Back on the good stuff...

The internationals are over, all the home nations have the summer off, and we can finally get back to betting on some decent football...

Firstly, the Saturday staple and the Premiership preview...

Newcastle v Liverpool

The early kick off today and the hardest match to predict by a mile. Liverpool, unbeaten (in the league) this season travel to Newcastle who once again are having a mediocre season... They're not doing too badly at home, bar the hammering last time out at the hands of Pompey while Liverpool seem to be saving their beat results for the road (4-2-0), keeping it tight but coming out with the results.

On paper with Newcastle having 1 point from their last 3 games Liverpool look the shout, but two things worry me. Firstly, Benitez has openly stated he doesn't think he has enough time to prepare his team after an international break, and secondly, Liverpool have a very important (must win) Champions League match on Wednesday which could mean he 'saves' a few of his players for then.

Either way it's a case of the long ball merchants with Big Sam's hump it and hope tactics possibly working better minus the injured Owen against the sideways long ball merchants with Rafa's men hoping the flat track bully Torres can steamroller Newcastle's defence. This fixture (both at St James' and Anfield) has a history of great exciting matches but I think today may buck the trend with a tight game...

1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5


Arsenal v Wigan

Arsenal are missing a few players today with Fabregas, Hleb, Flamini, Diaby and Gilberto all out while Wigan welcome Heskey back. Even so this is going to be very difficult for Wigan and I don't blame Steve Bruce for waiting until Monday to start work - the last thing you want is a hammering in your first match in charge.

The last two times these teams have met at Highbury have seen Wigan leading before going on to lose but I don't think they will even be afforded that luxury today as Arsenal look to keep their place at the top of the table and also their unbeaten start to the season intact. The odds on Arsenal don't appeal, neither does the HT/FT as Arsenal may take a little time to warm up. But the Asian Handicap does with Arsenal available at -2. If they win by two it's cash back any more and a win, at over evens it looks a nice bet.

3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18


Birmingham v Portsmouth

The Blues go into today's match having lost manager Steve Bruce and host a Pompey side who, although not having the best record at St Andrews are on form this season especially away from home. The only downer I have on the away side today is they have a fair few international players from all over the world and if tiredness creeps up on them they may struggle towards the end of the game. Redknapp has them well drilled though and at the odds they're worth a small back to kick Birmingham while they're down

1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34


Bolton v Manchester United

United make the short trip (short in distance, about 30 years in evolution) to Bolton today looking to keep up the pressure on Arsenal at the top with Rooney, who bagged a hat-trick
in this fixture last season out with a knock, however United have plenty of strength as back up and should prove too much for a side that haven't beaten them at home since the 1970s.

To be fair Gary Megson looks like he could turn it around and keep Bolton up but with United this week and Liverpool next week the resurgence may have to wait a couple of weeks. I think United will look to start strongly and get this done with...

2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4


Derby v Chelsea

Not a whole lot to say here apart from I really fear for Derby. Chelsea should stroll this game and if they aren't too complacent they should have no problem. It's the evening match so they'll know what they have to do before kick off and they should do it no problem. Simple really and I may look at another bet later today, but for now there is just a small one...

1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9


Everton v Sunderland

Everything about this game screams one thing... no bet! I may look to play in running by laying the leader as although Everton are in form and Sunderland haven't won away this season I see this game as a potential Sunderland win. To be honest I can't put my finger on why but I feel Keane will have his side ready for a scrap and Everton aren't the 'dogs of war' they once were. It's not going to be pretty and, unless something looks good in play, I'm not touching it.


Manchester City v Reading

7-0-0 plays 0-1-5, 11 goals scored at home plays 19 conceded away. Add this to a pretty much full strength City side and I can't see anything except a decent City win. Reading will come to frustrate and spoil, and last season this may have worked, but Sven's City are different, they've got the players, the skill and the talent to break Reading down and the grit to keep battling until they do.

City will win today, but by how many is the question. Five of their 7 home wins have been 1-0 so by all accounts that could be the bet, but I feel they may have more in them against a leaky Reading defence and the odds on them to do so are brilliant. I think this could be the football bet of the season and as such I'm having what is only my third bet over 5pts this season.

10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5


Middlesbrough v Aston Villa

Another game I'm swerving with two massively inconsistent teams and no bet for me, but possibly to reconsider in play if Boro score first.


Other leagues in brief today:
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02

Also a cheeky 0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 on Portsmouth, Man Utd, Bradford, Brighton, Halifax, MK Dons, Dundee & Watford


Update: So far not so good... a few points down today, but Chelsea should do it this evening with one shock from Bolton being enough for today... two chunky bets will take us back in the green (I think, rough mental calculations!)
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9

Update: Slightly better evening, traded a little off on the Chelsea -1.5 to ensure a no loss situation but not a bad evening...
1pt Newcastle v Liverpool 0-0 @ 10.5 - Lost -1pt
3pts Arsenal -2 v Wigan @ 2.18 - PUSH
1.5pts Portsmouth to beat Birmingham @ 2.34 - Won +1.91pts
2pts United HT/FT @ 2.4 - Lost -2pts
1pt Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 9 - Lost -1pt
10pts City -1 v Reading @ 2.5 - PUSH
2.5pts Watford to beat Barnsley @ 2.16 Lost -2.5pts
2pts Brighton to beat Carlisle @ 2.26 - Lost -2pts
2pts Huddersfield to beat Orient @ 2.2 - Lost -2pts
4pts Bradford to beat Stockport @ 2.04 - Lost -4pts
2.5pts Dundee to beat Hamilton @ 2.56 - Won +3.71pts
4pts Charlton DNB v Preston @ 2.02 - Won +3.88pts
0.5pts Acca @ 275.03 - Lost -0.5pts
4pts Chelsea clean sheet @ 1.81 - Won +3.08pts
4pts Chelsea -1.5 @ 1.9 - Won +3.08pts

Total: +0.66pts
November so far: +44.16