Super Sunday

And it is as well with no less than six Premiership games plus a plethora of others around Europe.

Birmingham v Aston Villa

First up is the Midlands derby with the 1pm kick off as Villa travel the small distance across the city having not won away yet this season, losing 1 and drawing 3, but if you look at the games they should have got at least a point at Manchester City where they were the better team and hit with something of a sucker punch, they lost a 3 goal lead at Spurs, and in all reality should have beaten Bolton too. Birmingham meanwhile have a mixed record at home (2-1-2) where they have kept it very tight in the main. However I expect today to be different.

Villa are coming into a bit of form and bar their home defeat to Manchester United they haven't lost in their last six games while Birmingham have lost 4 and won just one of theirs. I expect this game to be fairly similar to the Tyne-Tees derby yesterday but I think that unlike Newcastle did Villa will have too much for Birmingham and edge a tight, nervy affair at what is a decent price.

1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7


Chelsea v Everton

Both clubs come into this game off the back of good results in Europe midweek, the point for Chelsea and a win for Everton, and this could, quite possibly be the game of the day. Both sides have a few injuries - Cech, Terry and Ferreira for Chelsea - Johnson, Arteta, Baines, Stubbs and Vaughan for Everton. The most telling stat for me in this game, as it is with most Chelsea home games, is that they haven't lost at Stamford Bridge for 46 games! This run will come to an end at some time, but I don't see today as that day. I just don't think Everton will have enough to beat Chelsea, and I'm loathe to back the blues at odds of circa 1.4 against a team of Everton's undoubted quality.

So, where do we go? The 'no bet' is always an option, but I feel that a correct score may pay dividends. I think with Chelsea's defensive injuries Everton can break through and score at some point, I also think Chelsea should win, and as a rule they don't tend to score many... 2-1 it is.

0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4


Bolton v Middlesbrough

Hmm... this one looks fun! Two poor teams face off at the Reebok today, two teams who currently sit in the bottom 5 of the table and who could easily be in the bottom 5 at the end of the season. Bolton will be on a high following their great comeback in Munich midweek but are on a run of 4 home games without a win, while 'Boro have lost their last 5 away. It doesn't really make for the most exciting of matches on paper.

However I think Megson has got something going already at Bolton, he seems to be quickly winning around the fans who were opposed to his appointment (I think the Bayern result went a long way towards doing this). Bolton also took a weakened squad to Germany in preparation for this game and will be fired up to achieve their 2nd home win of the season. It's not a game to be betting big on, but I think they may just do it, but with Anelka out and Diouf suspended it'll be a game I pass on.


Manchester United v Blackburn

Two of the form teams in the Premiership, United unbeaten at home, Blackburn unbeaten away, United scoring for fun, Blackburn tight at the back. All is set for what should be a good game.

United will be missing the injured Wayne Rooney while Reid isn't in the Blackburn travelling party. I think Blackburn will come to keep it tight and frustrate, and they'll do it well. This isn't going to be a match where United score another four. However I think in the end United should have too much, and knowing a win will take them top (Arsenal play tomorrow) the result will be bashed out.

1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7


Spurs v Wigan

In much the same way I pointed out Bristol City were in a false position at the top of the Championship yesterday, Spurs are in a similar situation at the bottom of the Premiership. Wigan however are not.

With Wigan on a six game losing streak now is the ideal time for Ramos to get his first league win as Spurs boss and begin the slow crawl up the table. Managerless Wigan have an away record of 0-1-5 and this won't get any better today. The Spurs players are fighting for their positions under the new boss and today I feel a few of them may show him exactly what they can do. The odds are a bit skinny for me so I'm looking at Spurs to take the lead early and keep it.

2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12


Portsmouth v Manchester City

For City's 100% 7/7 record at home they've not looked great on the road (1-1-3) losing 0-6 last time out at Chelsea and I'm taking Pompey to pile on the pressure this afternoon. Pompey are also unbeaten at home and City seem to have reached a slightly sticky part of the season, struggling past Sunderland at the COMS last weekend while Pompey destroyed Newcastle away from home.

On their day Pompey can score, and score a lot and City are missing key defender Micah Richards through injury. I'm sure Sven has told City to keep it tight and solid, but the team he is building doesn't play like that... and due to this I think they will struggle. At just odds on Pompey appeal for a good size bet, but I'm splitting it over a couple of Asian Handicaps to give me a slightly better result if Pompey win by more than 1 goal.

2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19


A couple of cheeky accumulators too (I know!)
1pt Bolton, Dundee, Portsmouth, Tottenham, Man Utd @ 11.87
1pt Bolton 2-1, United 2-1, Spurs 2-1, Pompey 3-1 @ Various Odds (1 acca & 4 trebles 0.2 pts each)


Evening bets: Sorry, no time for putting up the reasoning:
Real with a 100% record at home should put on a show tonight, hoping for a couple of early goals...
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14
In the Villarreal v Sevilla match I'm going to go for goals again in a game with two teams in great attacking form, based on 3 or more goals with 3 breaking even...
3pts Total Goals 3+ @ 1.94
1pt Total Goals 4+ @ 3.23
0.5pts Total Goals 5+ @ 5.88
0.5pts Total Goals 6+ @ 12.48
If there are less than 3 goals it's a 5pts loss, otherwise a profit ranging from just under 1pt with 3 goals to over 12pts with 6+


Results:
A poor day after a good one yesterday saved in the last match of the day. With Pompey failing to score in their draw with City, due to the post, good 'keeping and the unexpected return of Richards... and Real going in level at half time despite being in the lead twice it looked bleak, but the goals in Spain means
1.5pts Villa to beat Birmingham @ 2.7 - Won +2.42pts
0.5pts Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 9.4 - Lost -0.5pt
1pt HT Draw / FT United @ 4.7 - Lost -1pt
2pts HT Spurs / FT Spurs @ 2.12 - Won +2.13pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.5 @ 1.91 - Lost -2pts
2pts Portsmouth -0.75 @ 2.19 - Lost -2pts
1pt Acca - Lost -1pt
1pt Scores Acca - Lost -1pt
2pts Real Madrid HT/FT @ 2.14 - Lost -2pts
5pts Sevilla/Villarreal goals - Won +6.62pts

Total: +1.67pts
November so far: +12.34pts