Saturday's Football

Firstly, as always the Premiership:

Aston Villa v Portsmouth

Villa host a side bang in form in the early kick off at Villa Park, Pompey are unbeaten in the league since 2nd September and have only lost to Arsenal and Chelsea while Villa have only lost 2 of their last 7 (to United and Arsenal)... the odds say Villa, a lot of people say Villa, but I say Pompey. Their away form has been especially good with only Chelsea and Liverpool matching their 5 wins and a victory here can take them into 5th albeit possibly temporarily until City play on Sunday. I think Villa are being overestimated on the back of their 2nd half performance against Arsenal and I was expecting much shorter odds on Pompey. With that in mind I'm going for Pompey, but keeping the draw as no bet.
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5


Chelsea v Sunderland and United v Derby

I'm lumping these games together as I'm going for the same bet on each game. And that is 7+ goals. Everton put 7 past Sunderland only a fortnight ago and although Roy Keane has surely made it clear it must not happen again doesn't mean it can't. Meanwhile Derby have shipped 4 at Spurs, 5 at home to West Ham, 5 at Arsenal and 6 at Chelsea... United to get the seven? Stranger things have happened...
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76


Everton v Fulham

After laying Everton midweek and feeling slightly unlucky it didn't pay off I'm going to try again against a side who were anything but disgraced against United on Monday night. Fulham have been playing some reasonable football and always look like scoring, they've held Chelsea to a draw away and haven't been disgraced against Liverpool, Arsenal or United away from home. If they keep it tight at the back they could get the draw or even nick the win.
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61


Newcastle v Birmingham

Another side priced up on their performance against Arsenal. Newcastle played very well second half midweek and were unlucky not to beat Arsenal, but they are so indifferent it's untrue. Birmingham come to St James' on the back of a great start for new manager Alex McLeish with a last minute winner against Spurs and must fancy themselves to come away with something. At the odds they're a decent bet
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1


Reading v Liverpool

In the evening match Liverpool go to Reading where they have already won twice in 2007 and a win for the league's biggest points gainers away from home looks good again. I will be backing them -1 on the handicap, but the odds haven't fully formed yet so the price will be updated nearer gametime
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13


Championship:
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3

League One:
2pts Bristol Rovers to beat Swansea @ 3.41 - POSTPONED
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86

League Two:
2pts Darlington to win at Morecambe @ 2.46 - POSTPONED
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15

Evening games:
Burnley seem overpriced here, Wolves are winning but not playing well while Burnley's away form is good, an early goal and Wolves may struggle.
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90

Update: Laid Burnley at 3-1 up for a profit win, lose or draw.
Update: 3-2 Burnley and I've gone back in on them for a better win if they do, no loss if they don't... in other news, Liverpool 1-3 down!

Results:
3.5pts Portsmouth -0 v Villa @ 2.5 - Won 4.99pts
3.5pts Chelsea -2 v Sunderland @ 2.15 - PUSH
0.5pts Chelsea v Sunderland 7+ goals @ 24 - Lost 0.5pts
3.5pts United -2.5 v Derby @ 2.01 - Won 3.36pts
0.5pts United v Derby 7+ goals @ 18.76 - Lost 0.5pts
3pts LAY Everton v Fulham @ 1.61 - Lost 1.83pts
2pts Birmingham to win at Newcastle @ 5.1 - Lost 2pts
5pts Liverpool -1 v Reading @ 2.13 - Lost 5pts
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Bristol City @ 2.32 - Lost 2.5pts
1pt Palace to win at Barnsley @ 3.3 - Lost 1pt
3.5pts Gillingham to beat Port Vale @ 1.86 - Lost 3.5pts
2pts Wrexham to win at Dag & Red @ 3.15 - Lost 2pts
2.5pts Burnley to win at Wolves @ 4.1 - Won 8pts
0.5pts Burnley to beat Wolves 3-0 @ 90 - Lost 0.5pts

Total: -2.98pts
December so far: -16.78pts