges' verdict.I still stand by the Hatton knock out thoughts, but more and more I've got a feeling for him outright too, especially taking on the thoughts of a few good brains... if Hatton is the clear winner he'll get the decision this time "some fights are just too big to cheat on" (cheers to BettingZone's Mike Holden for some words of sense)...
Another minus for Hatton is Cortez has been confirmed as the ref and he won't take any shit from Hatton, he'll break up anything that gets too close up, which again is not a good thing.
I see this going two ways, I don't think PBF will knock Hatton out, Hatton may knock PBF out but if it goes to the judges PBF wins...
4pts Hatton to beat Mayweather @ 2.8
3pts Hatton to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 4.9
Come on the Hitman...
In other fights Amir Khan takes on Graham Earl. Earl is a handy fighter and by far the best Khan has ever faced. He has beaten some top class fighters and only lost twice to even better fighters. He will come at Khan tonight and Amir may struggle, he's been put down before against a lesser fighter than Earl and a few people may be surprised tonight.
1.5pts Earl to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 7.6 - Lost 1.5pts
Update: Well, Khan in 72 seconds proved me wrong there... possibly more to come before Hatton
Update: Hatton's odds have drifted to 3.2, I've gone in again with another 2.5pts, also covered the draw with 0.5pts @ 22
Current Position: Hatton +11.63pts / Draw 3.81pts / Mayweather -7pts
Update: Layed Lacy @ 1.1 v Manfredo to lose 0.5pts
Total: -12pts
December so far: -13.8pts
Get Back On Track...
With some rugby, not much time so just the bets tonight:
4pts Ospreys -14.5pts v Ulster @ 1.91 - Won 3.22pts
4pts Leinster -19.5pts v Edinburgh @ 1.95 - Lost 4pts
Update: Ospreys looks good and I've layed at 1.02 for an even 3.32pts profit either way.
Leinster are only 7 up with 10 minutes to go, so it looks like that bet is a loser. I've laid them to lose 1pt at 1.05... so hoping for either an Edinburgh score, or 2 from Leinster - Lost 1pt
Ok... maybe not back on track...
Total: -1.78pts
December so far: -1.8pts
4pts Ospreys -14.5pts v Ulster @ 1.91 - Won 3.22pts
4pts Leinster -19.5pts v Edinburgh @ 1.95 - Lost 4pts
Update: Ospreys looks good and I've layed at 1.02 for an even 3.32pts profit either way.
Leinster are only 7 up with 10 minutes to go, so it looks like that bet is a loser. I've laid them to lose 1pt at 1.05... so hoping for either an Edinburgh score, or 2 from Leinster - Lost 1pt
Ok... maybe not back on track...
Total: -1.78pts
December so far: -1.8pts
Thursday 6 December 2007
UEFA Cup and Conference
Firstly, the UEFA Cup.
Bolton travel to Red Star Belgrade tonight minus Nicolas Anelka, Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan, Andy O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jussi Jaaskelainen all of whom have been left at home and rested and Ivan Campo who is not registered. They were thrashed 4-0 at the weekend while Red Star, who sit 2nd in the Serbian league, had the weekend off. Red Star must win to have any chance of qualifying and according to their coach will be going straight for the jugular tonight. Bolton will struggle for sure tonight, and although they have drawn all three matches so far they could well be facing their first loss, and possibly a heavy one... The odds seem way out to me...
Spurs travel tonight too and face Anderlecht in a battle of 1st vs 2nd knowing a win will see them through. Anderlecht know the same but have one match left after tonight while Spurs are done. Both sides will be going for the win, and this means one thing in a Spurs match... goals.
Finally Bordeaux host Helsingborgs in another game where surely goals are on the menu. In their last 12 games Bordeaux have scored 21 and conceded 19 while Helsingborgs have scored 31 and conceded 19. I'm going to cover some high scores...
4pts Red Star Belgrade to beat Bolton @ 2.34
3pts Anderlecht v Spurs Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 2-3 @ 60
0.6pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-2 @ 30
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-3 @ 85
1pt Bordeaux v Helsingborgs Unquoted @ 7.6
On to the Conference and on form Cambridge travel to out of form Kidderminster looking to extend their good run of 27 points out of the last possible 36... not much time for detail but they should carry on tonight
2pts Cambridge to beat Kidderminster @ 2.4
Oh dear... also backed Anderlecht in running for a point and everything has lost! Back to where I started the month!
Bugger
Total: -12pts
December so far: -0.02pts
Bolton travel to Red Star Belgrade tonight minus Nicolas Anelka, Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan, Andy O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jussi Jaaskelainen all of whom have been left at home and rested and Ivan Campo who is not registered. They were thrashed 4-0 at the weekend while Red Star, who sit 2nd in the Serbian league, had the weekend off. Red Star must win to have any chance of qualifying and according to their coach will be going straight for the jugular tonight. Bolton will struggle for sure tonight, and although they have drawn all three matches so far they could well be facing their first loss, and possibly a heavy one... The odds seem way out to me...
Spurs travel tonight too and face Anderlecht in a battle of 1st vs 2nd knowing a win will see them through. Anderlecht know the same but have one match left after tonight while Spurs are done. Both sides will be going for the win, and this means one thing in a Spurs match... goals.
Finally Bordeaux host Helsingborgs in another game where surely goals are on the menu. In their last 12 games Bordeaux have scored 21 and conceded 19 while Helsingborgs have scored 31 and conceded 19. I'm going to cover some high scores...
4pts Red Star Belgrade to beat Bolton @ 2.34
3pts Anderlecht v Spurs Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 2-3 @ 60
0.6pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-2 @ 30
0.2pts Bordeaux v Helsingborgs 3-3 @ 85
1pt Bordeaux v Helsingborgs Unquoted @ 7.6
On to the Conference and on form Cambridge travel to out of form Kidderminster looking to extend their good run of 27 points out of the last possible 36... not much time for detail but they should carry on tonight
2pts Cambridge to beat Kidderminster @ 2.4
Oh dear... also backed Anderlecht in running for a point and everything has lost! Back to where I started the month!
Bugger
Total: -12pts
December so far: -0.02pts
Wednesday 5 December 2007
Wednesday Premiership & UEFA Cup
One Premiership match tonight and a few UEFA Cup bets:
In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to a Newcastle side who have not won in 5 matches which includes heavy home defeats to Portsmouth and Liverpool. Arsenal are unbeaten this season in the League and will be looking to extend their lead at the top of the table to 6 points. Arsenal have a few injuries with Flamini joining Fabregas and Hleb on the treatment table but Newcastle have a defensive crisis and are also missing Owen. I think Arsenal will come out for the win all guns blazing and should do it now problem, but they can still be vulnerable at the back. With that in mind I have 2 bets on the game
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11
On to the UEFA Cup and first of all Everton host Russian League leaders Zenit. Everton are minus Yobo, Stubbs and Howard and I think they may struggle at the back. A win for Everton will mean they definitely qualify but they may have to wait tonight against a team who should be in the Champions League next season...
Also in Everton's group are Nurnburg and AZ Alkmaar. Nurnburg are struggling in the league but a win tonight should boost their confidence and set them up for a grand finale in the group stages...
Another team that can qualify tonight is Atletico Madrid with a win in Copenhagen. The Spanish side will be at full strength and should score a couple. Copenhagen meanwhile seem pretty toothless up front and this could be the difference.
Panathinaikos host Locomotiv Moscow in the same group where they have won 2 out of 2. They are a strong side at home and play a side winless in 7 games knowing a win will see them finish the group on top.
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02
Results:
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 - Lost 3pts
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8 - Lost 2.4pts
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46 - Won 2.77pts
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3 - Won 3.09pts
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02 - Won 3.88pts
Total: +3.34pts
December so far: +11.98pts
In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to a Newcastle side who have not won in 5 matches which includes heavy home defeats to Portsmouth and Liverpool. Arsenal are unbeaten this season in the League and will be looking to extend their lead at the top of the table to 6 points. Arsenal have a few injuries with Flamini joining Fabregas and Hleb on the treatment table but Newcastle have a defensive crisis and are also missing Owen. I think Arsenal will come out for the win all guns blazing and should do it now problem, but they can still be vulnerable at the back. With that in mind I have 2 bets on the game
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11
On to the UEFA Cup and first of all Everton host Russian League leaders Zenit. Everton are minus Yobo, Stubbs and Howard and I think they may struggle at the back. A win for Everton will mean they definitely qualify but they may have to wait tonight against a team who should be in the Champions League next season...
Also in Everton's group are Nurnburg and AZ Alkmaar. Nurnburg are struggling in the league but a win tonight should boost their confidence and set them up for a grand finale in the group stages...
Another team that can qualify tonight is Atletico Madrid with a win in Copenhagen. The Spanish side will be at full strength and should score a couple. Copenhagen meanwhile seem pretty toothless up front and this could be the difference.
Panathinaikos host Locomotiv Moscow in the same group where they have won 2 out of 2. They are a strong side at home and play a side winless in 7 games knowing a win will see them finish the group on top.
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02
Results:
3pts Newcastle v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 - Lost 3pts
1pt Arsenal to beat Newcastle 3-0 @ 17.11 - Lost 1pt
3pts LAY Everton v Zenit @ 1.8 - Lost 2.4pts
2pts Nurnburg to beat AZ @ 2.46 - Won 2.77pts
2.5pts Atletico to win at Copenhagen @ 2.3 - Won 3.09pts
4pts Panathinaikos to beat Lokomotiv Moscow @ 2.02 - Won 3.88pts
Total: +3.34pts
December so far: +11.98pts
Sri Lanka v England 1st Test: Final
Just a final result update, Sri Lanka won (just) so it's a winner for me...
Total: +6.07pts
December so far: +8.64pts
Total: +6.07pts
December so far: +8.64pts
Tuesday 4 December 2007
Tuesday Champs League & English Leagues
And there is a fair bit of it. I'm off out to the Natwest Christmas Cocktail party at about 4ish so will try and get my bets up before I go:
First up is Milan v Celtic... and the draw at around evens is a mad price. Just because two teams don't need to win, doesn't mean they won't try to win or want to win. I was tempted to lay the draw, but Celtic, winning away in Europe? I'm not having that... so back Milan? Well, possibly, the odds are good, but I'm going for a couple of correct scores. Putting 2pts on what I see as the most likely correct scores will give me a profit of between 10 and 12pts if any of them come in unless I trade. I'm not sure if I'll be back in time to trade, and don't really like to if I've been out drinking, so they'll probably be left to it...
0.9pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 16.5
0.5pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 28
0.6pts AC Milan v Celtic Unquoted @ 21
Championship:
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94
League 1:
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1
League 2:
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91
Results:
2pts AC Milan v Celtic Scores - Lost 2pts
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64 - Won 2.77pts
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3 - Won 2.47pts
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94 - Lost 4pts
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1 - Lost 2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02 - Lost 3pts
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91 - Won 2.62pts
Total: -3.64pts
December so far: +2.57pts
First up is Milan v Celtic... and the draw at around evens is a mad price. Just because two teams don't need to win, doesn't mean they won't try to win or want to win. I was tempted to lay the draw, but Celtic, winning away in Europe? I'm not having that... so back Milan? Well, possibly, the odds are good, but I'm going for a couple of correct scores. Putting 2pts on what I see as the most likely correct scores will give me a profit of between 10 and 12pts if any of them come in unless I trade. I'm not sure if I'll be back in time to trade, and don't really like to if I've been out drinking, so they'll probably be left to it...
0.9pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 16.5
0.5pts AC Milan to beat Celtic 2-0 @ 28
0.6pts AC Milan v Celtic Unquoted @ 21
Championship:
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94
League 1:
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1
League 2:
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91
Results:
2pts AC Milan v Celtic Scores - Lost 2pts
2pts Bristol City to beat Ipswich @ 2.64 - Won 2.77pts
2pts Watford to win at Colchester @ 2.3 - Won 2.47pts
4pts West Brom -1 v Coventry @ 1.94 - Lost 4pts
2.5pts Oldham to beat Luton @ 2.1 - Lost 2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Wrexham @ 2.02 - Lost 3pts
3pts MK Dons to win at Dagenham & Redbridge @ 1.91 - Won 2.62pts
Total: -3.64pts
December so far: +2.57pts
Sri Lanka v England 1st Test: Update
The end of Day 4 approaches. Quite a pickle I got myself into over the last day or so, but hopefully I've turned it round, and as long as there is a result (which I think is more probable than the odds suggest) all is ok:
Current Position: SL +6.07pts / England +6.3pts / Draw -10pts
Current Position: SL +6.07pts / England +6.3pts / Draw -10pts
Monday 3 December 2007
Monday Night Football
Two matches tonight, first in the Premiership where United host Fulham. United should win and win with ease, but that's reflected in the odds with United best priced 1.2 and short on the HT/FT market. The handicap of evens for -2 doesn't grab me either although I think it will be hit. I'm going the way of correct scores. 7.2 for 3-0 looks good, much better than the 3.7 for the unquoted score.
I'm going for 3-0 with a view to trade out at 2-0 and/or 3-0
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2
Also in the Championship where Scunthorpe host Blackpool. In their combined last 12 games these teams have 3 points between them but score goals:
Scunthorpe at home, 7 overs from 9
Blackpool away, 6 overs from 9
Blackpool have only failed to score twice in their last 18 league games and this game points to goals...
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12
Update: United 2-0 after 60 minutes and stake taken back @ 3.2
Update: 80 minutes and traded a little so 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 are all winning scores
Update: 2-0 United and a win through trading, meanwhile both Blackpool and Scunthorpe score, but it's 1-1
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2 - Won 3.64pts
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 - Lost 2.5pts
Total: +1.14pts
December so far: +6.21pts
I'm going for 3-0 with a view to trade out at 2-0 and/or 3-0
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2
Also in the Championship where Scunthorpe host Blackpool. In their combined last 12 games these teams have 3 points between them but score goals:
Scunthorpe at home, 7 overs from 9
Blackpool away, 6 overs from 9
Blackpool have only failed to score twice in their last 18 league games and this game points to goals...
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12
Update: United 2-0 after 60 minutes and stake taken back @ 3.2
Update: 80 minutes and traded a little so 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 are all winning scores
Update: 2-0 United and a win through trading, meanwhile both Blackpool and Scunthorpe score, but it's 1-1
3pts United to beat Fulham 3-0 @ 7.2 - Won 3.64pts
2.5pts Scunthorpe v Blackpool Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 - Lost 2.5pts
Total: +1.14pts
December so far: +6.21pts
Sunday 2 December 2007
Sunday Football
After getting the month off on the wrong foot yesterday I'm looking for my first good Sunday in a while to get back on track.
First up Hibs travel to Aberdeen with the Dons having played and lost in Spain midweek. Their manager Jimmy Calderwood has already said he's worried about his team being tired and Hibs are at full strength and worth a cheeky point
1pt Hibs to win at Aberdeen @ 2.78
Watching the first 12 minutes of Harrogate Railway v Mansfield in the FA Cup and it's very open, both teams look like scoring so the 2.18 in running on the overs seems a decent bet.
2.5pts H.Railway v Mansfield Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18
Inter Milan have a fantastic away record and also a decent record against Fiorentina, odds of 2.64 on the win are too big.
2pts Inter to win at Fiorentina @ 2.64
Spurs host Birmingham today and are playing three strikers, while Birmingham have 5 in midfield, this match screams goals.
3.5pts Spurs v Birmingham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83
0.5pts Spurs to beat Birmingham 2-0 @ 7.4
I'm going to have my first French League bet of the season, it's a league I rarely bet on but I think I've found some value today. I always think teams are dangerous coming off the back of a spanking, and Bordeaux were spanked last weekend, and spanked good, going down 5-0 at Caen. Apart from that they're having a good season, sat 3rd in the League and very good at home. Toulouse on the other hand are poor, they've won once since 15th September and are particularly bad on the road. Bordeaux can win well today and make up for the last match, I expect them to start well and build from there, winning by two or three.
3pts Bordeaux -0.75 v Toulouse @ 1.97
0.5pts Bordeaux to beat Toulouse 3-0 @ 17.5
On to the Conference where league leaders Aldershot travel to Salisbury. Salisbury have won only 1 in the last 9 (league matches, 11 if counting the cup) and are missing top scorer Matt Tubbs. Granted Salisbury are better at home than away but Aldershot have won 6 of 9 away and a win puts further daylight between them and the chasing pack. It won't be a hammering but I feel a one or two goal win is the order of the day.
2.5pts Aldershot to win at Salisbury @ 2.24
And one final bet (not football though!) as it's the Premier League Snooker final between John Higgins and the Rocket. I'm backing Higgins here, O'Sullivan won 5-1 last night, but Hendry had chances in every frame, if Higgins gets the same chances he'll take them. Of course Ronnie may fly out and demolish Higgins, but at the odds the value is with Higgins
2.5pts Higgins to beat O'Sullivan @ 3
1pt Hibs to win at Aberdeen @ 2.78 - Lost -1pt
2.5pts H.Railway v Mansfield Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 - Won +2.8pts
2pts Inter to win at Fiorentina @ 2.64 - Won +3.11pts
3.5pts Spurs v Birmingham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 - Won +2.76pts
0.5pts Spurs to beat Birmingham 2-0 @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
3pts Bordeaux -0.75 v Toulouse @ 1.97 - Won +1.38pts
0.5pts Bordeaux to beat Toulouse 3-0 @ 17.5 - Lost -0.5pts
2.5pts Aldershot to win at Salisbury @ 2.24 - Won +2.95pts
2.5pts Higgins to beat O'Sullivan @ 3 - Lost -2.5pts
Total: +8.5pts
December so far: +5.07pts
First up Hibs travel to Aberdeen with the Dons having played and lost in Spain midweek. Their manager Jimmy Calderwood has already said he's worried about his team being tired and Hibs are at full strength and worth a cheeky point
1pt Hibs to win at Aberdeen @ 2.78
Watching the first 12 minutes of Harrogate Railway v Mansfield in the FA Cup and it's very open, both teams look like scoring so the 2.18 in running on the overs seems a decent bet.
2.5pts H.Railway v Mansfield Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18
Inter Milan have a fantastic away record and also a decent record against Fiorentina, odds of 2.64 on the win are too big.
2pts Inter to win at Fiorentina @ 2.64
Spurs host Birmingham today and are playing three strikers, while Birmingham have 5 in midfield, this match screams goals.
3.5pts Spurs v Birmingham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83
0.5pts Spurs to beat Birmingham 2-0 @ 7.4
I'm going to have my first French League bet of the season, it's a league I rarely bet on but I think I've found some value today. I always think teams are dangerous coming off the back of a spanking, and Bordeaux were spanked last weekend, and spanked good, going down 5-0 at Caen. Apart from that they're having a good season, sat 3rd in the League and very good at home. Toulouse on the other hand are poor, they've won once since 15th September and are particularly bad on the road. Bordeaux can win well today and make up for the last match, I expect them to start well and build from there, winning by two or three.
3pts Bordeaux -0.75 v Toulouse @ 1.97
0.5pts Bordeaux to beat Toulouse 3-0 @ 17.5
On to the Conference where league leaders Aldershot travel to Salisbury. Salisbury have won only 1 in the last 9 (league matches, 11 if counting the cup) and are missing top scorer Matt Tubbs. Granted Salisbury are better at home than away but Aldershot have won 6 of 9 away and a win puts further daylight between them and the chasing pack. It won't be a hammering but I feel a one or two goal win is the order of the day.
2.5pts Aldershot to win at Salisbury @ 2.24
And one final bet (not football though!) as it's the Premier League Snooker final between John Higgins and the Rocket. I'm backing Higgins here, O'Sullivan won 5-1 last night, but Hendry had chances in every frame, if Higgins gets the same chances he'll take them. Of course Ronnie may fly out and demolish Higgins, but at the odds the value is with Higgins
2.5pts Higgins to beat O'Sullivan @ 3
1pt Hibs to win at Aberdeen @ 2.78 - Lost -1pt
2.5pts H.Railway v Mansfield Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 - Won +2.8pts
2pts Inter to win at Fiorentina @ 2.64 - Won +3.11pts
3.5pts Spurs v Birmingham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 - Won +2.76pts
0.5pts Spurs to beat Birmingham 2-0 @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
3pts Bordeaux -0.75 v Toulouse @ 1.97 - Won +1.38pts
0.5pts Bordeaux to beat Toulouse 3-0 @ 17.5 - Lost -0.5pts
2.5pts Aldershot to win at Salisbury @ 2.24 - Won +2.95pts
2.5pts Higgins to beat O'Sullivan @ 3 - Lost -2.5pts
Total: +8.5pts
December so far: +5.07pts
Saturday 1 December 2007
Premier League Snooker Semi Final
After leaving the Ding v Higgins match alone I'm having a small bet on O'Sullivan v Hendry... Ronnie is fantastic at this type of snooker and is playing well, while Hendry is off form, the 9/1 on 5-0 to the Rocket is too much to resist.
1pt O'Sullivan to win 5-0 @ 10
Total: -1pt
December so far: -3.43pts
1pt O'Sullivan to win 5-0 @ 10
Total: -1pt
December so far: -3.43pts
December 1st Football...
A slightly new direction on my Premiership write ups as any match that is a no bet game I won't be previewing... also the Villa v Arsenal match is an evening kick off so I'll preview that separately.
Chelsea v West Ham
On paper Chelsea should win this game, but they are missing a few players for the visit of West Ham with Essien, Cech, Ballack, Malouda, Carvalho and Ferreira all out. However the Hammers are missing their own fair share of players but will hopefully welcome Ashton and Bowyer back and they could cause Chelsea a few problems if they are on song. As a result I'm going to have a small play on the draw and hope that West Ham can frustrate for a while.
1pt Chelsea v West Ham to Draw @ 6
Blackburn v Newcastle
After going down 0-4 to Villa at Ewood Park midweek Blackburn will be hoping to bounce back against a Newcastle side that have been getting progressively worse as the season has unfolded. The fans have turned on Big Sam and there are rumours that the players are doing the same. To be fair Mark Hughes couldn't have really asked for a better fixture to get back on track and the home fans will be right behind their team as they look to beat a side that has scored three and won on each of their last two visits to Ewood. I think both teams will be looking to ensure there are no repeats of their last results so will hope to keep it tight at the back and as such the unders could be a decent place to start with a view to a possible trade
2.5pts Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92
Sunderland v Derby
Sunderland were battered last time out (7-1 at Everton) while Derby have been hammered a few times this season, today's result depends on how Sunderland bounce back. Roy Keane is the key here, he has gone on record about the 7-1 and he will learn a lot from it. Results like that happen to the best of managers and teams but I think this game will be a testament to the spirit Keane has instilled in his team and they'll show him what they're made of. Derby haven't scored away from home yet this season and I don't expect much relief today
1pt Sunderland to win 3-0 @ 17
Wigan v Manchester City
City with poor away form, Wigan gritty at home, City missing their talisman Elano, Wigan with a new manager. So many variables today means this could go many ways. I see Wigan holding, frustrating, stifling City in the same way they did with Liverpool earlier this season and Arsenal last week, but City under Sven, as I've said before are a different team than last year and they'll need to grind these results out in order to keep in their position towards the top of the table. This could be where they show their mettle.
1pt HT/FT Draw/City @ 7.8
Championship
2pts West Brom to win at Crystal Palace @ 2.48
2pts Sheffield United to win at Coventry @ 2.82
2.5pts Double Watford & Ipswich @ 2.77
FA Cup
3pts Bury to beat Exeter @ 1.88
2pts Brighton to win at Torquay @ 2.42
Scotland
1pt Hearts to beat Celtic @ 4.8
2.5pts Dundee to win at Dunfermline @ 2.22
Update: Layed the draw back at 56 minutes and 0-0 in the Chelsea game for a 3pts profit if it comes in, no loss if it doesn't.
Will update everything at the end of the day, but on to the evening matches, firstly Arsenal travel to Villa looking to stay unbeaten so far this season, Villa are on form and will give Arsenal a game but I think Arsenal will be too strong and in the same way United and Liverpool have done, come away with the win. Both teams also have a few defenders who can get on the score sheet so I've had a small punt on a couple of them.
I've also had an opening bet on the Watford game with a coupld of correct scores, I think Watford will beat Bristol City today and they're a free scoring side, once the first has gone in it could easily be two, three or more. Will also look at over 2.5 goals in play as Bristol City can bang them in too...
1pt HT/FT Draw/Arsenal @ 6.2
0.25pts Gallas FGS @ 29
0.25pts Laursen FGS @ 38
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-0 @ 15
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-1 @ 15
Update: Aresnal 2-1 up but both in the 1st half unfortunately, Villa pressing at the end though so:
LAY Arsenal to lose 1pt @ 1.1
No point starting a new post for this little snippet (as I imagine it's a loser - but worth a punt). Hope were awful on X-Factor tonight, but the public have saved them before so I'm going to have a cheeky half point on who I see as the two other eviction contenders, Leon and Niki
0.25pts Leon to go @ 37.6
0.25pts Niki to go @ 42
1pt Chelsea v West Ham to Draw @ 6 - Traded for no loss
2.5pts Blackburn v Newcastle Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 - Lost -2.5pts
1pt Sunderland to win 3-0 @ 17 - Lost -1pt
1pt HT/FT Draw/City @ 7.8 - Lost -1pt
2pts West Brom to win at Crystal Palace @ 2.48 - Lost -2pts
2pts Sheffield United to win at Coventry @ 2.82 - Won +3.46pts
2.5pts Double Watford & Ipswich @ 2.77 - Lost -2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Exeter @ 1.88 - Won +2.51pts
2pts Brighton to win at Torquay @ 2.42 - Won +2.7pts
1pt Hearts to beat Celtic @ 4.8 - Lost -1pt
2.5pts Dundee to win at Dunfermline @ 2.22 - Won +2.9pts
1pt HT/FT Draw/Arsenal @ 6.2 - Lost -1pt
0.25pts Gallas FGS @ 29 - Lost -0.25pts
0.25pts Laursen FGS @ 38 - Lost -0.25pts
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-0 @ 15 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-1 @ 15 - Lost -0.5pts
LAY Arsenal to lose 1pt @ 1.1 - Lost -1pt
0.25pts Leon to go @ 37.6 - Lost -0.25pts
0.25pts Niki to go @ 42 - Lost -0.25pts
Total: -2.43pts
December so far: -2.43pts
Chelsea v West Ham
On paper Chelsea should win this game, but they are missing a few players for the visit of West Ham with Essien, Cech, Ballack, Malouda, Carvalho and Ferreira all out. However the Hammers are missing their own fair share of players but will hopefully welcome Ashton and Bowyer back and they could cause Chelsea a few problems if they are on song. As a result I'm going to have a small play on the draw and hope that West Ham can frustrate for a while.
1pt Chelsea v West Ham to Draw @ 6
Blackburn v Newcastle
After going down 0-4 to Villa at Ewood Park midweek Blackburn will be hoping to bounce back against a Newcastle side that have been getting progressively worse as the season has unfolded. The fans have turned on Big Sam and there are rumours that the players are doing the same. To be fair Mark Hughes couldn't have really asked for a better fixture to get back on track and the home fans will be right behind their team as they look to beat a side that has scored three and won on each of their last two visits to Ewood. I think both teams will be looking to ensure there are no repeats of their last results so will hope to keep it tight at the back and as such the unders could be a decent place to start with a view to a possible trade
2.5pts Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92
Sunderland v Derby
Sunderland were battered last time out (7-1 at Everton) while Derby have been hammered a few times this season, today's result depends on how Sunderland bounce back. Roy Keane is the key here, he has gone on record about the 7-1 and he will learn a lot from it. Results like that happen to the best of managers and teams but I think this game will be a testament to the spirit Keane has instilled in his team and they'll show him what they're made of. Derby haven't scored away from home yet this season and I don't expect much relief today
1pt Sunderland to win 3-0 @ 17
Wigan v Manchester City
City with poor away form, Wigan gritty at home, City missing their talisman Elano, Wigan with a new manager. So many variables today means this could go many ways. I see Wigan holding, frustrating, stifling City in the same way they did with Liverpool earlier this season and Arsenal last week, but City under Sven, as I've said before are a different team than last year and they'll need to grind these results out in order to keep in their position towards the top of the table. This could be where they show their mettle.
1pt HT/FT Draw/City @ 7.8
Championship
2pts West Brom to win at Crystal Palace @ 2.48
2pts Sheffield United to win at Coventry @ 2.82
2.5pts Double Watford & Ipswich @ 2.77
FA Cup
3pts Bury to beat Exeter @ 1.88
2pts Brighton to win at Torquay @ 2.42
Scotland
1pt Hearts to beat Celtic @ 4.8
2.5pts Dundee to win at Dunfermline @ 2.22
Update: Layed the draw back at 56 minutes and 0-0 in the Chelsea game for a 3pts profit if it comes in, no loss if it doesn't.
Will update everything at the end of the day, but on to the evening matches, firstly Arsenal travel to Villa looking to stay unbeaten so far this season, Villa are on form and will give Arsenal a game but I think Arsenal will be too strong and in the same way United and Liverpool have done, come away with the win. Both teams also have a few defenders who can get on the score sheet so I've had a small punt on a couple of them.
I've also had an opening bet on the Watford game with a coupld of correct scores, I think Watford will beat Bristol City today and they're a free scoring side, once the first has gone in it could easily be two, three or more. Will also look at over 2.5 goals in play as Bristol City can bang them in too...
1pt HT/FT Draw/Arsenal @ 6.2
0.25pts Gallas FGS @ 29
0.25pts Laursen FGS @ 38
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-0 @ 15
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-1 @ 15
Update: Aresnal 2-1 up but both in the 1st half unfortunately, Villa pressing at the end though so:
LAY Arsenal to lose 1pt @ 1.1
No point starting a new post for this little snippet (as I imagine it's a loser - but worth a punt). Hope were awful on X-Factor tonight, but the public have saved them before so I'm going to have a cheeky half point on who I see as the two other eviction contenders, Leon and Niki
0.25pts Leon to go @ 37.6
0.25pts Niki to go @ 42
1pt Chelsea v West Ham to Draw @ 6 - Traded for no loss
2.5pts Blackburn v Newcastle Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 - Lost -2.5pts
1pt Sunderland to win 3-0 @ 17 - Lost -1pt
1pt HT/FT Draw/City @ 7.8 - Lost -1pt
2pts West Brom to win at Crystal Palace @ 2.48 - Lost -2pts
2pts Sheffield United to win at Coventry @ 2.82 - Won +3.46pts
2.5pts Double Watford & Ipswich @ 2.77 - Lost -2.5pts
3pts Bury to beat Exeter @ 1.88 - Won +2.51pts
2pts Brighton to win at Torquay @ 2.42 - Won +2.7pts
1pt Hearts to beat Celtic @ 4.8 - Lost -1pt
2.5pts Dundee to win at Dunfermline @ 2.22 - Won +2.9pts
1pt HT/FT Draw/Arsenal @ 6.2 - Lost -1pt
0.25pts Gallas FGS @ 29 - Lost -0.25pts
0.25pts Laursen FGS @ 38 - Lost -0.25pts
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-0 @ 15 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Watford to beat Bristol City 3-1 @ 15 - Lost -0.5pts
LAY Arsenal to lose 1pt @ 1.1 - Lost -1pt
0.25pts Leon to go @ 37.6 - Lost -0.25pts
0.25pts Niki to go @ 42 - Lost -0.25pts
Total: -2.43pts
December so far: -2.43pts
Sri Lanka v England 1st Test
December starts with a bang with the Test Series between Sri Lanka and England, but first we'll concentrate on the First Test in Kandy.
Kandy is a ground where the draw doesn't often come into play, but the forecasts for the next 5 days aren't great with thunderstorms due Sunday and Monday and an early sunset play may be restricted, I'm going to keep the draw in mind for my bets. Kandy is historically Sri Lanka's worst home ground results wise (the only ground they have lost more than they have won on with six wins and 9 defeats) and the venue is often low scoring.
Both the English batting and bowling line up are relatively inexperienced on the sub-continent but the fast bowlers will be encouraged by the pitch which has favoured the pace in the past and England's general record on the sub-continent is good and Sri Lanka's recent test performance isn't great.
I feel that at sub evens to back Sri Lanka are too low in the market while England and the draw are too high, my usual play would be to back England and hope they can either bat first and start to put on a total or they can get a couple of early wickets but with the worry about the weather I'm wanting the draw on side so will be laying Sri Lanka. With the match starting at 5am UK time I will miss at least the first couple of hours (probably more if I'm honest) so if Sri Lanka start with a bang either with the bat or the ball I could wake up to a pretty bad position... it could go the other way though.
If I'm trading on a cricket match I'll use a maximum larger than my normal bet, with my bank being as it is at the moment I'm setting my maximum exposure on the match at 10pts, but will be opening with a 5pts lay this morning @ 1.95 to open my exposure at 4.75pts
5pts LAY Sri Lanka v England @ 1.9
Update: Day 1 Lunch and Sri Lanka 86-5, lovely to wake up to... but the odds still have Lanka favourites... I've had to wee trade
Current position: SL -6pts / England +7.2pts / Draw Level
Update: SL out for 188 and England lose an early wicket, they're 4-1 but still SL are favourites, England have to be backed here at 2.2
Current Position: SL -10pts / England +11.77pts / Draw -4pts
Update: England finish the day on 49-1 hopefully they can build on that tomorrow
Current Position: SL -10pts / England +10.79pts / Draw +2.01pts
Kandy is a ground where the draw doesn't often come into play, but the forecasts for the next 5 days aren't great with thunderstorms due Sunday and Monday and an early sunset play may be restricted, I'm going to keep the draw in mind for my bets. Kandy is historically Sri Lanka's worst home ground results wise (the only ground they have lost more than they have won on with six wins and 9 defeats) and the venue is often low scoring.
Both the English batting and bowling line up are relatively inexperienced on the sub-continent but the fast bowlers will be encouraged by the pitch which has favoured the pace in the past and England's general record on the sub-continent is good and Sri Lanka's recent test performance isn't great.
I feel that at sub evens to back Sri Lanka are too low in the market while England and the draw are too high, my usual play would be to back England and hope they can either bat first and start to put on a total or they can get a couple of early wickets but with the worry about the weather I'm wanting the draw on side so will be laying Sri Lanka. With the match starting at 5am UK time I will miss at least the first couple of hours (probably more if I'm honest) so if Sri Lanka start with a bang either with the bat or the ball I could wake up to a pretty bad position... it could go the other way though.
If I'm trading on a cricket match I'll use a maximum larger than my normal bet, with my bank being as it is at the moment I'm setting my maximum exposure on the match at 10pts, but will be opening with a 5pts lay this morning @ 1.95 to open my exposure at 4.75pts
5pts LAY Sri Lanka v England @ 1.9
Update: Day 1 Lunch and Sri Lanka 86-5, lovely to wake up to... but the odds still have Lanka favourites... I've had to wee trade
Current position: SL -6pts / England +7.2pts / Draw Level
Update: SL out for 188 and England lose an early wicket, they're 4-1 but still SL are favourites, England have to be backed here at 2.2
Current Position: SL -10pts / England +11.77pts / Draw -4pts
Update: England finish the day on 49-1 hopefully they can build on that tomorrow
Current Position: SL -10pts / England +10.79pts / Draw +2.01pts
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