November Review / December Targets

November so far: +33.19pts
Points Difference: +0.47pts
November Result: +33.66pts
November Target: 34.55pts
Points to Target: -0.89pts

November Hit Rate: 41.71%
November ROI: 6.72%

A reasonable month, some highs - the England v Croatia match stands out - some lows - a couple of longish losing runs but a total profit of +33.66pts can't be sniffed at. Target was almost hit with less than 1pt in it so I'm pretty happy there too... Although the hit rate has fallen on October's figure the ROI (Return On Investment) is up from 6.28% to 6.72% however I staked 500.7pts this month instead of 839.51pts in October which means even though the ROI is up the total profit is down.

My targets of 40%+ hit rate and 5%+ ROI have both been hit again which means I'm going in the right direction, hopefully I can increase my ROI again in December

The main profits came in Champions League and International football (21.49pts and 26.67pts respectively with the Championship bringing in 17.49pts) while the big losses came in the Premiership, League 2 and Foreign football (-14.03pts, -11.95pts and -12.23pts). I'm a little perplexed at the Premiership result as I usually come out on top there, and in October my League 2 result was +23.8pts which I think goes to show that betting on the lower leagues can be so volatile.

I'm going to lay off the Foreign football a little next month as it's my second losing month in this area, but I will still look for the value there. There is a lot more cricket coming up in December which is good as I tend to do well there but only really like to bet on England games, with the Sri Lanka tour starting there will be plenty of opportunities.

The banks currently stands at 206.39pts which means the 20% target for this month is 41.28pts. Hopefully with the cricket and a lot of festive football the target can be hit... There is also one bet open going into December with Same Difference to win the X Factor backed at 21.5 - if they get to the final there should be an opportunity to lay them at reasonable prices.

Starting Bank: 120pts
October Profit: 52.73pts
November Profit: 33.66pts
Current Bank: 206.39pts

December Target: 41.28pts

Friday FA Cup... and IACGMOOH Final

First up the FA Cup game tonight where Isthmian League team Horsham host Swansea in terrible conditions. Horsham have a very good home record but I think the Welsh side should be too strong for them, however they may be frustrated for a while. I've backed the 0-0 with a view to trade at half time...

1pt Horsham v Swansea 0-0 @ 18

Update: Layed off the stake at 8.4
And the lay is about 2 minutes before Swansea score... oh well, no harm done...

The IACGMOOH final is tonight too... come on Janice!

Janice comes second... no loss so no problems... but a tepid end to the month...

Total: +0pts
November so far: +33.19pts

I'm a Celeb - 8th Elimination...

We know it's between Cerys and Jason, I think the odds are slightly out, I would have it much closer than the current 1.36 on Jason and 3.65 on Cerys... and as a result I'm having a small bet on Cerys to go:

1pt Cerys to be eliminated @ 3.65

Short, sweet and a winner

Total: +2.52pts
November so far: +33.19pts

UEFA Cup Football

And once again I'm pushed for time in a busy week, so no reasoning again, and just one bet... rest assured there will be a full month end round up coming and the detail will be back next month:

3pts Woking v Ebbsfleet Over 2.5goals @ 2.34

I'm keeping an eye on Spurs, Bolton and Aberdeen in play for potential bets there, I'm particularly looking at overs if the odds hit over evens in the games...

Update: No time to back anything else tonight!

Total: -3pts
November so far: +30.67pts

Wednesday Champs League and English Football

Pushed for time again tonight, but rest assured there is reasoning behind these bets. As usual will be looking for trades during the games...


Champions League
2pts Milan to win at Benfica @ 2.42 - Lost -2pts
3pts LAY of Lazio v Olympiakos @ 1.88 - Won +2.85pts
3pts LAY of Chelsea at Rosenburg @ 1.69 - Lost -2.07pts
2pts Marseille to win at Besiktas @ 2.8 - Lost -2pts
4pts Celtic to beat Shaktar @ 1.91 - Won +3.46pts
1.5pts Celtic HT/FT v Shaktar @ 3.2 - Lost -1.5pts
4pts Liverpool -1 v Porto @ 1.89 - Won +3.38pts

Premier League:
1pt Blackburn v Villa 0-0 @ 10 - Lost -1pt

Championship:
2pts West Brom to win at Plymouth @ 2.98 - Won +3.76pts

Mug Accumulators:
0.5pts Valencia, Liverpool, Marseille, AC Milan, West Brom & Celtic @ 93.79 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Valencia, Madrid, Wolves, Blackburn to draw, Lay Chelsea, Lay Lazio @ 115.46 - Lost -0.5pts

Total: +3.88pts
November so far: +33.67pts

I'm a Celeb Update:

Layed Janice at 4.9

So now if Janice wins +15pts... no loss otherwise

Tuesday Champs League & Championship

Very short post tonight, just got back from London so no time for a long write up... as always will be looking for options in play too:

4pts Stuttgart to beat Rangers @ 2.18 - Won +4.48pts
3pts United -1 v S. Lisbon @ 2.18 - PUSH
2pts Lyon to beat Barcelona @ 2.6 - Lost -2pts

4pts Ipswich to beat Southampton @ 1.91 - Won +3.46pts
3pts Hull to beat Bristol City @ 1.99 - Lost -3pts
1pt Ipswich, Hull & Watford to win @ 5.86 - Lost -1pt

Total: +1.94pts
November so far: +29.79pts

Sunday Football

And first off to the Championship where West Brom host Wolves in the early derby game. Both teams sit in the top 6 of the table (WBA 3rd and Wolves 6th) and both know a win will lift either of them further up the league. Both teams play their best football at home and although this is a derby match I think the trend will keep up today. West Brom have a good home record against Wolves, you have to go back 11 years for the last time they lost the derby at home and even though odds are skinny I can't see past the West Brom win

3pts West Brom to beat Wolves @ 1.9


Spurs travel to West Ham for the 13.30 kick off in a game that saw 7 goals last season. Both teams have come with an attacking line up again and we could very well see another goal fest with neither side the greatest at the back. West Ham won their last match 5-0, Spurs their last 4-0... any way you look at it this screams goals... I'm going for the old staple in matches where I think there will be goals, as well as chancing a couple of big correct scores and the HT/FT reversal...
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.87
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.08
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 5.81
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.63
0.5pts HT/FT West Ham/Tottenham @ 27
0.5pts HT/FT Tottenham/West Ham @ 30
0.4pts Spurs to win 3-2 @ 29
0.4pts West Ham to win 3-2 @ 32
0.2pts Draw 3-3 @ 60


Update: FUCKING PENALTY MISSES!
1) Gera misses a last minute penalty for West Brom and it finishes 0-0
2) Defoe misses a last minute penalty for Spurs which would have won them the match and me the HT/FT West Ham/Spurs bet, and also brought the 3rd goal in... the match finishes 1-1


Still... Blackburn should help win it back with what should be a win at Craven Cottage. Fulham struggle against the bigger sides while Blackburn have a 100% record this season against teams in the lower half of the table. If they play like they have been doing all season, and don't miss any penalties if they come up, then they should bring home the bacon. They've been one of my strongest fancies all week but it would have been nice to place the bets on an already winning day... as it stands they will hopefully save the day.

I'm on them to start strongly and build from that, hopefully with a goal from David Bentley who has scored 4 times this season, but every time it has been the first goal in the match. And with Santa Cruz not playing today he could play off McCarthy rather than in midfield.
4pts Blackburn to beat Fulham @ 2.38
1pt Blackburn to win 2-0 @ 13.5
2pts HT/FT Blackburn/Blackburn @ 4.3
1pt FGS - Bentley @ 12

Also I'm taking Espanyol DNB at Osasuna, Espanyol have only lost twice all season while Osasuna, although they started well are out of form and not looking great with 1 win in the last 5 games. Keeping the draw as no bet just in case but Espanyol should get a result. I'm also taking an under performing B. Dortmund DNB at Nurnberg in the Bundesliga.
3pts Espanyol DNB @ 2.18
3pts Dortmund DNB @ 2.22

Hopefully at least a few of these will come in and save us from another awful Sunday.

Update: I honestly don't believe it! Fulham get a penalty 5 minutes into the second half... and score it! What is it with penalties today? 3 of them and the two I need are saved, the one I don't goes in. Bollocks, bollocks, bollocks.

Update: Was tempted to have a bit more on Blackburn as they have been on top all match, but didn't in the end. Now 1-1... come on Blackburn... and as I speak Fulham score again! Argh! I'll be laying Fulham as the game goes on, looking to double (max) my current 4pts liability...

Also in Spain, 2 matches are level at 3-3 with 20ish minutes left... I'll be laying the draw in both of them at various odds as the matches draw to a close... looking for liabilities of no more than 4pts in either game and hoping for a goal in at least one... will post the results at FT and hopefully there will be at least one of the two with another goal!

Update: Trading out and Blackburn score... I'm now -2pts on the draw from -4pts... will no trade the draw... and did back to -4pts... still Spain has been better with Espanyol winning in my earlier bet and a 7th goal in each of the games below for profits of:

Atletico Madrid v Valladolid +4.43pts
Levante v Betis +3pts

Still down about 11pts (ish) for the day so far, but it doesn't mean I'm not having one last bet on goals galore in Zaragoza v Getafe... the last eight games between these two sides have had 3+ goals... also having a play on the HT/FT turnaround again:
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.94
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.32
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 7.2
0.4pts Total Goals 6+ @ 16.5
0.2pts Total Goals 7+ @ 43.79
0.5pts HT/FT Zaragoza/Getafe @ 45.44
0.5pts HT/FT Getafe/Zaragoza @ 34

Bring on the goalfest...

Update: 1-1

The less said about today the better
3 winning bets totalling 10.79pts
The rest all losing totalling -27.1pts!!!!


Total: -16.31pts
November so far: +27.85pts
6.69pts behind the monthly target now... a few days to go though so confident of hitting it...

Back on the good stuff...

The internationals are over, all the home nations have the summer off, and we can finally get back to betting on some decent football...

Firstly, the Saturday staple and the Premiership preview...

Newcastle v Liverpool

The early kick off today and the hardest match to predict by a mile. Liverpool, unbeaten (in the league) this season travel to Newcastle who once again are having a mediocre season... They're not doing too badly at home, bar the hammering last time out at the hands of Pompey while Liverpool seem to be saving their beat results for the road (4-2-0), keeping it tight but coming out with the results.

On paper with Newcastle having 1 point from their last 3 games Liverpool look the shout, but two things worry me. Firstly, Benitez has openly stated he doesn't think he has enough time to prepare his team after an international break, and secondly, Liverpool have a very important (must win) Champions League match on Wednesday which could mean he 'saves' a few of his players for then.

Either way it's a case of the long ball merchants with Big Sam's hump it and hope tactics possibly working better minus the injured Owen against the sideways long ball merchants with Rafa's men hoping the flat track bully Torres can steamroller Newcastle's defence. This fixture (both at St James' and Anfield) has a history of great exciting matches but I think today may buck the trend with a tight game...

1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5


Arsenal v Wigan

Arsenal are missing a few players today with Fabregas, Hleb, Flamini, Diaby and Gilberto all out while Wigan welcome Heskey back. Even so this is going to be very difficult for Wigan and I don't blame Steve Bruce for waiting until Monday to start work - the last thing you want is a hammering in your first match in charge.

The last two times these teams have met at Highbury have seen Wigan leading before going on to lose but I don't think they will even be afforded that luxury today as Arsenal look to keep their place at the top of the table and also their unbeaten start to the season intact. The odds on Arsenal don't appeal, neither does the HT/FT as Arsenal may take a little time to warm up. But the Asian Handicap does with Arsenal available at -2. If they win by two it's cash back any more and a win, at over evens it looks a nice bet.

3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18


Birmingham v Portsmouth

The Blues go into today's match having lost manager Steve Bruce and host a Pompey side who, although not having the best record at St Andrews are on form this season especially away from home. The only downer I have on the away side today is they have a fair few international players from all over the world and if tiredness creeps up on them they may struggle towards the end of the game. Redknapp has them well drilled though and at the odds they're worth a small back to kick Birmingham while they're down

1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34


Bolton v Manchester United

United make the short trip (short in distance, about 30 years in evolution) to Bolton today looking to keep up the pressure on Arsenal at the top with Rooney, who bagged a hat-trick
in this fixture last season out with a knock, however United have plenty of strength as back up and should prove too much for a side that haven't beaten them at home since the 1970s.

To be fair Gary Megson looks like he could turn it around and keep Bolton up but with United this week and Liverpool next week the resurgence may have to wait a couple of weeks. I think United will look to start strongly and get this done with...

2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4


Derby v Chelsea

Not a whole lot to say here apart from I really fear for Derby. Chelsea should stroll this game and if they aren't too complacent they should have no problem. It's the evening match so they'll know what they have to do before kick off and they should do it no problem. Simple really and I may look at another bet later today, but for now there is just a small one...

1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9


Everton v Sunderland

Everything about this game screams one thing... no bet! I may look to play in running by laying the leader as although Everton are in form and Sunderland haven't won away this season I see this game as a potential Sunderland win. To be honest I can't put my finger on why but I feel Keane will have his side ready for a scrap and Everton aren't the 'dogs of war' they once were. It's not going to be pretty and, unless something looks good in play, I'm not touching it.


Manchester City v Reading

7-0-0 plays 0-1-5, 11 goals scored at home plays 19 conceded away. Add this to a pretty much full strength City side and I can't see anything except a decent City win. Reading will come to frustrate and spoil, and last season this may have worked, but Sven's City are different, they've got the players, the skill and the talent to break Reading down and the grit to keep battling until they do.

City will win today, but by how many is the question. Five of their 7 home wins have been 1-0 so by all accounts that could be the bet, but I feel they may have more in them against a leaky Reading defence and the odds on them to do so are brilliant. I think this could be the football bet of the season and as such I'm having what is only my third bet over 5pts this season.

10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5


Middlesbrough v Aston Villa

Another game I'm swerving with two massively inconsistent teams and no bet for me, but possibly to reconsider in play if Boro score first.


Other leagues in brief today:
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02

Also a cheeky 0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 on Portsmouth, Man Utd, Bradford, Brighton, Halifax, MK Dons, Dundee & Watford


Update: So far not so good... a few points down today, but Chelsea should do it this evening with one shock from Bolton being enough for today... two chunky bets will take us back in the green (I think, rough mental calculations!)
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9

Update: Slightly better evening, traded a little off on the Chelsea -1.5 to ensure a no loss situation but not a bad evening...
1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5 - Lost -1pt
3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18 - PUSH
1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34 - Won +1.91pts
2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4 - Lost -2pts
1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9 - Lost -1pt
10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5 - PUSH
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16 Lost -2.5pts
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26 - Lost -2pts
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2 - Lost -2pts
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04 - Lost -4pts
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56 - Won +3.71pts
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02 - Won +3.88pts
0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 - Lost -0.5pts
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81 - Won +3.08pts
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9 - Won +3.08pts

Total: +0.66pts
November so far: +44.16

Friday Night Rugby...

Sale travel to Worcester tonight looking to take their Cup form to Sixways. They're unbeaten in the last 3 but need a boost up the Guinness Premiership with their first away win (they've won their 3 at home, lost the 3 away). There is no better team to do it against than Worcester who sit bottom of the league with 1 win in 6.

The big news for Sale is New Zealand international Luke McAlister makes his debut, and although they are missing a few players such as Lund and their Argentinian contingent they can still call on the likes of Sheridan, Cueto and Chabal and should have too much for the Warriors...

4pts Sale -6.5 @ 1.91

Update: Sale come home 15-34

Total: +3.46pts
November so far: +43.50pts

Staines v Stockport (Lets try again...)

The reasoning is already up for this bet here and I'm sticking to my guns... although the odds have changed slightly...

3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.86
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.17
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 6.12
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 13.51

0.75pts Stockport to win 3-0 @ 18.67
0.75pts Stockport to win 3-1 @ 17.5
0.5pts Stockport to win 3-2 @ 28


Update: 1-1 FT
Bugger, but there is still extra time...

Update: 1-1 at HT in ET... I'm going to have a play if this goes to penalties... I'll be laying each team to score each penalty (backing them to miss) Odds are usually c. 1.33 for this so would lay to win 2pts each time... May also trade the 'to qualify' market on the pens too...

Update: Betfair don't put up any penalty markets... so leaving it be tonight

Total: -7pts
November so far: +40.04pts

Tonight's Euro Qualifiers...

First off already 0.5pts down for the day after having a touch on a horse... bah...

Anyway on to the football and brief again tonight, a couple of bets already on and more to follow:
But basically, Holland may not want to top their group for seeding reasons... if they don't win then Germany may not want to later either...

I also fancy Croatia to get something tonight, the odds on England are stupidly low, only a fool would fail to oppose, win, lose or draw... the odds are wrong...

The Czechs really need a win to try and stay in seeding pot 2...

I'm also going for the old favourite on the goals in Spain v N. Ireland. It finished 3-2 in the return match and with N. Ireland needing a win to stand any chance of qualifying they will keep attacking no matter what... 3 goals is money back, anything else is profit...

2.5pts Czech Rep to beat Cyprus @ 1.95
1pt Belarus to beat Holland @ 4.3
1.5pts Croatia to beat England @ 9.4
2pts England v Croatia Draw @ 3.5
2pts Croatia to be leading at HT @ 7.8
0.7pts Croatia to win 0-1 @ 22
0.4pts Croatia to win 0-2 @ 60
0.2pts Croatia to win 0-3 @ 220
0.5pts Croatia to win 1-2 @ 32
0.2pts Croatia to win 1-3 @ 120
0.5pts N. Ireland to beat Spain @ 10
3pts Spain v N. Ireland 3+ goals @ 1.8
1pt Spain v N. Ireland 4+ goals @ 3
0.5pts Spain v N. Ireland 5+ goals @ 5.93
0.5pts Spain v N. Ireland 6+ goals @ 13.44


Update: The Czechs win and Holland are 2-0 down to the mighty Belarus with 20 minutes left, so...
10pts Lay Germany v Wales @ 1.33 (To lose 3.3pts)
0.5pts Back Wales @ 12.5
1pt Germany v Wales 0-0 @ 17.5

Update: Croatia 2-0 up in 15 minutes... layed the half time bet for 10pts+ profit any HT result

Update: Layed the stake on Germany v Wales 0-0 back at 3.9 as it's 0-0 after 50 minutes

Update: Croatia up 2-0 at HT, also backed Germany for my stake back at 2.16 after 65 minutes. N. Ireland lose 1-0 though. Also layed Croatia off at 1.47

Update: Covered the 1-0 to either side in Germany v Wales for a 4.5pts+ profit on either, still 10.5pts profit on 0-0

Update: England score... dodgy penalty and a half... had a little on England at 7

Update: 2-2 England then 2-3... backed a bit more of the draw... will keep topping up on occasion, but not dropping below 10pts profit on Croatia...

Right... time to make some sense of all that after a whole lot of trading...
0.5pts Horsey Bet - Lost -0.5pts
2.5pts Czech Rep to beat Cyprus @ 1.95 - Won +2.26pts
1pt Belarus to beat Holland @ 4.3 - Won +3.14pts
1.5pts Croatia to beat England @ 9.4 - Won +10.27pts
2pts England v Croatia Draw @ 3.5 - Traded
2pts Croatia to be leading at HT @ 7.8 - Won +10.43pts
2pts England v Croatia scores - Lost -2pts
0.5pts N. Ireland to beat Spain @ 10 - Lost -0.5pts
5pts Spain v N. Ireland 3/4/5/6+ goals - Lost -5pts
10pts Lay Germany v Wales @ 1.33 (To lose 3.3pts) - Won +5.93pts
0.5pts Back Wales @ 12.5 - Traded
1pt Germany v Wales 0-0 @ 17.5 - Won +10.55pts

Total: +34.58pts
November so far: +47.04pts

Take Two...

The Stockport match was postponed yesterday, but the bets still stand if it is played before Thursday night, so we'll wait and see...

Tonight I'm really pushed for time (hence the matches have kicked off already!) but my bets are on and I fancy some of the smaller teams... I'm not one to subscribe to the "you've had your chance" school of thought... hoping for a few outsiders...

So:
0.5pts Brighton v Cheltenham 0-0 @ 15.91
4pts Lay Leeds v Hereford @ 1.46
0.5pts Back Hereford @ 8.6
0.2pts Leeds v Hereford 0-3 @ 260
0.4pts Leeds v Hereford 1-3 @ 95
0.4pts Leeds v Hereford 2-3 @ 96.6
3pts Lay Bournemouth v Barrow @ 1.46
0.5pts Back Barrow @ 9.2
2pts Lay Rotherham v Forest Green @ 1.62
0.5pts Back Forest Green @ 6.4


Unlike tomorrow (more of that tomorrow) I fancy England tonight, well the Under 21s at Portugal
3pts England DNB @ 2.05


Update: Not bad... although the U21s are 1-0 down... and a last minute Bournemouth equaliser mean it could have been better too... U21s finishes 1-1 so not too bad!
0.5pts Brighton v Cheltenham 0-0 @ 15.91 - Lost -0.5pts
4pts Lay Leeds v Hereford @ 1.46 - Won +3.8pts
0.5pts Back Hereford @ 8.6 - Won +3.61pts
1pts Leeds v Hereford Correct Score @ 260 - Lost -1pt
3pts Lay Bournemouth v Barrow @ 1.46 - Won +2.85pts
0.5pts Back Barrow @ 9.2 - Lost -0.5pts
2pts Lay Rotherham v Forest Green @ 1.62 - Won +1.9pts
0.5pts Back Forest Green @ 6.4 - Won +2.57pts
3pts England DNB @ 2.05 - Draw.

Total: +12.73pts
November so far: +12.46pts

Let's win it all back...

I hope! No lose even more! The odds on goals in the Staines v Stockport match tonight are sorely tempting as are some of them on goals... Stockport score and they concede, I think they'll probably have too much for Staines in this FA Cup replay, but I wouldn't be surprised if the team which sit in 4th in the Ryman Premier knock in one or two goals as well... especially as the Stockport stand in 'keeper is a bit dodgy by all accounts...

I'm backing the goals and correct scores now as I think the odds will come in... will be looking at the match odds later...

3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.91
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.16
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 6.03
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.82

0.75pts Stockport to win 3-0 @ 18
0.75pts Stockport to win 3-1 @ 17
0.5pts Stockport to win 3-2 @ 26

Sunday's Sport

First up today is Yeovil v Gillingham. Yeovil started the season well but have fallen down the league pretty quickly and are winless in 6 while Gillingham have an away record of 0-1-6 this season. However they have brought new manager Mark Stimson in and he is no stranger to attacking football. His team won 4-0 midweek and the players know they are playing for their places. They will push forward and attack, possibly leaving holes at the back.

Goals look on the cards today and added to this the weather is awful, people will be slipping and sliding everywhere and mistakes look on the cards...

2.5pts Yeovil v Gillingham - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18


A horse I fancy is running today in the 14.55 at Cheltenham, I try and avoid horse betting on this blog / account as I'm not very good at it in general, but this is from a chat with the same guy yesterday, he wasn't sure but said look at it. Looks good and the odds have been coming in so I'm having a cheeky point on

1pt Lead On @ 7.6


Hartlepool should beat Bournemouth today if league position and anticipated league position is anything to go by. But their home form is indifferent and the Cherries away form is good so the odds on Hartlepool (1.6) don't hold much appeal. However both teams can score and concede goals so I'll once again be looking at the overs in this game. I'll possibly consider backing Hartlepool if they hit evens, but for now


3pts Hartlepool v Bournemouth - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.94


I'll update everything together, but on to Spain where Cadiz host Numanacia... Cadiz have one win in last 5 home games. Currently 17th in League scoring 8 goals in 12 games while Numnacia have won 3 of last 5 away games, sitting second in the table having scored 22 goals in 12 games and have the best away record in the league, a couple of bets on this one:

2.5pts Numanacia @ 2.98
1pt Numanacia HT/FT @ 5.3
0.5pts Numanacia to win 2-0 @ 14.5


I've also gone on a double in the South American World Cup Qualifying where I expect Uruguay and Brazil to beat Chile and Peru respectively

2pts Uruguay & Brazil double @ 2.54


Blog keeps logging me out so will fully update tomorrow on the horrors of today... but backed overs in the Brazil match too (3pts on @ 2.06)

Update: Topped up at HT with the score 0-1 so now it stands at... there better be goals!

5pts Peru v Brazil Over 2.5 goals @ 2.14


Awful, awful, awful - I'm back in the red for the month after that day... the main thing is not to panic!

2.5pts Yeovil v Gillingham - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 - Won +2.8pts
1pt Lead On @ 7.6 - Lost -1pt
3pts Hartlepool v Bournemouth - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.94 - Lost -3pts
2.5pts Numanacia @ 2.98 Lost -2.5pts
1pt Numanacia HT/FT @ 5.3 Lost -1pt
0.5pts Numanacia to win 2-0 @ 14.5 Lost -0.5pts
2pts Uruguay & Brazil double @ 2.54 - Lost -2pts
5pts Peru v Brazil Over 2.5 goals @ 2.14 - Lost -5pts

Total: -12.20pts
November so far: -0.27pts

I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here! Update...

After bailing on Janice, I've gone back in with two points at 7. She's getting most of the coverage and is the one getting put up for most trials. Her odds have been creeping in again and I think they will more, especially if she passes a couple of trials

Current book
Janice wins and I win over 22pts... any other in there is a 2pts loss.

Saturday Sport

Well, mainly (if not all) football. I'm off out early tomorrow to watch my team so posting the bets tonight. I'm going to take it pretty easy with it being an international weekend.

Firstly, to the most important match of the weekend where Scotland host Italy, knowing a win will see them through to Euro 2008 while if they draw they will need the Ukraine to do them a favour and beat France on Wednesday. Italy know a draw should be good enough for them to progress as they play the Faroe Islands in their last game.

Italy won the first match between the teams with two goals from Luca Toni and he will be the big threat tomorrow. Scotland have been fantastic this campaign and they will be roared on to qualifying by a packed Hampden Park... if they get through they will deserve it, but I fear Italy is one step too far for them. I think the only chance they have is to attack, attack and attack while Italy sit back and look to counter.

Italy's record in Glasgow is 2 draws and 1 defeat and it won't be easy to change this tomorrow. I think it'll be tight and nervy, but they did it against France, so why not against the World Champions? It's not a match to bet big on so I'm having just the one point on the Scots shocking the World...

1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5


The important match for England's chances takes place in Israel where Russia are the visitors. If Russia win they're through at England's expense and they're big odds on to do so, with talk of Israeli players being bought off etc. What rubbish, Israel will treat this as any other game. They're strong at home, hard to break down and organised. These teams are much closer than the odds suggest, which are balmy. The draw looks the bet here with just a single point on.

In the other game in the group sees Croatia travel to Macedonia knowing a point will be enough to qualify. Croatia are odds on again but I feel they may not go all out, they don't need to... Another one to play small and a single point on the draw here too...

1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5


Germany have already qualified, but know finishing 2nd in their group will guarantee 2nd seeding in the Championships. As 3 of the 4 first seeds are Greece, Austria and Switzerland there are obviously advantages to being seeded second and avoiding some of the other big guns. Maybe a few bad misses will do Germany a power of good... or am I being too cynical?

1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17


The rest of the Euro2008 matches I'm leaving well alone. In the rest of the league matches there are a couple of bets, Leeds on the Asians with a home record of 6-1-0 against poor travellers in Swindon. I'm also taking MK Dons who top League 2 to win at 4th placed Chester who are far better on the road than at the Diva stadium. I'm also having a cheeky point on Brighton to come away from over-rated Orient with a win.

Finally an in form Exeter, unbeaten at home who have just drawn too many matches look good value against a Burton side who, although unbeaten away (both have 3-6-0 records), have a couple of injury doubts. Maybe another win can propel Exeter into what should be a good run of results.

3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32

Hopefully a few points profit from a day of not many great betting opportunities.


Update: A late, late Israel goal and a Macedonia win have hit me today, two lays would have paid dividends... will fully update after the X Factor elimination, but while at football today I was given a tip in the 9.20, so I'm having a small bet on

1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7


Update: The horse wins... which is good as from the bottom two in X Factor, Alisha and Hope, Sharon is left with no acts as Alisha is sent home!
1.5pts Niki @ 12 - Lost -1.5pts
0.5pts Hope @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17 - Lost -1pt
3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06 - PUSH
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52 - Won +2.83pts
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35 - Lost -1pt
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32 - Lost -2pts
1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7 - Won +4.47pts

Total: -1.65pts
November so far: +11.93pts

Friday's Football

25 minutes in to England U21 v Bulgaria U21 and Bulgaria are looking the better side. They're having chances and look strong. Their odds have come in from 17.5 pre match to 10.5 and even with the reduction in odds they look worth a speculative point

1pt Bulgaria U21 to beat England U21 @ 10.5

Update: After 40 minutes against the run of play England go 1-0 up, however it's still all Bulgaria and they probably should have scored twice since the goal so I've layed a bit of England and taken a bit more of Bulgaria

0.75pts Lay England U21 @ 1.14
0.25pts Back Bulgaria U21 @ 55

England (full team) odds on away from home... You must be joking! Not tonight though... they play Austria, who are utter rubbish. If they had to qualify for Euro 2008 they could be propping up their group. England will be looking to go into Wednesday's match on a high and I can see them winning and winning well, the odds on the Asian Handicap are well worth taking. I'm also looking at Crouch to be a menace with Beckham supplying his airborne ammunition.
Also having a touch on 3-0 to England with a view to trade...

4pts England to beat Austria -0.75 @ 2.09
0.5pts Crouch FGS @ 8.4
1pt England to win 3-0 @ 14.5

Full time: U21s win 2-0, senior side 1-0
1pt Bulgaria U21 to beat England U21 @ 10.5 - Lost -1pt
0.75pts Lay England U21 @ 1.14 - Lost -0.75pts
0.25pts Back Bulgaria U21 @ 55 - Lost -0.25pts
4pts England to beat Austria -0.75 @ 2.09 - Won +2.07pts
0.5pts Crouch FGS @ 8.4 - Won +3.52pts
1pt England to win 3-0 @ 14.5 - Lost -1pts

Total: +2.59pts
November so far: +13.58pts

I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here! Update...

Her odds shot down to under 6, but failure to do the trials has led to a drift... I've layed Janice to get out of the bet @ 10.58 for a current no loss situation of 11pts if she wins, no loss if she doesn't... can't see it though unfortunately

X Factor 5th Elimination

Ok, this week's songs are:
Alisha Young - Young Hearts Run Free
Beverley - I’m Every Woman
Hope - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (a Man After Midnight)
Leon - Relight My Fire
Niki - Hot Stuff
Rhydian - Go West
Same Difference - Feels Like I’m In Love

Rhydian is safe no matter what, I also feel Same Difference are safe (as I've pointed out before, they could win the thing and can actually sing!), and Alisha - virtue of the fact she is Sharon's last act and if in the bottom two I think they will keep her in to ensure Sharon still has an act.

This leaves Beverley, Hope, Leon and Niki. Beverley and Hope's song choices are strong as is Leon's while I think Niki may struggle with hers. Beverley's I feel is the strongest of the lot, could be a very good week for her. I also feel that Leon has the fanbase, which, combined with a Take That song will be enough.

Although Niki can sing I feel she is really going to struggle with the song and will be in the bottom two. If she is I think more than likely it'll be either Hope or Alisha in there with her. If it is Alisha then she is saved - if it is Hope then it is touch and go as I think it will go to the audience vote...

Main bet on Niki to go with a saver on Hope.

1.5pts Niki @ 12
0.5pts Hope @ 7.4

Snooker!!

Not much going on tonight so I'm playing the snooker. Snooker is a sport that I enjoy watching but rarely bet on, however when I do I tend to do ok. Tonight there are two Premier League matches... Best of 6 frames which brings the draw into play. The current table stands as:

Hendry W 4 D 1 L 0 PTS 9
Ding W 3 D 1 L 0 PTS 7
O'SullivanW 3 D 0 L 2 PTS 6
Davis W 2 D 0 L 2 PTS 4
White W 0 D 3 L 2 PTS 3
Higgins W 0 D 2 L 2 PTS 2
Robertson W 0 D 1 L 3 PTS 1

Tonight the matches are Ding v Higgins and O'Sullivan v Robertson. Hendry, Ding & Ronnie are through as Davis plays Higgins next week meaning only one more place in the semi finals is up for grabs.

Both Robertson & Higgins must win, but like with anything else, that doesn't mean they will do. Higgins is out of form while Ding is the form player (beating Davis 6-0 last time out) while Robertson is also struggling, especially with break building (he also struggles with the shot clock). Although both Ding and O'Sullivan have qualified I think they'll win tonight... and win well. If either of them turn it on it could be a possible whitewash...

3.5pts Ding to beat Higgins @ 2.58
5pts O'Sullivan to beat Robertson @ 1.77
0.5pts Ding to win 6-0 @ 26
0.5pts O'Sullivan to win 6-0 @ 14

Update: Awful start for Ding... 3-0 down but cannot play any worse... the Ding win bet and 6-0 has gone, but surely Ding has some pride.
1.5pts Ding to draw with Higgins @ 7

Update: Ding had chances with the draw but the mistakes made cost dearly and he lost 2-4. had the chance to level out for no loss, but didn't take it and it's a big loss to start the evening! Come on O'Sul to salvage something!!!

Update: O'Sullivan races into a 5-0 lead and wins the match, I've layed a bit on the 6-0 so the profit is 4.6pts if it is 6-0 and 2.3 if it finishes 5-1

And a good job as a century break for Robertson makes it 5-1. Somehow a winning night!

3.5pts Ding to beat Higgins @ 2.58 - Lost -3.5pts
5pts O'Sullivan to beat Robertson @ 1.77 - Won +3.66pts
0.5pts Ding to win 6-0 @ 26 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts O'Sullivan to win 6-0 @ 14 - Won +2.34pts
1.5pts Ding to draw with Higgins @ 7 - Lost -1.5pts

Total: +0.5pts
November so far: +10.99pts

Johnstone's Paint Trophy

Tonight is the turn of the lower league cup, currently called the Johnstone's Paint Trophy.

There are a couple of matches of interest tonight, the main one of interest being MK Dons at Bournemouth. MK are a strong team and quite deservedly favourites to win League 2, they've a very good away record and will be looking to progress against a Bournemouth side who sit 3rd bottom in League 1 with no home wins and if reports are to be believed missing up to 7 key players. They struggled to find 11 players for their draw with non-league Barrow on Saturday, I backed Barrow on this blog to small stakes and they were unlucky not to win. I'm taking MK to go one better and win tonight in one of my strongest bets of the season...

I'm also going pretty on Doncaster to beat Grimsby. Doncaster are Trophy holders and are doing well in League 1 looking for a play-off place, while Grimsby are struggling at the foot of League 2. Both teams are missing players, but Doncaster are much stronger, and with the away fans expected to possibly equal the home support this will be like a home match for them...

5pts MK Dons to beat Bournemouth @ 2.56
3pts Doncaster to beat Grimsby @ 2
0.5pts Doncaster to win 0-3 @ 26

I've also gone for a small accumulator on Carlisle, Hartlepool, Leeds & Doncaster 1pt @ 6.39

Update: Doncaster are 1-1 so the 0-3 has gone, but MK Dons are 2 up after 20 minutes... I've layed at 1.13 for a profit of just over 6pts if they win, just over 5pts any other result.

Update: Doncaster 1-2 down now... I've thought back to cup shocks in England and if they can happen here why not abroad. Barcelona are 0-0 at lower league Alcoyano tonight in their 1st leg cup tie (after 15 minutes)... I've taken a speculative point that the minnows hold on @ 20
1pt Alcoyano v Barca 0-0 @ 20
and within a few minutes Barca score... oh well, I've had better bets

Update: Doncaster draw and it's a slight winning night so far, but with 15 minutes left in the MK Dons match I'm going for another bet... it's 0-2 and another goal looks pretty likely so I'm on overs:
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72


A lesson in how not to bet... two extra bets turn the evening into a losing one, and bloody Barca only won 0-1 to cap it off!
5pts MK Dons to beat Bournemouth @ 2.56 - Won +6.15pts
3pts Doncaster to beat Grimsby @ 2 - Lost -3pts
0.5pts Doncaster to win 0-3 @ 26 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Accumulator @ 6.39 - Lost -1pts
1pt Alcoyano v Barca 0-0 @ 20 - Lost -1pts
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72 - Lost -1.5pts

Total: -0.85pts
November so far: +10.49pts

Monday Night Football

Two games of interest tonight, Reading host Arsenal and West Brom travel to Coventry.

First up, the Championship game, where West Brom take their indifferent away form to Coventry who are just as up and down at home. I feel this match will be a tight game and with both teams missing strikers I think that chances could be few and far between. I'm not one to usually go for a low scoring match, but I feel this could be what happens tonight. There's just not a lot to go on attacking wise (cue the goals!)

2.5pts Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06
0.5pts Coventry v West Brom 0-0 @ 12


In the Premiership tonight Arsenal travel to Reading knowing a win by 2 or more goals will take them top while Reading look for their 5th home win in 7 games. Away from home Reading are awful, there are no two ways about it, but at home they tend to get results. That said Arsenal came here last season and demolished them (0-4).

Reading will be out to frustrate and could well do that and it's a hard game to bet on... the odds on Arsenal are too short for a play on the away side and the score may be close, so I'm loathe to back them on the handicap market. I do think Arsenal will score, but think they may also concede - so the clean sheet market is out of the window.

There isn't really anything for me on this match except one small first goalscorer bet. Gallas got the late equaliser against United last week, his first of the season. He scored 3 times last season and I'm going to have a speculative half point on him doubling his tally this term.

0.5pts Gallas to score first @ 30


Update: 0-0 at half time at Coventry with the home side a man down, I've layed off my stake for a no loss if it is over 2.5 goals or a 2pts profit if under. I'm holding onto the 0-0 for now, may lay later...
However Flamini made it 1-0 for Arsenal just before half time, so the Gallas bet is down

Update: 2 in 2 minutes for West Brom and the 0-0 is down... glad I layed off the unders now!

Update: Another Brom goal... still no loss on that one.
2.5pts Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06 - Traded out for no loss
0.5pts Coventry v West Brom 0-0 @ 12 - Lost -0.5pts
0.5pts Gallas to score first @ 30 - Lost -0.5pts

Total: -1pts
November so far: +11.34pts

I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!

And another 'specials' bet with the ITV programme returning tonight.

Before I begin, I have allocated a liability of no more than 10pts at any time to this market, although I will try and keep the liability below this...

So far we have the following competitiors announced:
Gemma Atkinson - Actress Hollyoaks
Marc Bannerman - Actor Eastenders
Jason 'J' Brown - Formerly of the boyband Five
John Burton Race - Chef, famous for the show French Leave
Janice Dickinson - 70s supermodel and former judge on America's Next Top Model
Lynne Franks - Public Relations guru
Rodney Marsh - Footballer of the '60s and '70s and controversial ex-Sky Sports pundit
Cerys Matthews - Singer with the band Catatonia
Anna Ryder Richardson - Changing Rooms designer
Malcolm McLaren has already walked prior to the show and his replacement has not yet been announced.

The betting has set itself very much like the start of previous I'm a Celebrity shows with the favourites the well known soap stars etc, with the less well know almost automatically given the position of outsider.

This is one of the reasons why I think Janice Dickinson is a great bet to emulate other outsiders in Carol Thatcher and Matt Willis and win the thing. The former supermodel is a wild woman at the best of times, as can be seen from her prior conquests in and out of the bedroom. She'll be the life and soul, which added to the fact she is utterly, genuinely hilarious makes her a character I believe the public will take to their hearts very quickly.

If people knew more about her then her odds would be a lot shorter, I'm certain of that. They're already coming in as people find out more about her... this interview with Jonathan Ross shows her well on form. I was hoping people didn't find her out for a while and the odds would lengthen before coming in so I missed some of the slightly bigger prices. However her price is still great value.

I've already taken 2pts and am looking to top up for a maximum exposure on her of 4pts, giving me 6pts to play with before hitting the maximum.

Update: 3pts on Janice
I've taken her so far at average odds of 14.45

3pts Janice Dickinson @ 14.45

Super Sunday

And it is as well with no less than six Premiership games plus a plethora of others around Europe.

Birmingham v Aston Villa

First up is the Midlands derby with the 1pm kick off as Villa travel the small distance across the city having not won away yet this season, losing 1 and drawing 3, but if you look at the games they should have got at least a point at Manchester City where they were the better team and hit with something of a sucker punch, they lost a 3 goal lead at Spurs, and in all reality should have beaten Bolton too. Birmingham meanwhile have a mixed record at home (2-1-2) where they have kept it very tight in the main. However I expect today to be different.

Villa are coming into a bit of form and bar their home defeat to Manchester United they haven't lost in their last six games while Birmingham have lost 4 and won just one of theirs. I expect this game to be fairly similar to the Tyne-Tees derby yesterday but I think that unlike Newcastle did Villa will have too much for Birmingham and edge a tight, nervy affair at what is a decent price.

1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7


Chelsea v Everton

Both clubs come into this game off the back of good results in Europe midweek, the point for Chelsea and a win for Everton, and this could, quite possibly be the game of the day. Both sides have a few injuries - Cech, Terry and Ferreira for Chelsea - Johnson, Arteta, Baines, Stubbs and Vaughan for Everton. The most telling stat for me in this game, as it is with most Chelsea home games, is that they haven't lost at Stamford Bridge for 46 games! This run will come to an end at some time, but I don't see today as that day. I just don't think Everton will have enough to beat Chelsea, and I'm loathe to back the blues at odds of circa 1.4 against a team of Everton's undoubted quality.

So, where do we go? The 'no bet' is always an option, but I feel that a correct score may pay dividends. I think with Chelsea's defensive injuries Everton can break through and score at some point, I also think Chelsea should win, and as a rule they don't tend to score many... 2-1 it is.

0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4


Bolton v Middlesbrough

Hmm... this one looks fun! Two poor teams face off at the Reebok today, two teams who currently sit in the bottom 5 of the table and who could easily be in the bottom 5 at the end of the season. Bolton will be on a high following their great comeback in Munich midweek but are on a run of 4 home games without a win, while 'Boro have lost their last 5 away. It doesn't really make for the most exciting of matches on paper.

However I think Megson has got something going already at Bolton, he seems to be quickly winning around the fans who were opposed to his appointment (I think the Bayern result went a long way towards doing this). Bolton also took a weakened squad to Germany in preparation for this game and will be fired up to achieve their 2nd home win of the season. It's not a game to be betting big on, but I think they may just do it, but with Anelka out and Diouf suspended it'll be a game I pass on.


Manchester United v Blackburn

Two of the form teams in the Premiership, United unbeaten at home, Blackburn unbeaten away, United scoring for fun, Blackburn tight at the back. All is set for what should be a good game.

United will be missing the injured Wayne Rooney while Reid isn't in the Blackburn travelling party. I think Blackburn will come to keep it tight and frustrate, and they'll do it well. This isn't going to be a match where United score another four. However I think in the end United should have too much, and knowing a win will take them top (Arsenal play tomorrow) the result will be bashed out.

1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7


Spurs v Wigan

In much the same way I pointed out Bristol City were in a false position at the top of the Championship yesterday, Spurs are in a similar situation at the bottom of the Premiership. Wigan however are not.

With Wigan on a six game losing streak now is the ideal time for Ramos to get his first league win as Spurs boss and begin the slow crawl up the table. Managerless Wigan have an away record of 0-1-5 and this won't get any better today. The Spurs players are fighting for their positions under the new boss and today I feel a few of them may show him exactly what they can do. The odds are a bit skinny for me so I'm looking at Spurs to take the lead early and keep it.

2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12


Portsmouth v Manchester City

For City's 100% 7/7 record at home they've not looked great on the road (1-1-3) losing 0-6 last time out at Chelsea and I'm taking Pompey to pile on the pressure this afternoon. Pompey are also unbeaten at home and City seem to have reached a slightly sticky part of the season, struggling past Sunderland at the COMS last weekend while Pompey destroyed Newcastle away from home.

On their day Pompey can score, and score a lot and City are missing key defender Micah Richards through injury. I'm sure Sven has told City to keep it tight and solid, but the team he is building doesn't play like that... and due to this I think they will struggle. At just odds on Pompey appeal for a good size bet, but I'm splitting it over a couple of Asian Handicaps to give me a slightly better result if Pompey win by more than 1 goal.

2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19


A couple of cheeky accumulators too (I know!)
1pt Bolton, Dundee, Portsmouth, Tottenham, Man Utd @ 11.87
1pt Bolton 2-1, United 2-1, Spurs 2-1, Pompey 3-1 @ Various Odds (1 acca & 4 trebles 0.2 pts each)


Evening bets: Sorry, no time for putting up the reasoning:
Real with a 100% record at home should put on a show tonight, hoping for a couple of early goals...
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14
In the Villarreal v Sevilla match I'm going to go for goals again in a game with two teams in great attacking form, based on 3 or more goals with 3 breaking even...
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.94
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.23
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 5.88
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.48
If there are less than 3 goals it's a 5pts loss, otherwise a profit ranging from just under 1pt with 3 goals to over 12pts with 6+


Results:
A poor day after a good one yesterday saved in the last match of the day. With Pompey failing to score in their draw with City, due to the post, good 'keeping and the unexpected return of Richards... and Real going in level at half time despite being in the lead twice it looked bleak, but the goals in Spain means
1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7 - Won +2.42pts
0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4 - Lost -0.5pt
1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7 - Lost -1pt
2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12 - Won +2.13pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91 - Lost -2pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19 - Lost -2pts
1pt Acca - Lost -1pt
1pt Scores Acca - Lost -1pt
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14 - Lost -2pts
5pts Sevilla/Villarreal goals - Won +6.62pts

Total: +1.67pts
November so far: +12.34pts

X Factor 2007

I'm still kicking myself on the marvellous Rhydian... after bigging him up so to speak with everyone that'd listen before the shows started I didn't back the utterly brilliant and loveable twat at c.30/1... as each week has passed I've been less able to bite the bullet and back him. I think he will win barring a miracle, but I'm loathe to back him now at 1.7ish... so I'm left thinking what or who the miracle will be.

And I can only see that miracle being Same Difference... you may think I'm mad... maybe a little but I think they're great. They're fun, energetic and unlike some of the people left in, they can actually sing too. Tonight they were given a supremely difficult song in 'I don't feel like dancin' and they nailed it... Rhydian will take all the beating, and if he wins good on him as I think he's the most talented contestant in any series of this programme. But with X Factor who knows what can happen!

2pts Same Difference to win the X Factor @ 21.5

Saturday Night Live

And first off with some Boxing...

Tonight sees David 'The Hayemaker' Haye take on the Frenchman Jean-Marc Mormeck and although the odds suggest this may be close I think Haye will have too much power in what will most probably be his last fight at cruiserweight. He has an almost perfect record, only losing 3 years back when he ran out of gas... he's now fitter, stronger and most importantly ready. He'll win, and inside the distance.

2pts Haye by KO, TKO or DQ @ 2.32


And some more boxing: I'm hopefully going to stay awake for this one, but an approximate 4.30am start added to the fact I'm already yawning means I may struggle. But this may well be the fight of the year so I'm determined!

Anyway, on to the fight... Miguel Cotto v Shane Mosley

Before looking at the odds I couldn't split them, yes Cotto is unbeaten in 30 fights while Mosley has lost 4 of his 48 (all on points), yes Cotto has nearly 10 years on his side. But for that age difference Mosley has 8 years more experience, he's fought the bigger fights, he has the height and reach advantage.

I feel a lot of the fight rests on Mosley's jab. If Mosley can keep Cotto at bay and stop him getting his powerful shots to the body in then he's got a good chance... Cotto will come out all guns blazing looking for the fight, it's down to which fighter gets to play his game.

There are a lot of people comparing this fight to Hatton and Tszyu... the young pretender beating the older master... but things don't always turn out that way, witness Calzaghe v Kessler last week, sometimes the old master just has too much...

I'd have priced the fight pretty even, but looking at the odds and Cotto is a big favourite trading at about 1.7 - I fancy the fight to go the whole 12 and I'm going with the older man to take the match...

2pts Mosley by Decision / Tech Decision @ 3.9

Update: Stayed up but the fight wasn't brilliant. Solid fight, nothing spectacular as Cotto takes it by unanimous decision
Total: -2pts
November so far: +10.67pts

Saturday - In Play

67 minutes in, it's Sunderland and a very lucky Newcastle level at 1-1. There is definitely another goal in this game, so I've layed off my stake (1pt) on the draw at 1.8... depending on the next 10 minutes or so I may lay right off on the draw and go for one of the two sides to win...

6 minutes plus injury time left, layed the draw again at 1.36 for at least 1pt profit all round.

Update: Crouch plays, so a cheeky point on 3-0
1pt Liverpool to win 3-0 @ 7.8


Today so far (Stoke/Sheff Utd evening kick off):
1pt DRAW Sunderland v Newcastle @ 3.25 - Won +1.02pts
1pt West Ham to beat Derby @ 2.4 - Won +1.33pts
2pts Ipswich to beat Bristol C @ 2.16 - Won +2.2pts
2pts LAY Palace v QPR @ 2.16 - Won +1.9pts
0.5pts Barrow to beat Bournemouth @ 6 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Harrogate Railways to beat Droylsden @ 4.4 - Won +3.23pts
2pts MK Dons to beat Crewe @ 3 - Lost -2pts
4pts Hibs -1 to beat Gretna @ 1.86 - Push +0pts
0.5pts Acca @ 134.72 - Lost -0.5pts

Total: +6.68pts
November so far: +8.19pts

Evening Update:
2-0 Liverpool, maybe if they'd started playing with more than 10 minutes left!

2.5pts Sheff Utd DNB v Stoke @ 2.25 - Won +2.97pts
1pt Liverpool to win 3-0 @ 7.8 - Lost -1pt

Total: +1.97pts
November so far: +10.16pts

Saturday Football

Only three Premiership matches today, a full Championship programme and the FA Cup in England. I'll be looking at matches here and in the rest of Europe...

Premiership:
Sunderland v Newcastle

Newcastle travel to the Stadium of Light today off the back of a 1-4 home reverse against Portsmouth which saw their fickle fans walking out after just 15 minutes! They will be looking to bounce back, but this isn't the type of match they need today especially with their away form (losing their last 4). Sunderland meanwhile have been playing reasonably well, if not quite getting the results... they were hugely unlucky not to get a point on Monday at City and will look to get at least that return today.

Newcastle are the better side on paper, but with the support of their fans urging them on if Sunderland play like they did on Monday I think they'll get a draw at least.

1pt DRAW Sunderland v Newcastle @ 3.25


Derby v West Ham

Bottom of the league Derby, winless in six and surely doomed to relegation already host a West Ham side who will be eager to get back to winning ways after a couple of draws. It's a funny match to call, West Ham are riddled with injuries, especially up front while Derby just struggle to score (5 goals in 12 games). Derby's major problem is they concede... a lot! 26 goals against this season tells it's own story, although only 6 in their last 5 show they have tightened up somewhat. I think this will be a slow, drawn out death for those at the game but thankfully it isn't live on TV. A lot will depend on who (if anyone) returns for West Ham, but with Ljungberg and Ashton possibly back I think the Hammers may nick this by the single goal.

1pt West Ham to beat Derby @ 2.4


Liverpool v Fulham

In the space of a few days the noises from Anfield have changed from "Rafa out" to "Knight Rafa"... the poor bloke can't win. So which Liverpool will turn up today? The one which won 8-0 midweek, or the one that have drawn 4 out of 5 home league games? Sure Besiktas were awful on Tuesday but the win will have given Liverpool a huge confidence boost. If I was a Liverpool fan the main worry for me would be if Crouch was dropped again and Kuyt or Torres were brought it, although admittedly this game could be perfect for the flat track bully that is Torres.

Fulham have only lost once in the last eight games, a run that includes talking a point from Chelsea and they will come to park the proverbial bus. Liverpool won't find them as easy to break down as they did Besiktas but if they do, they could net a couple. However it's not a match to call at this time I feel, more one to watch to get the feel of with a view to playing in running.


Championship:
Three matches take my eye today in the Championship, Ipswich who have won their first 6 home league games this season (their last 10 overall in all competitions) play a Bristol City side who I feel are in a slightly false position of 3rd in the Championship. I feel Ipswich's attacking style of football will be too much for Bristol C and think a couple of goals will be the difference.
Secondly Palace host QPR with both teams struggling for form this season, Palace are win-less in eight games with 4 points from their last 6 matches while QPR are pulling things slightly around with 11 points in the same period. It won't be a pretty match, but I think QPR just have enough to get a result today.
Sheffield United travel to Stoke with both teams in indifferent form but I think the Blades can build on their home win against Ipswich with a victory against a Stoke side comprehensively turned over by Coventry in their last home game. It won't be easy and will be tightly contested so I'm taking the draw no bet option to be on the safe side.
2pts Ipswich to beat Bristol C @ 2.16
2pts LAY Palace v QPR @ 2.16
2.5pts Sheff Utd DNB v Stoke @ 2.25

FA Cup:
Lots of games today in this potential minefield so I've looked for a bit of value in three games. I'm taking Barrow to make the best of Bournemouth's mammoth journey to the North West coast and sneak a win. Also Harrogate Railways to beat the quite frankly rubbish Droylsden, and MK Dons to bridge the slight gap in League positions to knock out Crewe.
0.5pts Barrow to beat Bournemouth @ 6
1pt Harrogate Railways to beat Droylsden @ 4.4
2pts MK Dons to beat Crewe @ 3

Scotland:
One bet in Scotland today and Hibs look a cert against Gretna who will surely go straight back down this season. It shouldn't be a difficult win so hopefully they will bang a couple in and bring home the money against a Gretna side who just can't score...
4pts Hibs -1 to beat Gretna @ 1.86


I've also gone for a small 0.5pt utter mug accumulator on Darlington, West Ham, Hull, Charlton, Ipswich, Leicester and Oxford Utd
0.5pts Acca @ 134.72

Friday Fight Night

Froch v Reid

On paper this looks a given, however I just don't rate Froch that much though... but I think Reid has gone, it could be a massacre. Much better betting contests tomorrow night so a small interest tonight, Reid has the power to knock Froch out, and at the odds he's worth a small punt.

Taken Robin Reid for 1/8 of a pt to win in each of the rounds for a small interest.
0.125pts Reid Rd 1 @ 170
0.125pts Reid Rd 2 @ 180
0.125pts Reid Rd 3 @ 180
0.125pts Reid Rd 4 @ 150
0.125pts Reid Rd 5 @ 150
0.125pts Reid Rd 6 @ 130
0.125pts Reid Rd 7 @ 150
0.125pts Reid Rd 8 @ 140
0.125pts Reid Rd 9 @ 180
0.125pts Reid Rd 10 @ 180
0.125pts Reid Rd 11 @ 180
0.125pts Reid Rd 12 @ 180

Update: Reid retires at the end of the 5th - I was at least right when I thought Reid had gone!
Total: -1.5pts
November so far: +1.51pts

Friday FA Cup

And Hereford, 2nd in League 2 host Leeds, 7th in League 1 (would be 1st apart from their points deduction) and I think most people will be going for Leeds. However Leeds have had 3 long distance aways in a week (1,200+ miles on the coach) and have brought in a few youngsters for the game tonight. They lost their first match of the season last weekend at Carlisle and Hereford, fresh off the back of a couple of good wins will feel they can put one over the Elland Road side. I'm inclined to agree and will be siding with the bulls...

1pt Hereford to beat Leeds @ 5.5 Lost - 1pts

Update: 0-0 bore draw
1pt Hereford to beat Leeds @ 5.5 - Lost - 1pts

Today: -1pts
November so far: +3.01pts

Thursdays UEFA Cup

After the win last night I'm just concentrating on a few matches tonight, and hoping to build on yesterday to put me in good stead for the weekend. The UEFA Cup is always a minefield too, so i try and concentrate on the English teams more than I would in the Champions League.

Firstly Bolton travel to Munich to play a Bayern side top of the league without key attacking players Anelka and Diouf. I was struggling to see how Bolton would score with these two in the side, but without them the 1.76 available on a Munich clean sheet is a great looking bet.

3pts Bayern Munich clean sheet @ 1.76


Secondly is Larissa +1 against Zenit St Petersburg. Larissa are no pushovers at home, as their win against Blackburn showed and Zenit know 3 points on Saturday could secure their first league win in 25 years. The Zenit coack Dick Advocaat has commented "We first set to win in the Championship Russia. After this we plan to take a seat in Group A of UEFA Cup". With a weakened Zenit side out Larissa may nick this. I'm going draw no bet for a belt and braces approach.

2pts Larissa DNB @ 2.47


Spurs are short odds but I may look at the game in play, but Everton look good against a struggling Nurnberg and a point on them to be winning at half time and full time could bring a nice return

1pt Everton HT/FT v Nurnberg @ 5.2


More possibly to follow as the day progresses.

Update: Larissa go down 2-3 after being 2-1 up but the Bolton team is named and what's going on? They've even changed the 'keeper with Ali Al Habsi playing... I've not been able to resist going in on Munich on the Asians
4pts Bayern Munich -1.75 @ 1.89
1pt Bayern Munich to win 3-0 @ 8

Update: 8 minutes in and a big deflection and Bolton score! That's the clean sheet and the 3-0 down! It's been all Munich too! Only one thing for it! Munich will score, I'm sure of it, and score a few... at the odds now they're a big back... but I'm going to hold on for a few minutes and pick my moment...
And that's now... 20 minutes in... this could go one of two ways... hopefully the right way!
5pts Bayern Munich @ 1.76

Update: 30 gone 1-1... come on Bayern... destroy them!
Update: 48 minutes and 2-1 Bayern... that's a bit more like it... a couple more now please.
Update: 60 in and Bayern take off Ribery!?!? Best player on the pitch by a way, hopefully they'll keep up the pressure.
Update: 79th minute... and it looks like staying this way. Damn it!
Update: 81 minutes and BOLTON score... this is looking like ALL last night's profits down the drain!
Update: 83 minutes... I'm backing Bolton! I shouldn't do as it takes my liability on the game to 6pts, but sod it... I'm about 15pts down tonight already... Come on Bolton ;-)
1pt Bolton @ 26

This may be a moment of madness (probably) but I was going to do it earlier and passed up on it, but I'm pissed off... In for a penny...
5pts Everton to beat Nurnberg @ 2.62

Update: 1/2 way through the first half... Everton could have had a couple by now... come on!
Update: 15 minutes left and another 2.5 points on Everton... surely they must score!
2.5pts Everton to beat Nurnberg @ 4.8

Update: I wonder... is 10 points the charm? It worked last night... just under 10 minutes to go...

Is it needed????

PENALTY!

Arteta... SCORESSSSSSSSSSS

Update: 5 minutes left and layed off at 1.1 for a 15pts profit if Everton win and 10pts if they don't! It's been a bit of kamikaze betting (not advised!) but it's worked...

Update: Needn't have layed off... it's 2-0... money in the bank! Easy this game!!!

3pts Bayern Munich clean sheet @ 1.76 - Lost -3pts
2pts Larissa DNB @ 2.47 - Lost -2pts
1pt Everton HT/FT v Nurnberg @ 5.2 - Lost -1pt
4pts Bayern Munich -1.75 @ 1.89 - Lost -4pts
1pt Bayern Munich to win 3-0 @ 8 - Lost -1pt
5pts Bayern Munich @ 1.76 - Lost -5pts
1pt Bolton @ 26 - Lost -1pt
7.5pts Everton to beat Nurnberg @ 3.35 and layed off 1.8pts @ 1.1 - Won +15.04pts

Today: -1.96pts
November so far: +4.01pts

I really don't want a night like that again in a hurry!