Saturday Sport

Well, mainly (if not all) football. I'm off out early tomorrow to watch my team so posting the bets tonight. I'm going to take it pretty easy with it being an international weekend.

Firstly, to the most important match of the weekend where Scotland host Italy, knowing a win will see them through to Euro 2008 while if they draw they will need the Ukraine to do them a favour and beat France on Wednesday. Italy know a draw should be good enough for them to progress as they play the Faroe Islands in their last game.

Italy won the first match between the teams with two goals from Luca Toni and he will be the big threat tomorrow. Scotland have been fantastic this campaign and they will be roared on to qualifying by a packed Hampden Park... if they get through they will deserve it, but I fear Italy is one step too far for them. I think the only chance they have is to attack, attack and attack while Italy sit back and look to counter.

Italy's record in Glasgow is 2 draws and 1 defeat and it won't be easy to change this tomorrow. I think it'll be tight and nervy, but they did it against France, so why not against the World Champions? It's not a match to bet big on so I'm having just the one point on the Scots shocking the World...

1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5


The important match for England's chances takes place in Israel where Russia are the visitors. If Russia win they're through at England's expense and they're big odds on to do so, with talk of Israeli players being bought off etc. What rubbish, Israel will treat this as any other game. They're strong at home, hard to break down and organised. These teams are much closer than the odds suggest, which are balmy. The draw looks the bet here with just a single point on.

In the other game in the group sees Croatia travel to Macedonia knowing a point will be enough to qualify. Croatia are odds on again but I feel they may not go all out, they don't need to... Another one to play small and a single point on the draw here too...

1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5


Germany have already qualified, but know finishing 2nd in their group will guarantee 2nd seeding in the Championships. As 3 of the 4 first seeds are Greece, Austria and Switzerland there are obviously advantages to being seeded second and avoiding some of the other big guns. Maybe a few bad misses will do Germany a power of good... or am I being too cynical?

1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17


The rest of the Euro2008 matches I'm leaving well alone. In the rest of the league matches there are a couple of bets, Leeds on the Asians with a home record of 6-1-0 against poor travellers in Swindon. I'm also taking MK Dons who top League 2 to win at 4th placed Chester who are far better on the road than at the Diva stadium. I'm also having a cheeky point on Brighton to come away from over-rated Orient with a win.

Finally an in form Exeter, unbeaten at home who have just drawn too many matches look good value against a Burton side who, although unbeaten away (both have 3-6-0 records), have a couple of injury doubts. Maybe another win can propel Exeter into what should be a good run of results.

3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32

Hopefully a few points profit from a day of not many great betting opportunities.


Update: A late, late Israel goal and a Macedonia win have hit me today, two lays would have paid dividends... will fully update after the X Factor elimination, but while at football today I was given a tip in the 9.20, so I'm having a small bet on

1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7


Update: The horse wins... which is good as from the bottom two in X Factor, Alisha and Hope, Sharon is left with no acts as Alisha is sent home!
1.5pts Niki @ 12 - Lost -1.5pts
0.5pts Hope @ 7.4 - Lost -0.5pts
1pt Scotland to beat Italy @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Israel v Russia Draw @ 4.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Macedonia v Croatia Draw @ 3.5 - Lost -1pt
1pt Lay Germany @ 1.17 - Lost -1pt
3pts Leeds -1 v Swindon @ 2.06 - PUSH
2pts MK Dons to beat Chester @ 2.52 - Won +2.83pts
1pt Brighton to beat Orient @ 3.35 - Lost -1pt
2pts Exeter to beat Burton @ 2.32 - Lost -2pts
1pt Tartatartufata @ 5.7 - Won +4.47pts

Total: -1.65pts
November so far: +11.93pts